Modelling of solute transport in rivers under different flow rates: A case study without transient storage

A methodology to derive solute transport models at any flow rate is presented. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in the assessment of uncertainty of predictions that incorporate parameterisation based on flow rate. A simple treatment of uncertainty takes into account heteroscedastic modelling errors related to tracer experiments performed over a range of flow rates, as well as the uncertainty of the observed flow rates themselves. The proposed approach is illustrated using two models for the transport of a conservative solute: a physically based, deterministic, advection-dispersion model (ADE), and a stochastic, transfer function based, active mixing volume model (AMV). For both models the uncertainty of any parameter increases with increasing flow rate (reflecting the heteroscedastic treatment of modelling errors at different observed flow rates), but in contrast the uncertainty of travel time, computed from the predicted model parameters, was found to decrease with increasing flow rate.     

A basal slip model for Lagrangian finite element simulations of 3D landslides

A Lagrangian numerical approach for the simulation of rapid landslide runouts is presented and discussed. The simulation approach is based on the so‐called Particle Finite Element Method. The moving soil mass is assumed to obey a rigid‐viscoplastic, non‐dilatant Drucker–Prager constitutive law, which is cast in the form of a regularized, pressure‐sensitive Bingham model. Unlike in classical formulations of computational fluid mechanics, where no‐slip boundary conditions are assumed, basal slip boundary conditions are introduced to account for the specific nature of the landslide‐basal surface interface. The basal slip conditions are formulated in the form of modified Navier boundary conditions, with a pressure‐sensitive threshold. A special mixed Eulerian–Lagrangian formulation is used for the elements on the basal interface to accommodate the new slip conditions into the Particle Finite Element Method framework. To avoid inconsistencies in the presence of complex shapes of the basal surface, the no‐flux condition through the basal surface is relaxed using a penalty approach. The proposed model is validated by simulating both laboratory tests and a real large‐scale problem, and the critical role of the basal slip is elucidated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gully erosion as a natural hazard: the educational role of geotourism

Gully erosion is one of the greatest natural hazards in the loess areas of E. (Eastern) Poland. At the same time, permanent gullies are a major tourist attraction and can provide a basis for the development of geotourism. The study objective was to assess the possibilities of using the loess gullies for educational purposes. Detailed studies were conducted within the municipality of Kazimierz Dolny, an area with an extremely high concentration of permanent gullies. The questionnaire survey of students and tourists (nearly 300 surveys were completed) showed that the respondents’ knowledge of geomorphology was limited, despite their familiarity with gullies. In most cases, they were unable to accurately identify the determinants of gully erosion, its negative effects and methods for preventing it. An assessment of the tourism and geotourism potential of the municipality made it possible to identify the sites (gullies) that can perform an educational function, with regard to gully erosion. The establishment of the Ma?opolska Vistula Gap Geopark, whose highlights will include numerous loess gullies, can pave the way for the development of geotourism.     

Probabilistic modelling of macroseismic attenuation and forecast of damage scenarios

According to the idea now widespread that macroseismic intensity should be expressed in probabilistic terms, a beta-binomial model has been proposed in the literature to estimate the probability of the intensity at site in the Bayesian framework and a clustering procedure has been adopted to define learning sets of macroseismic fields required to assign prior distributions of the model parameters. This article presents the results concerning the learning sets obtained by exploiting the large Italian macroseismic database DBM1I11 (Locati et al. in DBMI11, the 2011 version of the Italian Macroseismic Database, 2011. http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI11/) and discusses the problems related to their use in probabilistic modelling of the attenuation in seismic regions of the European countries partners of the UPStrat-MAFA project (2012), namely South Iceland, Portugal, SE Spain and Mt Etna volcano area (Italy). Anisotropy and the presence of offshore earthquakes are some of the problems faced. All the work has been carried out in the framework of the Task B of the project.     

Using entropy theory to improve the definition of homogeneous regions in the semi-arid region of Brazil

ABSTRACT

Although the semi-arid region of Brazil appears to be homogeneous due to drought conditions, there is a great deal of variability in climatic elements in the region, so that the definition of homogeneous regions will provide the deployment of measures appropriate for each locality. However, the limited information on climatic parameters in the region makes it difficult to define these regions. This problem can, however, be alleviated by the use of entropy theory. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the potential of the theory to identify hydrologically homogeneous regions for conditions of the semi-arid region of Brazil. Entropy-based Disorder Index (DI) data were computed, based on monthly precipitation and monthly water balance (precipitation – reference evapotranspiration) for 290 gauge stations. For defining homogeneous regions, cluster analysis was utilized, using the data on geographical information about rain gauges (latitude and longitude), annual precipitation, annual water balance, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis and DI. The identification of homogeneous regions in the Brazilian semi-arid region was only possible when the grouping of stations was performed, based on DI for precipitation and latitude. Results showed the definition of seven homogeneous regions in the semi-arid region of Brazil.