Greening in the circumpolar high-latitude may amplify warming in the growing season

We present a study that suggests greening in the circumpolar high-latitude regions amplifies surface warming in the growing season (May–September) under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The investigation used a series of climate simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3—which incorporates a coupled, dynamic global vegetation model—with and without vegetation feedback, under both present and doubled CO₂ concentrations. Results indicate that climate warming and associated changes promote circumpolar greening with northward expansion and enhanced greenness of both the Arctic tundra and boreal forest regions. This leads to additional surface warming in the high-latitudes in the growing season, primarily through more absorption of incoming solar radiation. The resulting surface and tropospheric warming in the high-latitude and Arctic regions weakens prevailing tropospheric westerlies over 45–70N, leading to the formation of anticyclonic pressure anomalies in the Arctic regions. These pressure anomalies resemble the anomalous circulation pattern during the negative phase of winter Arctic Oscillation. It is suggested that these circulation anomalies reinforce the high-latitude and Arctic warming in the growing season.     

Modelling Near-Surface Low Winds over Land under Stable Conditions: Sensitivity Tests,Flux-Gradient Relationships,and Stability Parameters

Low or weak wind-speed conditions, roughly defined as the periods when the mean wind speed at 10 m above the ground is 2 ms⁻¹ or less, are of considerable practical interest. However, they are not readily amenable to treatment within prognostic meteorological models and, consequently, difficult to predict, especially when the ambient stability is strong. In this paper, we apply an E − ε prognostic meteorological model to simulate near-surface meteorology and, focusing on low wind speeds, compare the predictions with measurements from two independent datasets. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the possible reasons for the relatively inferior model performance for low winds when the atmosphere is stably stratified. A comprehensive data analysis is carried out to study low wind stable conditions, concentrating on the validity of various forms of flux–gradient relationships for momentum and heat within the framework of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, which models employ for calculating surface fluxes. The observed behaviour of various stability parameters, such as the Richardson number, is investigated. The results point to inadequacies of the current flux–gradient relationships, especially regarding momentum, under strongly stable conditions as being a dominant reason for the poor low wind predictions. The modelling issues identified are not just restricted to the present model, but are general in nature. The use of an alternative stability function for momentum under strongly stable conditions is explored. It results in improved model performance for low winds; however, further research is needed to better understand strongly stable flows in the lower atmosphere and to develop methods that can translate that understanding to operational meteorological modelling.     

Monte Ollasteddu, a new gold discovery in the Variscan basement of Sardinia (Italy): first isotopic (40Ar−39Ar, Pb) and fluid inclusion data

The Monte Ollasteddu deposit represents a major gold discovery in the Variscan basement of southeastern Sardinia. Gold occurs in late-Variscan extensional brittle structures hosted by meta-volcanic, and subordinately meta-sedimentary, rocks. The vein mineralogy is dominated by quartz; arsenopyrite is the main sulphide. Reconnaissance ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating gives ages around ∼260 Ma on K-feldspar from mineralized veins, whereas metamorphic white mica from the host rock gives ages clustering at ∼307 Ma. The best age estimate for biotite from a nearby leucogranite body is 286.3±2.2 Ma. The Pb isotope signature of ore and gangue minerals is entirely consistent with literature data for Variscan deposits of Sardinia, and for European Variscan gold deposits. Fluid inclusion data point to the presence of both CO₂-bearing and CO₂-free fluids, with homogenization temperatures ranging from 220 to 415°C, with low-to-moderate salinities (0.4–6.2 wt% NaCl equivalent). Monte Ollasteddu shows several features similar to European Variscan gold deposits; however, the age of mineralization might post-date granitoid intrusion by as much as 30 Ma, being instead coeval with very late calc-alkaline basaltic dykes, marking the transition to a post-orogenic, pre-Tethyan geodynamic setting. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at     

Weather Forecasts are for Wimps: Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

Short-term climate forecasting offers the promise of improved hydrologic management strategies. However, water resource managers in the United States have proven reluctant to incorporate them in decision making. While managers usually cite poor reliability of the forecasts as the reason for this, they are seldom able to demonstrate knowledge of the actual performance of forecasts or to consistently articulate the level of reliability that they would require. Analysis of three case studies in California, the Pacific Northwest, and metro Washington DC identifies institutional reasons that appear to lie behind managers reluctance to use the forecasts. These include traditional reliance on large built infrastructure, organizational conservatism and complexity, mismatch of temporal and spatial scales of forecasts to management needs, political disincentives to innovation, and regulatory constraints. The paper concludes that wider acceptance of the forecasts will depend on their being incorporated in existing organizational routines and industrial codes and practices, as well as changes in management incentives to innovation. Finer spatial resolution of forecasts and the regional integration of multi-agency functions would also enhance their usability.The title of this article is taken from an advertising slogan for the Oldsmobile Bravura SUV.     

First experiences with a solid ZnSe grism for near infrared astronomy

We present engineering data and initial astronomical observations with the solid ZnSe grisms mounted in the MPIA MAGIC infrared camera.     

LNAPL Recovery Endpoints: Lessons Learnt Through Modeling,Experiments, and Field Trials

It is important to estimate what light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) recovery can be practicably achieved from subsurface environments. Over the last decade, research to address this included a broad field program, laboratory measurements and experimentation, and modeling approaches. Here, we consolidate key findings from the research in the context of current literature and understanding, with a focus on a well-validated, multiphase multicomponent modeling approach to achieve estimates of reasonable endpoints for LNAPL recovery. Simple analytical models can provide approximate saturation distributions and estimates of LNAPL recoverability via transmissivity approximation, but are insufficient to predict LNAPL saturation- and composition-based recovery endpoints for various recovery technologies. This is because they cannot account for multiphase, multicomponent fate and transport and key processes such as hysteresis. Recent advances to improve estimates of the fraction of recoverable LNAPL and its transmissivity are summarized. These advances include further development and application of a well-validated model to characterize active LNAPL recovery endpoints. We present key factors that affect the determination of LNAPL recovery endpoints, and outline how recovery endpoints are affected by natural source zone depletion (NSZD—currently gaining acceptance as a LNAPL remediation option). Major factors include geo-physical characteristics of the formation, magnitude of an LNAPL release and partitioning properties of the key LNAPL constituents of concern. Based on the capabilities of the validated model, the paper also provides a basis to optimize LNAPL recovery efforts.     

Extinguishing Petroleum Vapor Intrusion and Methane Risks for Slab-on-ground Buildings: A Simple Guide

The occurrence of aerobic biodegradation in the vadose zone between a subsurface source and a building foundation can all-but eliminate the risks from methane and petroleum vapor intrusion (PVI). Understanding oxygen availability and the factors that affect it (e.g., building sizes and their distribution) are therefore critical. Uncovered ground surfaces allow oxygen access to the subsurface to actively biodegrade hydrocarbons (inclusive of methane). Buildings can reduce the net flux of oxygen into the subsurface and so reduce degradation rates. Here we determine when PVI and methane risk is negligible and/or extinguished; defined by when oxygen is present across the entire sub-slab region of existing or planned slab-on-ground buildings. We consider all building slab sizes, all depths to vapor sources and the effect of spacings between buildings on the availability of oxygen in the subsurface. The latter becomes critical where buildings are in close proximity or when increased building density is planned. Conservative assumptions enable simple, rapid and confident screening should sites and building designs comply to model assumptions. We do not model the aboveground “building” processes (e.g., air exchange), and assume the slab-on-ground seals the ground surface so that biodegradation of hydrocarbons is minimized under the built structure (i.e., the assessment remains conservative). Two graphs represent the entirety of the outcomes that allow simple screening of hydrocarbon vapors based only on the depth to the source of vapors below ground, the concentration of vapors within the source, the width of the slab-on-ground building, and the gap between buildings; all independent of soil type. Rectangular, square, and circular buildings are considered. Comparison with field sites and example applications are provided, along with a simple 8-step screening guide set in the context of existing guidance on PVI assessment.     

Integrated pressure–temperature–time constraints for the Tso Morari dome (Northwest India): implications for the burial and exhumation path of UHP units in the western Himalaya

Northward subduction of the leading edge of the Indian continental margin to depths greater than 100 km during the early Eocene resulted in high‐pressure (HP) quartz‐eclogite to ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) coesite–eclogite metamorphism at Tso Morari, Ladakh Himalaya, India. Integrated pressure–temperature–time determinations within petrographically well‐constrained settings for zircon‐ and/or monazite‐bearing assemblages in mafic eclogite boudins and host aluminous gneisses at Tso Morari uniquely document segments of both the prograde burial and retrograde exhumation path for HP/UHP units in this portion of the western Himalaya. Poikiloblastic cores and inclusion‐poor rims of compositionally zoned garnet in mafic eclogite were utilized with entrapped inclusions and matrix minerals for thermobarometric calculations and isochemical phase diagram construction, the latter thermodynamic modelling performed with and without the consideration of cation fractionation into garnet during prograde metamorphism. Analysis of the garnet cores document (M1) conditions of 21.5 ± 1.5 kbar and 535 ± 15 °C during early garnet growth and re‐equilibration. Sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb analysis of zircon inclusions in garnet cores yields a maximum age determination of 58.0 ± 2.2 Ma for M1. Peak HP/UHP (M2) conditions are constrained at 25.5–27.5 kbar and 630–645 °C using the assemblage garnet rim–omphacite–rutile–phengite–lawsonite–talc–quartz (coesite), with mineral compositional data and regional considerations consistent with the upper P–T bracket. A SHRIMP U–Pb age determination of 50.8 ± 1.4 Ma for HP/UHP metamorphism is given by M2 zircons analysed in the eclogitic matrix and that are encased in the garnet rim. Two garnet‐bearing assemblages from the Puga gneiss (host to the mafic eclogites) were utilized to constrain the subsequent decompression path. A non‐fractionated isochemical phase diagram for the assemblage phengite–garnet–biotite–plagioclase–quartz–melt documents a restricted (M3) P–T stability field centred on 12.5 ± 0.5 kbar and 690 ± 25 °C. A second non‐fractionated isochemical phase diagram calculated for the lower pressure assemblage garnet–cordierite–sillimanite–biotite–plagioclase–quartz–melt (M4) documents a narrow P–T stability field ranging between 7–8.4 kbar and 705–755 °C, which is consistent with independent multiequilibria P–T determinations. Th–Pb SHRIMP dating of monazite cores surrounded by allanite rims is interpreted to constrain the timing of the M4 equilibration to 45.3 ± 1.1 Ma. Coherently linking metamorphic conditions with petrographically constrained ages at Tso Morari provides an integrated context within which previously published petrological or geochronological results can be evaluated. The new composite path is similar to those published for the Kaghan UHP locality in northern Pakistan, although the calculated 12‐mm a^?1 rate of post‐pressure peak decompression at Tso Morari would appear less extreme.