A data based mechanistic approach to nonlinear flood routing and adaptive flood level forecasting

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed flood inundation models more common. However, problems remain with the application of such models. There are still uncertainties associated with the identifiability of parameters; with the computational burden of calculating distributed estimates of predictive uncertainty; and with the adaptive use of such models for operational, real-time flood inundation forecasting. Moreover, the application of distributed models is complex, costly and requires high degrees of skill. This paper presents an alternative to distributed inundation models for real-time flood forecasting that provides fast and accurate, medium to short-term forecasts. The Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) methodology exploits a State Dependent Parameter (SDP) modelling approach to derive a nonlinear dependence between the water levels measured at gauging stations along the river. The transformation of water levels depends on the relative geometry of the channel cross-sections, without the need to apply rating curve transformations to the discharge. The relationship obtained is used to transform water levels as an input to a linear, on-line, real-time and adaptive stochastic DBM model. The approach provides an estimate of the prediction uncertainties, including allowing for heterescadasticity of the multi-step-ahead forecasting errors. The approach is illustrated using an 80 km reach of the River Severn, in the UK.     

Effect of Hydrocarbons and Decontaminating Substances on Bacterial Flora of Coastal Sediments

Abstract. Seventy six samples of coastal sediments collected in the Straits of Messina were studied in order to evaluate the effects of an oil spill and the consequent "clean-up" operations on heterotrophic acrobic bacteria.
In addition, in vitro tests were carried out to estimate the effects of five dispersants on the growth and oil degrading capacity of marine strains isolated from the same sediments.     

Comparative study of radiation-induced damage in magnesium aluminate spinel by means of IL,CL and RBS/C techniques

A comparative study of damage accumulation in magnesium aluminate spinel (MgAl₂O₄) has been conducted using ionoluminescence (IL), cathodoluminescence (CL) and Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry/channeling (RBS/C) techniques. MgAl₂O₄ single crystal and polycrystalline samples were irradiated with 320 keV Ar⁺ ions at fluencies ranging from 1 × 10¹² to 2 × 10¹⁶ cm^?2 in order to create various levels of radiation damage. RBS/C measurements provided quantitative data about damage concentration in the samples. These values were then compared to the luminescence measurements. The results obtained by IL and RBS/C methods demonstrate a two-step character of damage buildup process. The CL data analysis points to the three-step damage accumulation mechanism involving the first defect transformation at fluencies of about 10¹³ cm^?2 and second at about 10¹⁵ cm^?2. The rate of changes resulting from the formation of nonluminescent recombination centers is clearly nonlinear and cannot be described in terms of continuous accumulation of point defects. Both, IL and CL techniques, appear as new, complementary tools bringing new possibilities in the damage accumulation studies in single- and polycrystalline materials.     

Age and geotectonic setting of Late Neoproterozoic juvenile mafic gneisses and associated paragneisses from the Ribeira belt (SE Brazil) based on geochemistry and Sm–Nd data — Implications on Gondwana assembly

Mafic gneisses and associated paragneisses from the Cabo Frio Tectonic Domain in the southeastern part of the Ribeira Belt, along the coast of Rio de Janeiro State in southeast Brazil, were subjected to a geochemical and Sm–Nd isotope study. Four lithotypes are distinguished: aluminous paragneisses (mainly sillimanite–kyanite–garnet–biotite gneiss), calcsilicate lenses, quartzo–feldspathic metasedimentary gneisses and mafic–ultramafic lenses. The whole-rock major and trace, including rare earth element distributions in the mafic–ultramafic intercalations indicate that derivation from subalkaline basalt/gabbro of tholeiitic affinity with E-MORB signature from a non-subduction environment. These mafic rocks have positive ε_Nd(t) and T_DM of 1.1 Ga. The metasedimentary rocks have negative ε_Nd(t) and T_DM of 1.7 Ga. A Sm–Nd whole rock isochron of mafic rocks yielded an age of 604 ± 38 Ma for the crystallization. This matches with the age of some detrital zircon grains from the paragneisses. The depositional basin, named Buzios–Palmital, was active at least until 620 Ma (age of the youngest detrital zircon) and was subsequently deformed and metamorphosed at ca. 525 Ma (age of metamorphic zircons) during the Buzios Orogeny. It is interpreted as a back arc basin with relation to the 630 Ma magmatic arc of the Oriental Terrane in the Ribeira Belt to the NW. However, after 600 Ma, the Buzios–Palmital basin changed to an active margin setting because the arc collided with the continental margin and the subduction shifted to the back arc environment. By 610 Ma, most of the Brasiliano belts registered collisional events related to multiple convergent blocks. The stress fields and paleocontinent shapes would have allowed the occurrence of extensional areas with not only sedimentary deposition but also ocean floor spreading. Its remnants are preserved in this Brazilian coastal region as an ancient suture, reworked intensively during the Mesozoic rifting events. The reconnaissance of Late Neoproterozoic basins in the Brasiliano–Pan-African belts is of major importance to partially unravel the final amalgamation events of SW Gondwana. Considering that the Buzios–Palmital basin rock units are mostly covered by the marginal Atlantic basins, it is possible that other evidence could be preserved in the coastal regions of SW-Africa and SE-South America.     

530 Ma syntectonic syenites and granites in NW Namibia — Their relation with collision along the junction of the Damara and Kaoko belts

The Lower Ugab and Goantagab structural domains are located at the junction between the N–S trending Kaoko and the E–W trending Damara belts (NW Namibia), where Neoproterozoic metavolcano-sedimentary sequences were intruded by several syenitic/granitic plutons. We present here new U–Pb ages on zircon grains from the Voetspoor and Doros plutons. Together with petrological, geochemical and structural data we evaluate the timing of the deformation and relation to the geodynamics during the final stage of Gondwana amalgamation.The plutons are composed of three main rock types: hornblende quartz-syenite, syenodiorite and biotite granite. The two former are predominant and show genetic correlation such as magma mingling structures and similar geochemical signatures. The biotite granite occurs in the SW parts of the intrusions and clearly cuts the syenitic rocks. Although the plutons are mainly isotropic, the structures around them demonstrate that their intrusion occurred during a second deformation phase (D2) with a component of sinistral solid state rotation with respect to the wall rocks in response to D2 transpression. Four samples were dated using U–Pb SHRIMP methodology in single zircon grains. A hornblende monzodiorite from the Voetspoor pluton yielded an age of 534 ± 4.5 Ma. A hornblende monzonite from the Doros pluton produced an age of 528 ± 5 Ma. The biotite granite facies was sampled in the Doros intrusion and yielded an age of 530 ± 4.5 Ma. In addition, a granitic vein folded by D2 close to the northeastern contact of the Doros pluton with the encasing phyllites (Amis River Formation) was also dated, yielding an age of 533 ± 6 Ma. The data show that all granite–syenite from Doros and Voetspoor intrusions are contemporaneous and crystallized in the period between 539 and 522 Ma within the errors. D1–D2 deformational phases took place under greenschist facies (biotite zone) conditions and during D3 the metamorphic grade was slightly lower. We interpret that the plutons are coeval to peak metamorphism of the region (530–520 Ma) and that D2 and D3 sinistral transpressional phases are due to collision in the Damara Belt. The E–W compressional event and second metamorphic episode in the Kaoko Belt occurred between 580 and 560 Ma and are apparently unrelated to the thermo-tectonic evolution described here, although D1 might be partially related to this event. The sinistral transpressional D2 phase resulted probably from the position of the area considered at the junction between the belts, and not in the frontal Damara collision further to the east. This new interpretation is consistent with the Ar–Ar ages for the region (about 500 Ma), interpreted to reflect cooling of the orogen. The enrichment in LREE, K, Rb, Ba and Sr, and depletion in Nb of these basic to intermediate alkalic rocks could indicate that they partially derived from melting of a subcontinental lithospheric mantle that was affected by subduction and the granitic rock types represent lower crust contamination. We interpret that they could be related to heating in the mantle caused by asthenosphere influx in a zone of slab-breakoff during collision between Kalahari and Congo cratons.     

Fecal Sterols in Estuarine Sediments as Markers of Sewage Contamination in the Cubat?o Area, S?o Paulo, Brazil

Sterol biomarkers serve as an alternative method for detecting sewage pollution. Sterols were extracted from samples of surface sediment collected in Cubat?o (the Vila dos Pescadores and Vila Esperan?a communities) and quantified using GC–MS after Soxhlet extraction, cleanup, and derivatization. Fecal contamination was evaluated based on the concentration of coprostanol and the ratio of the selected sterols. The most abundant sterol was cholestanol, followed by coprostanol. The concentrations of coprostanol in surface sediments ranged from a minimum of 4.21?μg?g^?1 dry sediment (Vila dos Pescadores station) to a maximum of 8.32?μg?g^?1 dry sediment (Vila Esperan?a station). A coprostanol concentration of about 10?μg?g^?1 was found, indicating areas of high sewage contamination. Coprostanol levels at sewage stations were higher than in other Brazilian coastal areas, which may be attributed to the fraction of the population without sanitation services.     

Analysis of the effects of different storm events on shoreline dynamics of an artificially embayed beach

A five‐year dataset of Argus‐derived mean intertidal positions has been analysed to characterize the shoreface variability in a beach protected by a system of groynes and a parallel low crested structure (Lido di Dante Ravenna, Italy). For the period 2004–2009, 84 intertidal beach bathymetries and shorelines at the zero sea level were used as indicators to assess beach changes in between a number of selected surveys and to determine characteristic patterns of the beach response to storm events from different directions. Variations in the shoreline at the zero sea levels have been quantified and analysed in conjunction with nearshore wave conditions and provenance linked to storm events. These fall into two categories: (1) storm events occurring during Bora (north‐eastern) wind conditions and (2) storm events occurring during Scirocco (south‐eastern) wind conditions. The results show that, apart from main beach advances of the whole protected beach due to nourishments periodically carried out, a marked variability is observed among the four sub‐cells into which the shoreface behaviour has been separately analysed. In particular, a dependence of beach rotation in the ‘artificially embayed’ area on the substantially bi‐directional wave climate has been shown: Bora and Scirocco storm events produce shoreline rotation in counterclockwise and clockwise directions, respectively, due to the occurrence of longshore currents in the opposite direction in the nearshore. An attempt was made to correlate the shoreface dynamics for the main rotation events (14 selected ones) to the wave attack intensity (as the total energy flux due to storm events). A relationship seems to occur (for each storm category) between the shoreline displacements estimated for each sub‐cell and the total energy flux computed for inter‐survey periods, supporting the occurrence of a link between the observed morphological changes and the hydrodynamic forcing associated with storm events in the five‐year monitoring period. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of solute transport in rivers under different flow rates: A case study without transient storage

A methodology to derive solute transport models at any flow rate is presented. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the assessment of uncertainty of predictions that incorporate parameterisation based on flow rate. A simple treatment of uncertainty takes into account heteroscedastic modelling errors related to tracer experiments performed over a range of flow rates, as well as the uncertainty of the observed flow rates themselves. The proposed approach is illustrated using two models for the transport of a conservative solute: a physically based, deterministic, advection-dispersion model (ADE), and a stochastic, transfer function based, active mixing volume model (AMV). For both models the uncertainty of any parameter increases with increasing flow rate (reflecting the heteroscedastic treatment of modelling errors at different observed flow rates), but in contrast the uncertainty of travel time, computed from the predicted model parameters, was found to decrease with increasing flow rate.