Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed.     

Biological and Temporal Variations of Trace Element Concentrations in the Moss Species Scleropodium purum (Hedw.) Limpr.

Over a period of one year, the moss Scleropodium purum was sampled every two weeks in a French rural area to determine the levels of Li, Na, Al, Si, P, Ca, V, Mn, Fe, Zn, Ba, Hg, and Pb. The element distribution in the moss shoot was studied throughout the year. An apical bioconcentration was discovered for Na, P, Ca, Mn, and Zn, whereas higher levels were found in the basal fraction for Li, Al, Si, V, Fe, Ba, Hg, and Pb. A significant variation of element concentrations was observed during the sampling period. In the apical part Li, Al, Si, V, Fe, Ba, and Hg show maximum levels in the summer and minimum in the autumn. The same pattern was found with Ca and Mn in the whole plant, whereas Na showed opposite fluctuations.     

Transportation of water,particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic matter between a salt marsh and the Ems-Dollard estuary,The Netherlands

Transport processes were studied in a gully between a salt marsh and an estuary. After storm tides, ebb currents in the gully reached high values. It is concluded that particulate matter (both organic and inorganic) are imported into the marsh. Coarse organic debris is exported during storm tides, but this amount is low when compared with the primary production on the marsh. Exports are shown for dissolved organic carbon, ammonia, phosphate and silica, while nitrate and possibly nitrite are imported. Organic matter derived from in situ production and net import is buried and partly mineralized in the marsh.