云南鲁甸6.5级地震灾害特点浅析

通过对2014年8月3日云南鲁甸6.5级地震震害开展实地调查,对灾区破坏情况进行总体介绍,并就各烈度区特征和建筑物震害、地震地质灾害、工程结构震害进行分析,初步得出本次地震的一些震害特点.一是灾区人口密度大,人员死亡较集中.人员死亡主要集中在Ⅷ和Ⅸ度区.二是地震振动强,灾区破坏严重.本次地震震源深度12km,极震区烈度高达Ⅸ度,震源破裂在11s内集中释放.三是抗震能力弱,房屋破坏严重.灾区属国家级贫困区,农村民居抗震能力弱,且多数民房坐落在河谷陡坡上,边坡效应加重房屋震害,重灾区砖木和土木房屋成片损毁、倒塌.四是灾区条件恶劣,救灾难度大.震区活动断裂密集发育、地质破碎疏松、地形崎岖不平,又恰值雨季,诱发极其严重次生地质灾害,导致人员伤亡,造成灾区大面积交通、通信、电力中断,救援物资与救援力量无法及时发挥作用.     

基于CMIP5模式的中国气候变化敏感性预估与分析

以CMIP5提供的26个全球气候系统模式的温度和降水数据为基础,采用区域气候变化指数(Regional Climate Change Index,RCCI)分析中国的不同区域对21世纪气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明,三种排放情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5)下,21世纪全期,气候变化最敏感的区域分布在西藏地区,其次为我国西北地区以及东北地区,气候变化敏感性最低的区域分布在我国内蒙古中东部、华北地区以及长江中下游一带,且高排放情景对应更高的气候变化敏感性。对RCCI指数贡献因子分析结果表明,对中国气候变化敏感性贡献的大小依次为Δσ_TΔσ_pΔRRWAF。冬夏两季温度变化的大值区与RCCI指数的大致区分布一致,RCCI大小的分布很大程度上由温度变化的敏感性决定。而夏季降水变化的大值区主要出现在西藏地区、华南地区和东北地区,冬季降水变化的大值区则主要出现在黄河以南长江以北的中原地区以及东北地区。     

Environmental anomalies in the northeastern East China Sea during the last 3 000 years: implications for El Niño activity in the Holocene

To reconstruct the productivity changes for the last 10 500 a in the northeastern East China Sea (ECS), biogenic compounds (such as carbonate, organic carbon and opal), marine micropaleontological fossils (planktonic foraminifera, benthic foraminifera, radiolarian and silicoflagellate) and the compositional characters of benthic foraminifera fauna analyses were carried out on a sediment core DOC082 obtained from the western slope of Okinawa Trough (29°13.93′N, 128°08.53′E; 1 128 m water depth). The long-term changes of biogenic and micropaleontological proxies display some similarities through the last 10 500 a, which show three different phases: lower values are recorded during the early and middle Holocene (before about 4 000 a BP), followed by an abrupt and remarkable increase at about 4 000 a BP, the late Holocene (after about 3 000 a BP) is characterized by continuously high values. The multi-proxy data of paleoproductivity and percents of benthic foraminifera genera (Uvigerina and Bulimina) show that during the early and middle Holocene (10 500–4 000 a BP) productivity was relatively low with a sudden and distinct increase at about 4 000 a BP, and the late Holocene (3 400–0 a BP) is marked by significantly higher productivity. Also, the radiolarian-based sea surface temperature (SST) records reveal a distinct decline in SST in the late Holocene after 3 200 a BP, very different from the early and middle Holocene. For the last 3 000 a, the enhanced biological productivity and distinctly lower SST indicate a major change of oceanographic conditions in the northeastern ECS. These marine environmental anomalies are consistent with other paleoclimatic records for the late Holocene in the Chinese continent and its surrounding regions. After analyzing the mechanisms of modern productivity and SST changes in the northeastern ECS, and based on the climatic anomalies in the Chinese continent and variations in the Kuroshio Current during modern El Niño periods, we suggest that the anomalous environmental conditions in the northeastern ECS may imply intensified El Niño activity during the late Holocene.     

Co–rich Mn crusts from the Magellan Seamount cluster: the long journey through time

The Magellan seamounts began forming as large submarine shield volcanoes south of the equator during the Cretaceous. These volcanoes formed as a cluster on the small Pacific plate in a period when tectonic stress was absent. Thermal subsidence of the seafloor led to sinking of these volcanoes and the formation of guyots as the seamounts crossed the equatorial South Pacific (10–0°S) sequentially and ocean surface temperatures became too high for calcareous organisms to survive. Guyot formation was completed between about 59 and 45 Ma and the guyots became phosphatized at about 39–34 and 27–21 Ma. Ferromanganese crusts began formation as proto-crusts on the seamounts and guyots of the Magellan Seamount cluster towards the end of the Cretaceous up to 55 Ma after the formation of the seamounts themselves. The chemical composition of these crusts evolved over time in a series of steps in response to changes in global climate and ocean circulation. The great thickness of these crusts (up to 15–20 cm) reflects their very long period of growth. The high Co contents of the outer parts of the crusts are a consequence of the increasing deep circulation of the ocean and the resulting deepening of the oxygen minimum zone with time. Growth of the Co-rich Mn crusts in the Magellan Seamount cluster can be considered to be the culmination of a long journey through time.     

Distribution and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediments from Zhanjiang Bay and Leizhou Bay, South China

The concentrations and spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons have been investigated in two adjacent bays of Zhanjiang and Leizhou, China. The total concentrations of the 16 USEPA priority PAHs were ranged from 41.96 to 933.90ng/g dry weight with an average concentration of 315.98ng/g and ranged from 21.72 to 319.61ng/g with an average concentration of 103.91ng/g in Zhanjiang and Leizhou Bays, respectively. The spatial distribution of PAHs was site-specific and appeared to be somewhat positively correlated with TOC and negatively correlated with sediment grain size in the two bays. The values of Phe/Ant, BaA/228 and InP/276 were higher than 10, less than 0.2, and from 0.2 to 0.5, respectively, indicating that the sources of PAHs in the two bays were mainly from petroleum and its combustion, which predominantly originated from those ships and boats coming and going in the two bays.     

新疆阿尔泰阿勒泰组沉积时代及其形成环境

阿勒泰组变质碎屑岩局部夹变质火山岩广泛分布于南阿尔泰的冲乎尔、克兰和麦兹盆地,其沉积时代和构造环境对于研究阿尔泰造山带的演化过程有重要意义。阿勒泰组碎屑锆石的年代学研究表明,碎唐锆石年龄主要集中在417-383 Ma和507-445 Ma,并出现少量元古宙和太古宙碎屑锆石。少数锆石年龄为380-354 Ma,与阿勒泰组凝灰岩和流纹岩年龄一致(376~354 Ma)。综合研究认为阿勒泰组时代为中-晚泥盆世(382-354 Ma)。阿勒泰组长石石英砂岩分选性和磨圆度较差,为近源沉积,物源岩石主要来自泥盆纪火山岩,其次是晚寒武一早奥陶世火山岩和奥陶纪花岗岩。长石石英砂岩样品具有高的La/Sc(3.9-6.3),La/Y(1.0~1.6),较低的Sc/Cr(0.2~0.4)比值,类似于大陆岛弧相关环境碎屑沉积物,结合Th-Co-Zr/10和Th-Sc-Zr/10以及La-Th-Sc判别图,认为阿勒泰组形成于与岛弧相关的构造环境(弧后盆地),为研究阿尔泰造山带泥盆纪构造演化提供了重要证据。     

中国地区云对地气系统太阳短波吸收辐射强迫的气候研究

本文利用地球辐射平衡试验（ＥＲＢＥ）和国际卫星云气候计划（ＩＳＣＣＰ）提供的总云量、行星反射率资料,计算并分析了我国年、月平均云对地气系统太阳短波吸收辐射的强迫及其敏感性系数,揭示了它们之间的关系,最后绘制了地气系统短波辐射云强迫的全国分布图。结果表明：我国地气系统短波辐射云强迫及其敏感性系数都与总云量有较好的非线性相关,呈幂指数形式,且季节变化明显。短波辐射云强迫的地理分布与总量配合较好。     

西安地震台极远震震相记录特征

以西安地震台记录的2001-2018年13次6级以上极远震为研究对象,依据AK135走时表进行震相分析,总结归纳典型极远震震相记录特征,以期提高震相分析水平和测震分析工作质量,为其他地震台站极远震分析工作提供借鉴。     

支持向量机与卡尔曼滤波集合的西太平洋副热带高压数值预报误差修正

基于T106数值预报产品资料,提出了支持向量机和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来进行夏季西太平洋副热带高压数值预报的误差修正与预报优化.首先采用支持向量机方法建立了西太平洋副热带高压面积指数的误差修正模型.基于支持向量机预报优化模型尽管有比较好的拟合精度和预报效果,但与实际副热带高压指数尚有一定的差异.究其原因,除预报对象(副热带高压)本身比较复杂、模型优化因子不够充分以及数值预报误差自身的随机性以外,优化模型的输入、输出基本上是一个静态映射结构,因此前一时刻的预测误差难以得到有效的反馈、调整和修正.为考虑前一时刻预报误差的反馈信息,动态跟踪副高的变化趋势,随后引入卡尔曼滤波方法建立支持向量机-卡尔曼滤波模型,对支持向量机模型的输出结果作进一步的调整和优化.试验结果表明,该方法模型的预报优化效果优于T106数值预报产品以及单纯的神经网络修正模型和卡尔曼滤波修正模型的优化效果,能够较为客观、有效地修正西太平洋副热带高压指数的数值预报误差,改进和优化西太平洋副热带高压的数值预报效果.该方法为副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了一种新的思路,表现出较好的应用前景.     

川东北地区普光2井飞仙关组储层沥青地球化学特征及成因分析

根据储层中沥青的产状及类型、族组成、饱和烃色谱、生物标志化合物以及储层沥青反射率等,对普光2井飞仙关组储层固体沥青的地球化学特征及成因进行了详尽的剖析。研究结果表明,普光2井飞仙关组储层沥青为古油藏原油经裂解成气之后的残留物,属热演化的焦沥青。储层沥青的正构烷烃分布较为完整,碳数在C14~C30范围,没有受到明显的生物降解作用。Pr/Ph、Pr/nC17和Ph/nC18比值都小于1.0;OEP值1.25～1.43,CPI值0.98～1.19,无奇偶优势或偶奇优势;规则甾烷系列中C27化合物含量占优势,C27-C29规则甾烷呈不对称的“V”字型分布,甾烷异构化程度较低,明显低于异构化平衡值,认为是由于高、过成熟阶段S构型比R构型裂解速率更快的结果。飞一段、飞二段孕甾烷、升孕甾烷含量明显较飞三段高,可能是有机质生源或沉积环境性质上的不同所致。萜类化合物以五环萜烷为主,三环萜烷较为发育,其以C23三环萜烷为基峰,伽马蜡烷的含量较高。这些特征表明普光2井储层沥青主要来源于低等水生生物,有机质的热演化程度较高,主要处于高-过成熟阶段,有机母质形成于沉积水体咸度较高的海相沉积环境中。储层沥青中高含量25 降藿烷并非生物降解作用所致,而主要与源岩的热演化程度较高有关。