Multi‐method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi‐method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL‐2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mass-to-light ratio of rich star clusters

We point out a strong time evolution of the mass-to-light conversion factor, η, commonly used to estimate masses of unresolved star clusters from observed cluster spectrophotometric measures. We present a series of gas-dynamical models, coupled with the Cambridge stellar evolution tracks, to compute line-of-sight velocity dispersions and half-light radii weighted by the luminosity. We explore a range of initial conditions, varying in turn the cluster mass and/or density, and the stellar population’s initial mass function. We find that η, and hence the estimated cluster mass, may increase by as much as a factor of three over time-scales of 50 million yr. We apply these results to an hypothetic cluster mass distribution function (d.f.), and show that the d.f. shape may be strongly affected at the low-mass end by this effect. Fitting truncated isothermal (Michie–King) models to the projected light profile leads to over-estimates of the concentration parameter, c, of δ c≈0.3 compared to the same functional fit applied to the projected mass density.     

Mössbauer,electrokinetic and refined lattice parameters study of synthetic manganoan lipscombite

Manganoan lipscombite (Fe _x ^/2+ , M _y ^/2+ ) Fe _3?(x ^+y)/3+ [OH)_3?(x+y)(PO₄)₂] was synthesized from pure chemicals. From the study of the Mn²⁺/Fe²⁺ atomic ratio by Mössbauer spectra, solubility, and electrokinetic properties, it was found that the crystal structure of lipscombite is not changed substantially by the manganese substitution. The unit cell parameters were determined from Guinier-Hägg X-ray diffraction patterns, which are identical for both synthetic ferrous-ferric and manganoan lipscombite. The two compounds crystallize in the tetragonal system with a=5.3020±0.0005 Å and c=12.8800±0.0005 Å.     

From picket fences to iron gates: suburbanization and gated communities in Phoenix,Las Vegas and Seattle

Suburbanization has been a prominent urban process in the United States since the World War II. It has transformed American cities in profound ways in every single aspect of urban development; from population and wealth distributions, through political organization and affiliations, to the built environment. This paper investigates the link between gated communities and the process of suburbanization in the context of socio-economic inequality. It has been shown time and again in the scholarly literature on suburbanization, that suburban neighborhoods in American cities have been traditionally more affluent and less diverse than central cities. The research on gated communities in the US also shows that they are, on average, more affluent compared to other communities in terms of family income and housing values. Are gated communities then simply a new form of suburban communities? Is the gated community in fact a suburban community with the added element of security features? The paper investigates these questions based on segregation and spatial analyses. The research contributes to the long line of studies on suburbanization, gating and the larger issues of urban inequality.     

A survey of groundwater quality in Tulum region,Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

The city of Tulum, in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) depends almost exclusively on groundwater for water supply. The groundwater is exploited from a coastal aquifer which contains a karst network that is considered as one of the largest ones on earth. Given the nature of karst aquifers, the whole area is very sensitive to contaminants and bacteria transport, because flow paths, residence time and degradation rates differ significantly from what can be observed in the porous aquifer. The present study focuses on isotopes (¹⁸O and ²H), dissolved ions’ concentration and Escherichia coli (E. coli). The result of our survey points out the anthropic impact on groundwater quality. Furthermore, the chloride concentrations illustrate the influence of seawater mixing and geological heterogeneity over the study area. Due to an exponential growth of the tourism industry, the needs in terms of water supply and water treatment increase significantly. Tulum is a coastal city, facing a coral reef and is bordered by the Sian Ka’an biosphere reserve, therefore, an environmental issue is added to the sanitary issue, both being the basis of the local economic development. Our results show that E. coli remains a major issue, as several samples tested were contaminated, in particular those in the city center. Ions’ survey shows an anthropic impact through nitrate, phosphate and fluoride concentrations, but the obtained values are not alarming. Considering the saline intrusion, chloride concentrations indicate that the area below the Tulum city center seems to be less permeable (and maybe less karstified) than the surrounding areas, as groundwater is less subject to seawater mixing than other sampling sites at similar distance to the coast.     

Understanding multiple thresholds of coupled social–ecological systems exposed to natural hazards as external shocks

External suffusion, as selective erosion of fine particles through the contact with a coarser layer and moving away, is an important phenomenon in dams which may lead to their failure. To study the initiation of external suffusion, caused by water level increase upstream the dam, a series of experimental investigations were conducted on laboratory-scale model, in the hydrodynamic laboratory of école polytechnique de Montreal. On the built model, clay/moraine formed the core, sand was used as a filter and gravel performed the role of the pervious layer. Several different models (in geometry and constituent materials) were built and subjected to the water level increase upstream, which resulted in changes in the hydraulic gradient. The results showed no evidence of considerable suffusion on the clay/moraine and sand interface, while the visual and quantitative data show the presence of suffusion on the sand and gravel interface. The results of the experiments show that, when focusing on the critical hydraulic gradient that initiates the movement of the clay/moraine particles, it can be concluded that despite the differences in test conditions, the critical hydraulic gradient has approximately the same value in all cases. It was also shown that increasing the length of the filter layer or applying stair-like slopes does not have great impacts on the initiation of suffusion, whereas the gravel-size distribution has a great impact on the erosion rate.     

Amphibolite facies conditions in the oceanic crust: example of amphibolitized flaser-gabbro and amphibolites from the Chenaillet ophiolite massif (Hautes Alpes,France)

Petrological and mineralogical data on amphibolitized gabbros from an Alpine ophiolite massif (Chenaillet Massif, France) are presented. Comparison with metagabbros dredged from the ocean floor shows that synkinematic amphibolite facies conditions may be reached in gabbros after their initial crystallization in the vicinity of the ridge. It is suggested that sub-horizontal plastic flow took place in the gabbroic layer near the axis of a slowly spreading ocean ridge before the intrusion of diabase dykes. This thermo-tectonic regime which at the Chenaillet produced flaser-gabbros and layers of foliated amphibolites with brown hornblende and pargasite, probably also affected most of the other ophiolitic gabbros of the Piemont zone prior to the low-temperature/high-pressure Alpine metamorphism.