东昆仑中段万宝沟群玄武岩的形成时代和构造意义

万宝沟群位于柴达木地块南缘、东昆仑造山带中段,主要由溢流相玄武岩、火山和陆源碎屑岩以及灰岩组成。万宝沟玄武岩可以分为两类:高Ti碱性玄武岩和低Ti拉斑玄武岩,前者具有高的Ti/Y(502~660)、Nb/Y(0.8~1.6)值和Ti O2含量(2.76%~4.97%),与OIB类似;后者具有相对低的Ti/Y(383~439)、Nb/Y(0.3~0.4)值和Ti O2含量(1.80%~2.49%),与E-MORB类似。SIMS锆石年代学结果表明万宝沟玄武岩形成于新元古代(762±2 Ma)。野外地层和地球化学特征显示万宝沟玄武岩可能形成于大陆裂谷或者初始洋盆环境,代表Rodinia超大陆裂解的峰期阶段。     

Swelling model study of expansive soil at K-0 and triaxial stress stateEI北大核心CSCD

A series of swelling tests is performed on a typical Nanyang expansive soil with medium swelling capacity compacted at various initial densities and water contents. The swelling tests are separately conducted using the conventional oedometer to confine the lateral swelling of the soil specimens, and using the GDS triaxial apparatus to allow the free volumetric swelling. The multiple nonlinear mathematical method is adopted to obtain the lateral swelling model (i.e. K-0 model), which fully considers the coupled effect of initial degree of compaction, moisture content and overburden pressure on the swelling strain. Also, an empirical model for the relationship between spherical stress and volumetric strain is proposed by triaxial swelling test. Based on the K-0 swelling model, a formula is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the swell potential, and also a theoretical calculation method is derived to determine the processing layer thickness of expansive soil slope. Based on the assumption that volumetric swelling strain only changes with spherical stress and is not affected by the deviatoric stress, the correlations between the K-0 model and triaxial model are analyzed, and a method to calculate the volumetric swelling strain by only employing the K-0 model is given. Experimental results show that the proposed K-0 model with multifactor coupling is reasonable to predict the swelling potential of compacted expansive soil. It is found that the key factor to link the K-0 model and triaxial swelling model is assuming an average static lateral pressure coefficient. The average static lateral pressure coefficient tends to decreases with increasing overburden pressure by inversion method. This tendency of average static lateral pressure coefficient is believed to rely on the fact that lateral swelling pressure decreases with the increase of overburden pressure.     

The strong El Niño of 2015/16 and its dominant impacts on global and China's climate

The oceanic and atmospheric conditions and the related climate impacts of the 2015/16 ENSO cycle were analyzed, based on the latest global climate observational data, especially that of China. The results show that this strong El Niño event fully established in spring 2015 and has been rapidly developing into one of the three strongest El Niño episodes in recorded history. Meanwhile, it is also expected to be the longest event recorded, attributable to the stable maintenance of the abnormally warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since spring 2014. Owing to the impacts of this strong event, along with climate warming background, the global surface temperature and the surface air temperature over Chinese mainland reached record highs in 2015. Disastrous weather in various places worldwide have occurred in association with this severe El Niño episode, and summer precipitation has reduced significantly in North China, especially over the bend of the Yellow River, central Inner Mongolia, and the coastal areas surrounding Bohai Bay. Serious drought has occurred in some of the above areas. The El Niño episode reached its peak strength during November-December 2015, when a lower-troposphere anomalous anticyclonic circulation prevailed over the Philippines, bringing about abnormal southerlies and substantially increased precipitation in southeastern China. At the same time, a negative phase of the Eurasia-Pacific teleconnection pattern dominated over the mid-high latitudes, which suppressed northerly winds in North China. These two factors together resulted in high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and frequent haze weather in this region. Currently, this strong El Niño is weakening very rapidly, but its impact on climate will continue in the coming months in some regions, especially in China.     

国家气候中心MJO监测预测业务产品研发及应用

热带大气低频振荡 (MJO) 和北半球夏季季节内振荡 (BSISO) 对全球范围天气气候事件有重要影响,是次季节-季节 (S2S) 预报最主要的可预报性来源之一。国家气候中心 (BCC) 基于我国完全自主的T639全球分析场数据、风云三号气象卫星射出长波辐射 (OLR) 资料以及BCC第2代大气环流模式系统的实时预报,发展了MJO实时监测预测一体化业务技术,建立了ISV/MJO监测预测业务系统 (IMPRESS1.0),已投入实时业务运行,在全国气象业务系统得到应用。该文着重介绍该系统提供的MJO和BSISO指数监测预测数据和图形产品,并描述了这些业务产品在2015年对MJO典型个例的实时监测预测应用情况。监测分析和预报检验表明,基于我国自主资料的监测结果能够较为准确地表征MJO和BSISO指数的振荡和演变过程,该系统对MJO和BSISO事件分别至少具备16 d和10 d左右的预报技巧。因此,基于IMPRESS1.0的MJO/BSISO监测预测一体化业务产品可为制作延伸期预报提供重要的参考依据。     

Calculation and accuracy evaluation of TGD from IFB for BDS

With the development of new global navigation satellite system applications, the demand of high accurate positioning navigation timing (PNT) service becomes urgent. For precise PNT, the timing group delay (TGD) is regarded as an important parameter in the satellite navigation message. Instead of using the absolute receiver hardware delay, a method based on receiver inter-frequency bias (IFB, i.e., differential receiver hardware delay between different frequencies) calibration is presented to deal with the rank deficiency of a calculation matrix and to reduce jumps in TGD solutions in BDS. The double-differenced pseudorange obtained from a pair of zero baseline receivers is used to evaluate the IFB calibration accuracy. The estimated precision of TGD is evaluated and compared with GPS TGD provided by IGS. In order to ensure the quality of assessment, a method based on the difference of dual-frequency ionospheric delay is proposed to compare the accuracy of the estimated TGD and broadcast TGD. Finally, the effect of TGD on the user equivalent range error is analyzed. The analysis result shows that for BDS IGSO satellites, the precision of TGD1, which is the differential hardware delay between B1 (1561.098 MHz) and B3 (1268.52 MHz) frequencies, is better than 0.5 ns, and for GEO and MEO satellites the TGD1 is better than 1 and 2 ns, respectively. The precision of TGD2 of all satellites, which is the differential hardware delay between B2 (1207.14 MHz) and B3 frequencies, is better than 0.5 ns. The accuracy analysis result reveals that the proposed TGD estimation method can provide better results when compared with the broadcast data.     

A Spatial Conditioned Latin Hypercube Sampling Method for Mapping Using Ancillary Data

For obtaining maps of good precision by the spatial inference method, the distribution of sampling sites in geographical and feature space is very important. For a regional variable with trends, the predicting error comes from trend estimation, variogram estimation and spatial interpolation. Based on the cLHS (conditioned Latin hypercube Sampling) method, a sampling method called scLHS (spatial cLHS) considering all these three aspects with the help of ancillary data is proposed in this article. Its advantage lies in simultaneously improving trend estimation, variogram estimation and spatial interpolation. MODIS data and simulated data were used as sampling fields to draw sample sets using scLHS, cLHS, cLHS with x and y coordinates as covariates, simple random and spatial even sampling methods, and the distribution and prediction errors of sample sets from different methods were evaluated. The results showed that scLHS performed well in balancing spreading in geographic and feature space, and can generate points pairs with small distances, and the sample sets drawn by scLHS produced smaller mapping error, especially when there were trends in the target variable.     

基于BP模型和Ward法的北京市平谷区乡村地域功能评价与分区

构建乡村地域功能评价指标体系,借助BP神经网络模型揭示平谷区“生产-生活-生态”功能分异特征;运用Ward法划分功能区,服务于平谷区乡村转型发展和功能区布局。结果表明：① 在多项功能综合作用下,平谷区基本形成了“平原地区生产功能较强、镇中心及周边村域生活功能明显、山地区以生态功能为主”的功能分布格局。② 基于评价结果和空间属性,平谷区划分为西部平原生产区、东部山地生态生产区、中部平原城市生活区、中部近郊平原生活区、东部丘陵生态生活区和北部山地生态区。其中,西部平原生产区、中部平原城市生活区、北部山地生态区是平谷三生空间功能发展的优势区域,分布相对集中。按照“强功能重优化、中等功能重提升、弱功能重改善”的原则提升乡村地域功能,促进地区均衡发展。     

中国县域交通优势度与农村发展的空间协同性及影响机制解析

利用综合评价、耦合协调度、空间滞后模型（SLR）等模型,对2000~2010年的中国分县农村综合发展水平及2010年的分县道路交通优势度进行综合测度,解析其两者的空间耦合协同特征,并探索道路交通对农村发展的影响机制。结果表明：① 2000~2010年,中国分县的农村综合发展水平的东、中、西差异格局未突破,农村综合发展水平整体提升了33.20%。东部地区的农村发展进入优化整合提升阶段,中、西部地区在政策、产业转移、城镇化、工业化等驱动下农村综合水平提升较快,乡村多维空间历经转型重构。② 2010年,县域道路交通优势度呈现出典型的“点-轴”的地域结构特征,存在东、中、西部和交通枢纽中心地与外围地区之间的地域差异,其与农村发展水平耦合协同性整体较差,处于轻度失调以下状态占县（区）总数的88.25%,西部地区协调度普遍低于0.40,交通发展与农村发展协同性较好地域集中于东部沿海地域和道路交通优势极核及轴带的县（区）。 ③ 道路交通等级、密度、可介入性等影响农村综合发展。道路密度对农村发展正向影响较大,国道、省道、县道沿途邻近可进入性强,对农村综合发展有积极促进作用;高速公路和铁路有景观生态学“廓道”性质,空间上起连通作用,结构的不可穿越性,封闭性影响可介入性,高速公路的出入口和火车站空间布局对农村发展影响显得尤为重要。④ 地级市交通中心地对农村发展带动影响明显,大城市的强聚集能力易促成周边县区的农村发展“灯下黑”的地域结构特征。道路交通设施建设的等级、阶段对农村发展的传导效应及区域交通建设的超前或滞后的科学判断核心理论,将是人文经济地理学及乡村地理学亟待关注的重要领域。     

Relative contributions of boundary-layer meteorological factors to the explosive growth of PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> during the red-alert heavy pollution episodes in Beijing in December 2016

Based on observations of urban mass concentration of fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5), ground meteorological data, vertical measurements of winds, temperature, and relative humidity (RH), and ECMWF reanalysis data, the major changes in the vertical structures of meteorological factors in the boundary layer (BL) during the heavy aerosol pollution episodes (HPEs) that occurred in winter 2016 in the urban Beijing area were analyzed. The HPEs are divided into two stages: the transport of pollutants under prevailing southerly winds, known as the transport stage (TS), and the PM_2.5 explosive growth and pollution accumulation period characterized by a temperature inversion with low winds and high RH in the lower BL, known as the cumulative stage (CS). During the TS, a surface high lies south of Beijing, and pollutants are transported northwards. During the CS, a stable BL forms and is characterized by weak winds, temperature inversion, and moisture accumulation. Stable atmospheric stratification featured with light/calm winds and accumulated moisture (RH > 80%) below 250 m at the beginning of the CS is closely associated with the inversion, which is strengthened by the considerable decrease in near-surface air temperature due to the interaction between aerosols and radiation after the aerosol pollution occurs. A significant increase in the PLAM (Parameter Linking Aerosol Pollution and Meteorological Elements) index is found, which is linearly related to PM mass change. During the first 10 h of the CS, the more stable BL contributes approximately 84% of the explosive growth of PM_2.5 mass. Additional accumulated near-surface moisture caused by the ground temperature decrease, weak turbulent diffusion, low BL height, and inhibited vertical mixing of water vapor is conducive to the secondary aerosol formation through chemical reactions, including liquid phase and heterogeneous reactions, which further increases the PM_2.5 concentration levels. The contribution of these reaction mechanisms to the explosive growth of PM_2.5 mass during the early CS and subsequent pollution accumulation requires further investigation.