Measurements of Flows Over Isolated Valleys

Wind-tunnel measurements of the flow over an isolated valley both normal and at an angle (45°) to a simulated neutrally stable atmospheric boundary layer are presented. Attention is concentrated on the nature of the flow within the valley itself. The work formed part of a wider study that included detailed field measurements around an African desert valley and some limited comparisons with that work are included. A scale of about 1:1000 was used for the laboratory work, in which an appropriate combination of hot wire and particle image velocimetry was employed. For a valley normal to the upwind flow, it is shown that the upstream influence of the valley extends to a distance of at least one half of the axial valley width upstream of the leading edge, whereas differences in mean flow and turbulence could be identified well beyond two valley widths from the downwind edge. Non-normal wind angles lead to significant along-valley flows within the valley and, even at two valley heights above the valley ridge level, there remains a significant spanwise flow component. Downwind turbulence levels are somewhat lower in this case, but are still considerably higher than in the undisturbed boundary layer. At both flow angles, there are significant recirculation regions within the valleys, starting from mean separation just beyond the leading edge, but the strong spanwise flow in the 45° case reduces the axial extent of the separated zone. The flow is shown to be in some ways analogous to flow over an isolated hill. Our results usefully enhance the field data and could be used to improve modelling of saltation processes in the field.     

The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts

When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.     

Urban Atmospheric Chemistry During the PUMA Campaign 2: Radical Budgets for OH,HO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and RO<Subscript>2</Subscript>

A detailed photochemical box model was used to investigate the key reaction pathways between OH, HO₂ and RO₂ radicals during the summer and winter PUMA field campaigns in the urban city-centre of Birmingham in the UK. The model employed the most recent version of the Master Chemical Mechanism and was constrained to 15-minute average measurements of long-lived species determined in situ at the site. The results showed that in the summer, OH initiation was dominated by the reactions of ozone with alkenes, nitrous acid (HONO) photolysis and the reaction of excited oxygen atoms atoms with water. In the winter, ozone+alkene reactions were the primary initiation route, with a minor contribution from HONO photolysis. Photolysis of aldehydes was the main initiation route for HO₂, in both summer and winter. RO₂ initiation was dominated by the photolysis of aldehydes in the summer with a smaller contribution from ozone+alkenes, a situation that was reversed in the winter. At night, ozone+alkene reactions were the main radical source. Termination, under all conditions, primarily involved reactions with NO (OH) and NO₂ (OH and RCO₃). These results demonstrate the importance of ozone+alkene reactions in urban atmospheres, particularly when photolysis reactions were less important during winter and at nighttime. The implications for urban atmospheric chemistry are discussed.     

The seismic activity in Syria and Palestine during the middle of the 8th century; an amalgamation of historical earthquakes

Some historical earthquakes are distinct owing to the geographical distance of the places affected. It is less clear, however, when more than one earthquake is amalgamated into a single event and their combined effects are attributed to a major event. In order to avoid gross overestimation of the size of historical earthquakes the separation and identification of the constituent earthquakes is an important consideration. As an example we show how the tendency of early and modern writers to amalgamate or duplicate earthquakes in Syria and Palestine can lead to the creation of major earthquakes, with serious consequences for the assessment of the seismic hazard in the region.     

Intensity attenuation in the U.K.

Intensity attenuation is relatively little studied compared with the attenuation of peak ground acceleration, due to the fact that the PGA can be used for engineering design, while intensity cannot. However, intensity has other uses, including the estimation of effects (including damage) of future earthquakes, and hence, at least in a general way, the study of earthquake risk. Knowledge of intensity attenuation is also useful in calibrating hazard models against historical experience. In this study, the attenuation of intensity in the U.K. is thoroughly evaluated from a data set comprising 727 isoseismals from 326 British earthquakes, including both modern and historical events. Best results are obtained by restricting the data set to events contributing at least two isoseismals. The preferred equation is

Equations for the Estimation of Strong Ground Motions from Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Using Data from Europe and the Middle East: Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration and Spectral Acceleration

This article presents equations for the estimation of horizontal strong ground motions caused by shallow crustal earthquakes with magnitudes M_w 5 and distance to the surface projection of the fault less than 100km. These equations were derived by weighted regression analysis, used to remove observed magnitude-dependent variance, on a set of 595 strong-motion records recorded in Europe and the Middle East. Coefficients are included to model the effect of local site effects and faulting mechanism on the observed ground motions. The equations include coefficients to model the observed magnitude-dependent decay rate. The main findings of this study are that: short-period ground motions from small and moderate magnitude earthquakes decay faster than the commonly assumed 1/r, the average effect of differing faulting mechanisms is not large and corresponds to factors between 0.8 (normal and odd) and 1.3 (thrust) with respect to strike-slip motions and that the average long-period amplification caused by soft soil deposits is about 2.6 over those on rock sites. Disappointingly the standard deviations associated with the derived equations are not significantly lower than those found in previous studies.     

Non-Axisymmetric Oscillations of Thin Prominence Fibrils

We study non-axisymmetric oscillations of thin prominence fibrils. A fibril is modeled by a straight thin magnetic tube with the ends frozen in dense plasmas. The density inside and outside the tube varies only along the tube and it is discontinuous at the tube boundary. Making a viable assumption that the tube radius is much smaller than its length, we show that the squares of the frequencies of non-axisymmetric tube oscillations are given by the eigenvalues of the Sturm–Liouville problem for a second-order ordinary differential equation on a finite interval with the zero boundary conditions. For an equilibrium density that is constant outside the tube and piecewise constant inside we derived a simple dispersion equation determining the frequencies of non-axisymmetric oscillations. We carry out a parametric study of this equation both analytically and numerically, restricting our analysis to the first even mode and the first odd mode. In particular, we obtained a criterion that allows to find out if each of these modes is a normal or leaky mode.     

Impact of copper smelting on lakes in the southern Ural Mountains,Russia, inferred from chironomids

Karabash (52°2 N, 60°10 E) is a copper smelting town in the southern Ural Mountains of Russia. The town is affected by sulphur dioxide emissions and deposition of metal-rich particulates from the smelter, acid drainage from old mine workings, and leachates from disused waste dumps and tailings dams. The close proximity of houses to these sources of pollution is of concern to human health and has devastated terrestrial vegetation in the environs. The environmental impact of the smelter on lakes in the area has been assessed using chironomids. Short sediment cores were taken from 16 lakes within a 50 km radius of the smelter and the composition of the chironomid fauna from the bottom of each core, representing conditions prior to the commissioning of the smelter in 1910, was compared with the present chironomid fauna in the surface sediments. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that changes in the chironomid fauna of most lakes were driven by trophic change, independent of the industrial activity. Lakes and ponds adjacent to the smelter and waste dumps, which directly receive contaminated waters were devoid of macro- and mesofauna and flora, but there is no evidence that other lakes have been severely impacted by smelter emissions. Local geology ensures that the lakes are well-buffered to the effects of acid deposition which will limit the bioavailability of metals in the water column and sediment.     

Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: the role of the remote ocean response

In this modelling study, the teleconnections of ENSO are studied using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), HadAM3. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) remote from the tropical Pacific but teleconnected with ENSO is investigated. Composite cycles of El Niño and La Niña SSTs are created and imposed on HadAM3. These SSTs are imposed in different areas, with climatological SSTs elsewhere, in order to find the influences of SSTs in different regions. It is found that most of the reproducible response to ENSO is forced directly from the tropical Pacific before the peak of the event. However, during the peak and decay of ENSO, remote SSTs become increasingly influential throughout the tropics (at the 98% significance level). This could lead to extended ENSO-related predictability due to the memory of the remote oceans. The Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent SSTs are found to be particularly influential. Indian Ocean SSTAs dampen the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and force the atmosphere above the tropical Atlantic. More generally, when a tropical SSTA is imposed, atmospheric anomalies are forced locally with anomalies of the opposite sign to the west. Some of the reproducible response to ENSO in the tropical Atlantic is forced, not directly from the tropical Pacific but from the Indian ocean, which in turn is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, delayed SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic damp the local response and force the atmosphere above the tropical Pacific in the opposite manner.     

Geometry and growth of sill complexes: insights using 3D seismic from the North Rockall Trough

Doleritic sill complexes, which are an important component of volcanic continental margins, can be imaged using 3D seismic reflection data. This allows unprecedented access to the complete 3D geometry of the bodies and an opportunity to test classic sill emplacement models. The doleritic sills associated with basaltic volcanism in the North Rockall Trough occur in two forms. Radially symmetrical sill complexes consist of a saucer-like inner sill at the base with an arcuate inclined sheet connecting it to a gently inclined, commonly ragged, outer rim. Bilaterally symmetrical sill complexes are sourced by magma diverted from a magma conduit feeding an overlying volcano. With an elongate, concave upwards, trough-like geometry bilaterally symmetrical sills climb away from the magma source from which they originate. Both sill complex types can appear as isolated bodies but commonly occur in close proximity and consequently merge, producing hybrid sill complexes. Radial sill complexes consist of a series of radiating primary flow units. With dimensions up to 3 km, each primary flow unit rises from the inner saucer and is fed by primary magma tube. Primary flow units contain secondary flow units with dimensions up to 2 km, each being fed by a secondary magma tube branching from the primary magma tube. Secondary flow units in turn are composed of 100-m scale tertiary flow units. A similar branching hierarchy of flow units can also be seen in bilaterally symmetrical sill complexes, with their internal architecture resembling an enlarged version of a primary flow unit from a radial sill complex. This branching flow pattern, as well as the interaction between flow units of varying orders, provides new insights into the origin of the structures commonly seen within sill complexes and the hybrid sill bodies produced by their merger. The data demonstrate that each radially symmetrical sill complex is independently fed from a source located beneath the centre of the inner saucer, grows by climbing from the centre outwards and that peripheral dyking from the upper surface is a common feature. These features suggest a laccolith emplacement style involving peripheral fracturing and dyking during inner saucer growth and thickening. The branching hierarchy of flow units within bilaterally symmetrical sill complexes is broadly similar to that of primary flow units within a radially symmetrical sill complex, suggesting that the general features of the laccolith emplacement model also apply.Editorial responsibility: J. Stix