Towards Improved Remedial Outcomes in Categorical Aquifers with an Iterative Ensemble Smoother

Categorical parameter distributions consisting of geologic facies with distinct properties, for example, high-permeability channels embedded in a low-permeability matrix, are common at contaminated sites. At these sites, low-permeability facies store solute mass, acting as secondary sources to higher-permeability facies, sustaining concentrations for decades while increasing risk and cleanup costs. Parameter estimation is difficult in such systems because the discontinuities in the parameter space hinder the inverse problem. This paper presents a novel approach based on Traveling Pilot Points (TRIPS) and an iterative ensemble smoother (IES) to solve the categorical inverse problem. Groundwater flow and solute transport in a hypothetical aquifer with a categorical parameter distribution are simulated using MODFLOW 6. Heads and concentrations are recorded at multiple monitoring locations. IES is used to generate posterior ensembles assuming a TRIPS prior and an approximate multi-Gaussian prior. The ensembles are used to predict solute concentrations and mass into the future. The evaluation also includes an assessment of how the number of measurements and the choice of the geological prior determine the characteristics of the posterior ensemble and the resulting predictions. The results indicate that IES was able to efficiently sample the posterior distribution and showed that even with an approximate geological prior, a high degree of parameterization and history matching could lead to parameter ensembles that can be useful for making certain types of predictions (heads, concentrations). However, the approximate geological prior was insufficient for predicting mass. The analysis demonstrates how decision-makers can quantify uncertainty and make informed decisions with an ensemble-based approach.     

Energetic Charged Particles Above Thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.     

Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

Experimental pressure solution compaction of synthetic halite/calcite aggregates

Experimental observations are reported of weakening of sediment-like aggregates by addition of hard particles. Sieved mixtures of calcite and halite grains are experimentally compacted in drained pressure cells in the presence of a saturated aqueous solution. The individual halite grains deform easily by pressure solution creep whereas calcite grains act as hard objects and resist compaction. The fastest rate of compaction of the mixed aggregate is not obtained for a 100% halite aggregate but for a content of halite grains between 45% and 75%. We propose that this unusual compaction behavior reflects the competition between two mechanisms at the grain scale: intergranular pressure solution at grain contacts and grain boundary healing between halite grains that prevent further compaction.     

Stress sensitivity of stylolite morphology

Stylolites are rough surfaces that form by localized stress-induced dissolution. Using a set of limestone rock samples collected at different depths from a vertical section in Cirque de Navacelles (France), we study the influence of the lithostatic stress on the stylolites morphology on the basis of a recent morphogenesis model. We measured the roughness of a series of bedding-parallel stylolites and show that their morphology exhibits a scaling invariance with two self-affine scaling regimes separated by a crossover-length (L) at the millimeter scale consistent with previous studies. The importance of the present contribution is to estimate the stylolite formation stress σ from the sample position in the stratigraphic series and compare it to the crossover-length L using the expected relationship: L ～ σ ^?2. We obtained a successful prediction of the crossover behavior and reasonable absolute stress magnitude estimates using relevant parameters: depth of stylolite formation between 300 to 600 m with corresponding normal stress in the range of 10–18 MPa. Accordingly, the stylolite morphology contains a signature of the stress field during formation and we thus suggest that stylolites could be used as paleo-stress gauges of deformation processes in the upper crust.     

Expression of the Early Toarcian negative carbon-isotope excursion in separated carbonate microfractions (Jurassic,Paris Basin)

The causes of the pronounced negative excursion in carbon-isotope values that was recorded during the Early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE) are still under debate, particularly with regard to the local versus global pattern of the excursion, and the extent to which recorded signals are under a diagenetic control. In this study we employ a novel microseparation technique in order to investigate the isotopic and mineralogical characteristics of different size fractions of the carbonate content from a Toarcian section recovered from the Sancerre–Couy borehole, southern Paris Basin. Beyond the recognition of a ? 6‰ δ¹³C excursion in the bulk carbonate content, our data also demonstrate that biogenic particles (such as coccoliths) and inorganic grains precipitated as early diagenetic phases (including dolomite) both record the excursion with the same magnitude. Although several black shales occur through the Paris Basin Toarcian section, it is only that associated with the onset of the OAE that coincides with a large negative carbon-isotope excursion. Taken together these observations indicate that during this event, the entire water column was characterized by homogeneous carbon-isotope values; such a pattern is incompatible with the idea that the negative excursion was generated simply through the upwelling of bottom waters enriched in re-mineralized organic carbon (cf. “the Küspert model”), since this would have required a strong vertical gradient in the water column. Additionally, the Paris Basin data show that the decrease in carbonate δ¹³C values during the OAE occurred in several discrete steps (each of some ? 2‰), as has previously been found for organic carbon substrates in other European sections. The stepped nature of the isotopic profile, which is part of a stratigraphic signature previously ascribed to Milankovitch forcing, is compatible with regular pulsed input of light carbon into the whole atmosphere–ocean system from a climatically sensitive source such as gas hydrate, or from thermal methanogenesis of organic-rich sediments in the Karoo–Ferrar large igneous province. Contrasts in the amplitude of the negative carbon-isotope excursion on a regional scale remain an important unexplained aspect of the Toarcian record.     

New Methods to Estimate 2D Water Level Distributions of Dynamic Rivers

River restoration measures are becoming increasingly popular and are leading to dynamic river bed morphologies that in turn result in complex water level distributions in a river. Disconnected river branches, nonlinear longitudinal water level profiles and morphologically induced lateral water level gradients can evolve rapidly. The modeling of such river‐groundwater systems is of high practical relevance in order to assess the impact of restoration measures on the exchange flux between a river and groundwater or on the residence times between a river and a pumping well. However, the model input includes a proper definition of the river boundary condition, which requires a detailed spatial and temporal river water level distribution. In this study, we present two new methods to estimate river water level distributions that are based directly on measured data. Comparing generated time series of water levels with those obtained by a hydraulic model as a reference, the new methods proved to offer an accurate and faster alternative with a simpler implementation.     

Preliminary data on chemical changes in the Aral Sea during low-level periods from the last 9000 years

The withdrawal of the Aral Sea tributaries (Amu and Syr Daria) for cultures has led to significant falls of its level and an important increase in its salinity. During the Holocene, a succession of low and high water inputs occurred. Silty deposits correspond to the high levels and carbonates to the low levels. This study makes a distinction between the Syr Daria and the Amu Daria water inputs during low-level periods by using mineralogical and chemical compositions of the carbonates deposits. Waters from the Syr Daria are more sulphatic and have a low iron content in comparison with that of the Amu Daria. The Syr Daria was the major tributary around 7500, 4956 and 970 yr?BP, whereas around 6200 and 3610 yr?BP, inflow also from the Amu Daria is observed. To cite this article: L. Le Callonnec et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).