Gas production from a cold, stratigraphically-bounded gas hydrate deposit at the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: Implications of uncertainties

As part of an effort to identify suitable targets for a planned long-term field test, we investigate by means of numerical simulation the gas production potential from unit D, a stratigraphically bounded (Class 3) permafrost-associated hydrate occurrence penetrated in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well on North Slope, Alaska. This shallow, low-pressure deposit has high porosities (? = 0.4), high intrinsic permeabilities (k = 10⁻¹² m²) and high hydrate saturations (S_H = 0.65). It has a low temperature (T = 2.3-2.6 °C) because of its proximity to the overlying permafrost. The simulation results indicate that vertical wells operating at a constant bottomhole pressure would produce at very low rates for a very long period. Horizontal wells increase gas production by almost two orders of magnitude, but production remains low. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the initial deposit temperature is by the far the most important factor determining production performance (and the most effective criterion for target selection) because it controls the sensible heat available to fuel dissociation. Thus, a 1 °C increase in temperature is sufficient to increase the production rate by a factor of almost 8. Production also increases with a decreasing hydrate saturation (because of a larger effective permeability for a given k), and is favored (to a lesser extent) by anisotropy.     

Fast time spectra of gamma-ray bursts

Fast time spectral measurements of a gamma-ray burst acquired with a satellite-borne cooled germanium spectrometer during the 18 December, 1972 event indicate significant spectral variations during the course of the event. These data are compared with the results of other exerimenters providing additional evidence for spectral variations on short time scales. The fast time spectra are also compared with spectral measurements obtained by others with accumulation periods longer than typical time widths of the structure in the intensity profile and particularly with spectra averaged over the entire duration of the burst event.Paper presented at the COSPAR Symposium on Fast Transients in X- and Gamma-Rays, held at Varna, Bulgaria, 29–31 May, 1975.     

Accessing Flexibility: A Historical Institutional Analysis of Water Use for Oil and Gas Development in Colorado

US Mountain West Water access and allocation institutions have a history of adapting policy and practice to increase flexibility for diverse water uses. We examine how flexible access has developed over time and space by operationalizing the historical institutional (HI) theoretical and methodological framework. We trace historical water access for oil and gas (OG) development in Colorado, working from contemporary water right data to examine historical critical events, policies, and political contexts. OG water use has iteratively shaped water governance institutions in the top OG producing regions of Colorado, Weld, and Garfield Counties. The analysis suggests that to more accurately capture institutional change and continuity in resource allocation systems, an analysis of informal institutions is an essential theoretical contribution to the HI framework. While increased flexibility makes multiple uses easier, policies favor the most economically lucrative beneficial uses and generate issues of transparency, an important consideration for the public’s resource. Future practices of flexibility are contingent on market structures and institutional access mechanisms shaped during previous government policy processes, illuminating the value of the HI framework to inform future water policy.     

Changes in magma composition at Arenal volcano,Costa Rica, 1968–1985: Real-time monitoring of open-system differentiation

Arenal volcano in Costa Rica has been erupting nearly continuously, but at a diminishing rate, since 1968, producing approximately 0.35 km³ of lavas and tephras that have shown consistent variations in chemistry and mineralogy. From the beginning of the eruption in July 1968 to early 1970 (stage 1, vol.=0.12 km³) tephras and lavas became richer in Ca, Mg, Ni, Cr, Fe, Ti, V, and Sc and poorer in Al₂O₃ and SiO₂. Concentrations of incompatible trace elements (including Sr) decreased by 5%–20%. Phenocryst contents increased 20–50 vol%. During stage 2 (1970–1973, vol. = 0.13 km³) concentrations of compatible trace elements rose, and concentrations of incompatible trace elements either remained constant or also rose. Al₂O₃ contents decreased by 1 wt%. Phenocryst content increased slightly, principally due to increased orthopyroxene. During stage 3 (mid-1974 to the present, vol.= 0.10 km³) concentrations of SiO₂ increased by 1 wt%, compatible trace elements decreased slightly, and incompatible trace element concentrations increased by 5% to 10%. Although crystals increased in size during stage 3, their overall abundance stayed roughly constant.Our modeling suggests that early stage-1 magmas were produced by boundary layer fractionation under high-p H₂O conditions of an unseen basaltic andesitic magma that intruded into the Arenal system after approximately 500 B.P. Changes in composition during stage 2 resulted from mixing of this more mafic original magma with new magma that had a similar SiO₂ content, but higher compatible and incompatible element concentrations. The changes during stage 3 resulted from continued influx of the same magma plus crystal removal.We conclude that the eruption proceeded in the following way. Before 1968 zoned stage-1 magma resided in the deep crust below Arenal. A new magma intruded into this chamber in July 1968 causing ejection of the stage-1 magmas. The intruding magma mixed with mafic portions of the original chamber producing the mixed lavas of stage 2. Continued mixing plus crystal fractionation along the chamber and conduit walls produced stage-3 lavas. The time scales of crustal level magmatic processes at Arenal range 10⁰–10³ years, which are 3–6 orders of magnitude shorter than those of larger, more silicic systems.     

Temporal variation of isotope and rare earth element abundances in volcanic rocks from Guam: implications for the evolution of the Mariana Arc

Volcanic rocks exposed on Guam were erupted during the Late Middle Eocene (Facpi Fm.), Late Eocene-Oligocene (Alutom Fm.) and Miocene (Umatac Fm.). Four magma series are recognized: the boninite series (44 m.y.b.p.), the tholeiite and calc-alkaline series, which were erupted along with boninite series lavas at 32–36 m.y.b.p. and high-K lavas of the Umatac Fm. (14 m.y.b.p.). Isotope and and rare earth element (REE) characteristics of the four magma series are distinct. Boninite series lavas have U-shaped REE patterns, relatively low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51294–0.51298), and high ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (19.0–19.2). Tholeiite series lavas are LREE (light REE) depleted, and have high ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51304–0.51306) and low ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (18.4–18.5). Calc-alkaline series lavas have Sr, Nd and Pb isotope ratios similar to tholeiite series lavas, but flat to U-shaped REE patterns. Umatac Fm. lavas are strongly LREE-enriched, and have higher ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr (0.70375–0.70380) and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb relative to ²⁰⁶Pb/ ²⁰⁴Pb than Facpi and Alutom Fm. lavas. Boninite and tholeiite series magmas, erupted in the position of the Palau-Kyushu Ridge, were probably derived from distinct mantle sources having OIB and N-MORB-like isotopic characteristics, together with fluids derived from subducted Pacific plate basalt. Calc-alkaline series lavas were most likely derived from the tholeiite series by extensive crystal fractionation, wallrock contamination and magma mixing. Lavas of the Umatac Fm., erupted in the position of the West Mariana Ridge, may include up to 2–3% subducted sediment, similar to some active Mariana arc lavas.     

Subduction initiation and ophiolite crust: new insights from IODP drilling

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 352 recovered a high-fidelity record of volcanism related to subduction initiation in the Bonin fore-arc. Two sites (U1440 and U1441) located in deep water nearer to the trench recovered basalts and related rocks; two sites (U1439 and U1442) located in shallower water further from the trench recovered boninites and related rocks. Drilling in both areas ended in dolerites inferred to be sheeted intrusive rocks. The basalts apparently erupted immediately after subduction initiation and have compositions similar to those of the most depleted basalts generated by rapid sea-floor spreading at mid-ocean ridges, with little or no slab input. Subsequent melting to generate boninites involved more depleted mantle and hotter and deeper subducted components as subduction progressed and volcanism migrated away from the trench. This volcanic sequence is akin to that recorded by many ophiolites, supporting a direct link between subduction initiation, fore-arc spreading, and ophiolite genesis.     

Toward petascale earthquake simulations

Earthquakes are among the most complex terrestrial phenomena, and modeling of earthquake dynamics is one of the most challenging computational problems in science. Computational capabilities have advanced to a state where we can perform wavefield simulations for realistic three-dimensional earth models, and gain more insights into the earthquakes that threaten California and many areas of the world. The Southern California Earthquake Center initiated a major earthquake research program called TeraShake to perform physics-based numerical simulations of earthquake processes for large geographical regions, at high resolution, and for high frequencies. For a large scale simulation such as TeraShake, optimization problems tend to emerge that are not significant in smaller scale simulations. This involves both large parallel computation and also massive data management and visualization coordination. In this paper, we describe how we performed single-processor optimization of the TeraShake AWM application, optimization of the I/O handling, and optimization of initialization. We also look at the challenges presented by run-time data archive management and visualization. The improvements made to the TeraShake AWM code enabled execution on the 40k IBM Blue Gene processors and have created a community code that can be used by seismologists to perform petascale earthquake simulations.