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91.
Stephan R. Sain Reinhard Furrer 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(6):821-829
In climate science, collections of climate model output, usually referred to as ensembles, are commonly used devices to study uncertainty in climate model experiments. The ensemble members may reflect variation in initial conditions, different physics implementations, or even entirely different climate models. However, there is a need to deliver a unified product based on the ensemble members that reflects the information contained in whole of the ensemble. We propose a technique for creating linear combinations of ensemble members where the weights are constructed from estimates of variation and correlation both within and between ensemble members. At the heart of this approach is a Bayesian hierarchical model that allows for estimation of the correlation between ensemble members as well as the study of the impact of uncertainty in the parameter estimates of the hierarchical model on the weights. The approach is demonstrated on an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) output. 相似文献
92.
Stefan Wyhlidal Peter Tropper Werner F. Thöny Reinhard Kaindl 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,97(1-2):61-74
The Sauwald area is located at the southern rim of the Bohemian Massif and contains migmatites and high-grade metapelitic and granitic gneisses. These rocks were metamorphosed during the post-collisional high-T/low-P stage of the Variscan metamorphic event (~330 Ma). Metapelitic samples were taken from two localities near Kössldorf and Pyret in Upper Austria and the investigated samples contain the mineral assemblage garnet + cordierite + spinel + sillimanite + K-feldspar + quartz + biotite + muscovite + magnetite + graphite. An important aspect of this study is the evaluation of previously published P-T estimates for these high-grade metapelites (Knop et al. 1995; Tropper et al. 2006) involving Ti-in-biotite, Na-in-cordierite thermometry and the micro-Raman thermometer based upon the degree of crystallization of carbonaceous material. In the two samples studied three texturally and chemically different biotites are distinguished. Biotite inclusions in garnet have the highest Ti contents of 5–6 wt.% TiO2. Matrix biotites contain 2–4 wt.% TiO2 and biotites from late-stage muscovite-biotite symplectites contain <2 wt.% TiO2. This corresponds to temperatures of 730–760°C (stage 1), 600–700°C (stage 2), and 550–610°C (stage 3). Since the Ti-in-biotite thermometer strongly depends on X Mg of biotite, which is susceptible to changes during retrogression the calculated temperatures for stage 1 are interpreted as minimum temperatures of the peak metamorphic stage. The Na contents of the studied cordierites vary from 0.1 to 0.2 wt.% Na2O. Application of the Na-in-cordierite thermometer yields temperatures in the range of 770–900°C; they are strongly dependent on the bulk Na2O content of the samples. The micro-Raman geothermometer of graphite was applied to carbonaceous material, which occurs as inclusions in garnet and cordierite. It yielded a maximum temperature >650°C, i.e. above the calibration limit of this method. This study shows that the obtained temperature estimates agree well with the P-T estimates based on phase equilibrium thermobarometry (Knop et al. 1995; Tropper et al. 2006), thus illustrating the validity of these thermometers. Nevertheless in order to more precisely constrain the metamorphic evolution of these high-grade rocks, better constrained experimental calibrations of, for instance the Na-in-cordierite thermometer, are clearly needed. 相似文献
93.
94.
Data on the seasonal variability of the quality and quantity of zooplankton are presented for the shallow eutrophic Darss-Zingst estuary. These data are the result of a monitoring programm from 1969–1995. Copepods and rotifers were the main components of the biomass. They showed a pattern of seasonal fluctuation which remained unchanged during the whole period of investigation. Copeods were dominant in spring and autumn and had their maximum in summer. Considerable biomass peaks of cladocerans were observed only in some years in connection with low salinities and high temperatures. A peak of meroplanktic larvae of polychates was observed in late autumn since 1989. Copepods were inversily correlated with the pH-value. An inverse correlation was also found between rotifers and water temperature. 相似文献
95.
In the region of the Schirmacheroase (71 °S, 12°E) various geodetic and glaciological research activities have been carried out in the last decade. Several times three geodetic-glaciological traverses were undertaken to study ice velocity, accumulation and ablation, and ice surface height changes. Repeated ground surveys show a significant decrease in surface heights by about 15 cm/y for a large blue-ice area. This paper presents the first interferometrically derived ice velocity field of the inland ice close to the Schirmacheroase. The interferometric analysis of the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is performed in combination with ground-based information. Since only ERS-1&2 tandem mission image couples are available for this region a digital elevation model (DEM) is used to remove the effect of topography. Ice velocities up to 100 m/y are proved interferometrically for this part of the inland ice. 相似文献
96.
Roman?Golowin Maxim?PortnyaginEmail author Kaj?Hoernle Alexander?Sobolev Dimitry?Kuzmin Reinhard?Werner 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(11-12):104
High-Mg, low-Ti volcanic rocks from the Manihiki Plateau in the Western Pacific share many geochemical characteristics with subduction-related boninites such as high-Ca boninites from the Troodos ophiolite on Cyprus, which are believed to originate by hydrous re-melting of previously depleted mantle. In this paper we compare the Manihiki rocks and Troodos boninites using a new dataset on the major and trace element composition of whole rocks and glasses from these locations, and new high-precision, electron microprobe analyses of olivine and Cr-spinel in these rocks. Our results show that both low-Ti Manihiki rocks and Troodos boninites could originate by re-melting of a previously depleted lherzolite mantle source (20–25% of total melting with 8–10% melting during the first stage), as indicated by strong depletion of magmas in more to less incompatible elements (Sm/Yb < 0.8, Zr/Y < 2, Ti/V < 12) and high-Cr-spinel compositions (Cr# > 0.5). In comparison with Troodos boninites, the low-Ti Manihiki magmas had distinctively lower H2O contents (< 0.2 vs. > 2 wt% in boninites), ~ 100 °C higher liquidus temperatures at a given olivine Fo-number, lower fO2 (ΔQFM < + 0.2 vs. ΔQFM > + 0.2) and originated from deeper and hotter mantle (1.4–1.7 GPa, ~ 1440 °C vs. 0.8–1.0 GPa, ~ 1300 °C for Troodos boninites). The data provide new evidence that re-melting of residual upper mantle is not only restricted to subduction zones, where it occurs under hydrous conditions, but can also take place due to interaction of previously depleted upper mantle with mantle plumes from the deep and hotter Earth interior. 相似文献
97.
98.
99.
Propagation of flare protons in the solar atmosphere 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The velocity dispersion for a large number of solar proton events is analyzed in the energy regime of 10–60 MeV. It is found for all events that the time from the flare to particle maximum t
m is well represented by a sum of two components. The first component which is energy independent describes the propagation in the solar atmosphere, the second component describes the propagation in the interplanetary medium giving a velocity dispersion v × t
m = const. The additional study of time intensity profiles, onset times, and multispaceprobe observations reveals that the propagation in the solar atmosphere consists of three processes: (1) A rapid transport process in the initial ( 1 h) phase after the event fills up a fast propagation region (FPR), which may extend up to 60° from the flare site and which is tentatively identified with a large unipolar magnetic cell as seen on H synoptic charts, (2) a large-scale drift process which is energy independent with drift velocities v
D in the range 1° v
D 4°h-1, and simultaneously (3) a diffusion process which yields the general broadening of the intensity time profiles for eastern hemisphere events, which is, however, of less importance than previously assumed. 相似文献
100.
Summary The local magnitude ML at the seismological station Pruhonice (PRU) was converted into surface wave magnitude MS using the formula MS=–3.2+1.45 ML and the seismic wave energy was estimated using the relation log E (Joule)=1.2+2.0 ML. It was proposed to apply the same conversion formulae at seismological stations Kaperské Hory (KHC) and Berggiesshübel (BRG) where the calibrating functions for local magnitudes were determined for the same set of earthquakes with common reference magnitudes as in the case of the PRU station. 相似文献