Homogeneous regions for rainfall distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro associated with the risk of natural disasters

Natural Hazards - Understanding the occurrence of natural disasters in regions where the occurrence is high is very important, and it is known that the occurrence of disasters associated with...     

Displacement of a landslide retaining wall and application of an enhanced failure forecasting approach

The 10-mile Slide is contained within an ancient earthflow located in British Columbia, Canada. The landslide has been moving slowly for over 40 years, requiring regular maintenance work along where a highway and a railway track cross the sliding mass. Since 2013, the landslide has shown signs of retrogression. Monitoring prisms were installed on a retaining wall immediately downslope from the railway alignment to monitor the evolution of the retrogression. As of September 2016, cumulative displacements in the horizontal direction approached 4.5 m in the central section of the railway retaining wall. After an initial phase of acceleration, horizontal velocities showed a steadier trend between 3 and 9 mm/day, which was then followed by a second acceleration phase. This paper presents an analysis of the characteristics of the surface displacement vectors measured at the monitoring prisms. Critical insight on the behavior and kinematics of the 10-mile Slide retrogression was gained. An advanced analysis of the trends of inverse velocity plots was also performed to assess the potential for a slope collapse at the 10-mile Slide and to obtain further knowledge on the nature of the sliding surface.     

Latitudinal variation of wind erosion of crater ejecta deposits on Mars

Wind erosion seems to be the dominant process eroding crater ejecta deposits and sorrounding materials on Mars. In the equatorial zone, ejecta deposits are eroded back by scarp recession, where scarp heights appear to be approximately equivalent to ejecta thickness. In mantled areas, escarpments develop by relatively rapid deflation of sorrounding aeolian debris, leaving the ejecta deposit (continuous deposit and zone of high density of secondary craters) standing high above sorrounding terrain. If the rate of scarp recession is controlled by the rate of aeolian undercutting of escarpment bases, then recession rates may scale roughly as the inverse with respect to scarp height. Thus, preferential preservation of ejecta deposits emplaced in thickest aeolian debris may occur. An empirical model developed for wind erosion of ejecta deposits in nonmantled areas suggests that removal of ejecta materials on the average is exceedingly slow (～10^?5m/yr for 10m high scarp). On the other hand, rapid deflation of aeolian debris around crater ejecta is implied. Results suggest high differential aeolian erosion rates that are a function of both grain sizes and large-scale surface roughness. Aeolian activity on Mars has probably been dominated by rapid recycling of fine-grained debris, the bulk of which formed under more erosive conditions prevalent in the early history of Mars.     

Behaviour of metals and nutrients in soils and groundwater of a karst polje

The Croatian south part of the country is mainly composed of strongly krastified carbonate rocks. Also in this south part of Croatia is lacking of large depressions and poljes with thick covers. Some karst poljes and depressions may have thick covers, like for example the Vransko polje. The Vransko polje is characterised by an intensive agricultural activity. At the centre of the polje is located a karst spring (Turanjsko jezero), which is used for the water supply of the town Biograd and its surroundings. Total metals, nutrients (nitrate, ammonia, phosphate), organic matter content and cation exchange capacity (CEC) were measured in soil samples collected from the polje. Metals and nutrients were also measured in the water samples of channel Kotarka (which is passing through the area) and three springs (Turanjsko jezero, Kakma and Tinj). Measured total concentrations of metals of soil samples were treated by R-cluster multivariate statistical analysis. The result of statistical analysis showed grouping of metals with similar behaviour. Content of metals and nutrients were low in the spring samples but high in the water sample of the channel Kotarka, because the channel drains the water from the surroundings. Although agricultural activity in the Vransko polje is high, there is no high anthropogenic influence on groundwater and soil. They are both of good quality.     

Reduced-order optimal control of water flooding using proper orthogonal decomposition

Model-based optimal control of water flooding generally involves multiple reservoir simulations, which makes it into a time-consuming process. Furthermore, if the optimization is combined with inversion, i.e., with updating of the reservoir model using production data, some form of regularization is required to cope with the ill-posedness of the inversion problem. A potential way to address these issues is through the use of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), also known as principal component analysis, Karhunen–Loève decomposition or the method of empirical orthogonal functions. POD is a model reduction technique to generate low-order models using ‘snapshots’ from a forward simulation with the original high-order model. In this work, we addressed the scope to speed up optimization of water-flooding a heterogeneous reservoir with multiple injectors and producers. We used an adjoint-based optimal control methodology that requires multiple passes of forward simulation of the reservoir model and backward simulation of an adjoint system of equations. We developed a nested approach in which POD was first used to reduce the state space dimensions of both the forward model and the adjoint system. After obtaining an optimized injection and production strategy using the reduced-order system, we verified the results using the original, high-order model. If necessary, we repeated the optimization cycle using new reduced-order systems based on snapshots from the verification run. We tested the methodology on a reservoir model with 4050 states (2025 pressures, 2025 saturations) and an adjoint model of 4050 states (Lagrange multipliers). We obtained reduced-order models with 20–100 states only, which produced almost identical optimized flooding strategies as compared to those obtained using the high-order models. The maximum achieved reduction in computing time was 35%.     

Mechanisms for ground-surface fracturing and incipient slope failure associated with the 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna, Italy: analysis of ephemeral field data

During the July–August 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna development of extensional fractures/faults and grabens accompanied magma intrusion and subsequent volcanic activity. During the first days of the eruption, we performed an analysis of attitude, displacement and propagation of fractures and faults exposed on the ground surface in two sites, Torre del Filosofo and Valle del Leone, located along the same fracture system in the region surrounding the Valle del Bove depression on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. Fractures and faults formed as the consequence of a shallow intruding dyke system that fed the several volcanic centres developed along the fracture system. The investigated sites differ in slope attitude and in geometrical relationships between fractures and slopes. In particular, the fracture system propagated parallel to the gentle slope (<7° dip) in the Torre del Filosofo area, and perpendicular to the steep slope (25° dip) in the Valle del Leone area. In the Torre del Filosofo area, slight graben subsidence and horizontal extension of the ground surface by about 3 m were recorded. In the Valle del Leone area, extensional faulting forming a larger and deeper graben with horizontal extension of the ground surface by about 10 m was recorded. For the Valle del Leone area, we assessed a downhill dip of 14° for the graben master fault at the structural level beneath the graben where the fault dip shallows. These results suggest that dyke intrusion at Mount Etna, and particularly in the region surrounding the Valle del Bove depression, may be at the origin of slope failure and subsequent slumps where boundary conditions, i.e. geometry of dyke, slope dip and initial shear stress, amongst others, favour incipient failures.     

The 1669 eruption at Mount Etna: chronology,petrology and geochemistry,with inferences on the magma sources and ascent mechanisms

 Analysis of the petrochemical characters of the 1669 Etnean lavas shows that they can be grouped into two sets: SET1 lavas were erupted from 11 to 20 March and are more primitive in composition than SET2, erupted later until the end of activity. Both sets may be interpreted as the result of crystallization under different conditions of two primary magmas which are compositionally slightly distinct and which fractionate different volumetric proportions of minerals. To explain why more mafic lavas (SET1) were erupted earlier than more acid ones (SET2), we argue that new deeper magma rose up into a reservoir where residing magma was fractionating. Density calculations demonstrate that new magma is less dense and may originate a plume, rapidly rising through the residing magma which is cooler and more volatile-depleted than the new magma. Calculations of uprise velocity assuming laminar flow are consistent with this hypothesis. Received: 20 November 1995 / Accepted: 2 August 1996