Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU

Background

In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes.

Results

The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m³/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m³/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m³/year.

Conclusions

The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.

     

Automated mapping of rock slope geometry,kinematics and stability with RSS-GIS

A GIS-implemented, deterministic approach for the automated spatial evaluation of geometrical and kinematical properties of rock slope terrains is presented. Based on spatially distributed directional information on planar geological fabrics and DEM-derived topographic attribute data, the internal geometry of rock slopes can be characterized on a grid cell basis. For such computations, different approaches for the analysis and regionalization of available structural directional information applicable in specific tectonic settings are demonstrated and implemented in a GIS environment. Simple kinematical testing procedures based on feasibility criteria can be conducted on a pixel basis to determine which failure mechanisms are likely to occur at particular terrain locations. In combination with hydraulic and strength data on geological discontinuities, scenario-based rock slope stability evaluations can be performed. For conceptual investigations on rock slope failure processes, a GIS-based specification tool for a 2-D distinct element code (UDEC) was designed to operate with the GIS-encoded spatially distributed rock slope data. The concepts of the proposed methodology for rock slope hazard assessments are demonstrated at three different test sites in Germany.     

The determination of potential difference by the joint application of measured and synthetical gravity data: a case study in Hungary

In an elementary approach every geometrical height difference between the staff points of a levelling line should have a corresponding average g value for the determination of potential difference in the Earth’s gravity field. In practice this condition requires as many gravity data as the number of staff points if linear variation of g is assumed between them. Because of the expensive fieldwork, the necessary data should be supplied from different sources. This study proposes an alternative solution, which is proved at a test bed located in the Mecsek Mountains, Southwest Hungary, where a detailed gravity survey, as dense as the staff point density (~1 point/34 m), is available along a 4.3-km-long levelling line. In the first part of the paper the effect of point density of gravity data on the accuracy of potential difference is investigated. The average g value is simply derived from two neighbouring g measurements along the levelling line, which are incrementally decimated in the consecutive turns of processing. The results show that the error of the potential difference between the endpoints of the line exceeds 0.1 mm in terms of length unit if the sampling distance is greater than 2 km. Thereafter, a suitable method for the densification of the decimated g measurements is provided. It is based on forward gravity modelling utilising a high-resolution digital terrain model, the normal gravity and the complete Bouguer anomalies. The test shows that the error is only in the order of 10⁻³mm even if the sampling distance of g measurements is 4 km. As a component of the error sources of levelling, the ambiguity of the levelled height difference which is the Euclidean distance between the inclined equipotential surfaces is also investigated. Although its effect accumulated along the test line is almost zero, it reaches 0.15 mm in a 1-km-long intermediate section of the line.     

Phase center modeling for LEO GPS receiver antennas and its impact on precise orbit determination

Most satellites in a low-Earth orbit (LEO) with demanding requirements on precise orbit determination (POD) are equipped with on-board receivers to collect the observations from Global Navigation Satellite systems (GNSS), such as the Global Positioning System (GPS). Limiting factors for LEO POD are nowadays mainly encountered with the modeling of the carrier phase observations, where a precise knowledge of the phase center location of the GNSS antennas is a prerequisite for high-precision orbit analyses. Since 5 November 2006 (GPS week 1400), absolute instead of relative values for the phase center location of GNSS receiver and transmitter antennas are adopted in the processing standards of the International GNSS Service (IGS). The absolute phase center modeling is based on robot calibrations for a number of terrestrial receiver antennas, whereas compatible antenna models were subsequently derived for the remaining terrestrial receiver antennas by conversion (from relative corrections), and for the GNSS transmitter antennas by estimation. However, consistent receiver antenna models for space missions such as GRACE and TerraSAR-X, which are equipped with non-geodetic receiver antennas, are only available since a short time from robot calibrations. We use GPS data of the aforementioned LEOs of the year 2007 together with the absolute antenna modeling to assess the presently achieved accuracy from state-of-the-art reduced-dynamic LEO POD strategies for absolute and relative navigation. Near-field multipath and cross-talk with active GPS occultation antennas turn out to be important and significant sources for systematic carrier phase measurement errors that are encountered in the actual spacecraft environments. We assess different methodologies for the in-flight determination of empirical phase pattern corrections for LEO receiver antennas and discuss their impact on POD. By means of independent K-band measurements, we show that zero-difference GRACE orbits can be significantly improved from about 10 to 6 mm K-band standard deviation when taking empirical phase corrections into account, and assess the impact of the corrections on precise baseline estimates and further applications such as gravity field recovery from kinematic LEO positions.     

On the topographic bias in geoid determination by the external gravity field

The topographic bias is defined as the error/bias committed by continuing the external gravity field inside the topographic masses by a harmonic function. We study the topographic bias given by a digital terrain model defined by a spherical template, and we show that the topographic bias is given only by the potential of an inner-zone cap, and it equals the bias of the Bouguer shell, independent of the size of the cap. Then we study the effect on the real Earth by decomposing its topography into a template, and we show also in this case that the topographic bias is that of the Bouguer shell, independent of the shape of the terrain. Finally, we show that the topographic potential of the terrain at the geoid can be determined to any precision by a Taylor expansion outside the Earth’s surface. The last statement is demonstrated by a Taylor expansion to fourth order.     

Using gravity and topography-implied anomalies to assess data requirements for precise geoid computation

Many regions around the world require improved gravimetric data bases to support very accurate geoid modeling for the modernization of height systems using GPS. We present a simple yet effective method to assess gravity data requirements, particularly the necessary resolution, for a desired precision in geoid computation. The approach is based on simulating high-resolution gravimetry using a topography-correlated model that is adjusted to be consistent with an existing network of gravity data. Analysis of these adjusted, simulated data through Stokes’s integral indicates where existing gravity data must be supplemented by new surveys in order to achieve an acceptable level of omission error in the geoid undulation. The simulated model can equally be used to analyze commission error, as well as model error and data inconsistencies to a limited extent. The proposed method is applied to South Korea and shows clearly where existing gravity data are too scarce for precise geoid computation.     

A hierarchical model for estimating methane emission from wetlands using MODIS data and ARIMA modeling

A three-step hierarchical Semi Automated Empirical Methane Emission Model (SEMEM) has been used to estimate methane emission from wetlands and waterlogged areas in India using Moderate Resolution Imagine Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor data onboard Terra satellite. Wetland Surface Temperature (WST), methane emission fluxes and wetland extent have been incorporated as parameters in order to model the methane emission. Analysis of monthly MODIS data covering the whole of India from November 2004 to April 2006 was carried out and monthly methane emissions have been estimated. Interpolation techniques were adopted to fill the data gaps due to cloudy conditions during the monsoon period. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been fitted to estimate the emitted methane for the months of May 2006 to August 2006 using SPSS software.     

An approach to aid INS using time-differenced GPS carrier phase (TDCP) measurements

This paper presents a simple and effective approach that incorporates single-frequency, L1 time-differenced GPS carrier phase (TDCP) measurements without the need of ambiguity resolution techniques and the complexity to accommodate the delayed-state terms. Static trial results are included to illustrate the stochastic characteristics and effectiveness of the TDCP measurements in controlling position error growth. The formulation of the TDCP observation model is also described in a 17-state tightly-coupled GPS/INS iterative, extended Kalman filter (IEKF) approach. Preliminary land vehicle trial results are also presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the TDCP which provides sub-meter positional accuracies when operating for more than 10 min.     

Urban cadastral mapping using very high resolution remote sensing data

With growing urban expanses, one of the pre-requisites for effective governance is Urban Information Systems (UIS) with content down to individual properties (and individuals). The basic input i.e., a map, in UIS should show individual property boundaries showing the plan outline of all structures existing within, at a scale of 1:1000 and larger with sub-metre to centimeters planimetric and geometric accuracy. With very high resolution remote sensing data of the order of 1m available in hand, it is possible to prepare maps with high resolution spatial content. The present exercise demonstrates a method of preparing a geometrically and planimetrically accurate urban cadastral map on very large scale for a small area of about 5 sq km. IKONOS merged data with 1m resolution is used for the purpose. Mapping was done in conjunction with on-site measurements and sketches. Guides are used to maintain shape symmetry and accuracy of buildings and other features. Working out cost of mapping per unit area is another objective in the present exercise. For want of fully or semi-automatic methods of information extraction from very high resolution remote sensing data, it is imperative that mapping should be carried out in conjunction with some on-site measurements wherever necessary.