Interaction of Tidal and Fluvial Processes in the Transition Zone of the Santee River, SC, USA

This study was conducted in the freshwater reach of the Santee River approximately 55?±?4?km from the mouth, a transition zone from a fluvial to an estuarine tidal regime. The dataset comprises bathymetric surveys, current profile and bottom pressure measurements at two locations, and time series of discharge. Our data indicate that the transition zone is characterized by strong tidal dissipation and distinctive channel geometry. Tidal dissipation is evident in the rapid decrease of the M₂ amplitude to the mean along-channel velocity ratio from 2.1 to 0.9 over a ??6-km distance. Channel cross-sectional area in the transition zone converges at a higher rate than both upstream and downstream while channel depth reveals threefold variations in the form of adjacent shoals and deeps. We hypothesize that the enhanced tidal dissipation is at the same time a cause and a result of strongly convergent bathymetry in the transition zone.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

Influence of upper air conditions on the Patagonia icefields

Upper-air conditions archived in the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis have been used to investigate changes in precipitation and snowfall over the Patagonia icefields during 1960–99. Apparently, whereas total precipitation has not changed, warming has caused a decrease in the amount falling as snow. Precipitation at a site is taken to be proportional to the product of the relative humidity and the component of the wind in a particular critical direction, both at 850 hPa ( 1400 m) at a point over the ocean to the west of the icefields; whether it falls as rain or snow is assumed to depend on whether the temperature at the elevation of the site is above or below + 2 °C. The critical direction is assumed to be 270°, which is perpendicular to the north–south trending Andes and is also the prevailing wind direction in this zone of strong westerlies. Because of the scarcity of precipitation records on or near the icefields, the constant of proportionality cannot be determined, so the investigation is limited to examining relative changes in those upper air variables. Warming at 850 hPa has been 0.5 °C over the 40 years, both winter and summer, with the effects that it has: (1) shifted from snow to rain 5% of the precipitation, the total of which has changed little, and (2) increased annual melt in the ablation areas by 0.5 m w.e. The icefields have been losing mass since at least 1870, so this 40-year trend represents only an acceleration of the longer-term trend of adjusting to climate change since the Little Ice Age.     

Making other earths: dynamical simulations of terrestrial planet formation and water delivery

We present results from 44 simulations of late stage planetary accretion, focusing on the delivery of volatiles (primarily water) to the terrestrial planets. Our simulations include both planetary “embryos” (defined as Moon to Mars sized protoplanets) and planetesimals, assuming that the embryos formed via oligarchic growth. We investigate volatile delivery as a function of Jupiter's mass, position and eccentricity, the position of the snow line, and the density (in solids) of the solar nebula. In all simulations, we form 1-4 terrestrial planets inside 2 AU, which vary in mass and volatile content. In 44 simulations we have formed 43 planets between 0.8 and 1.5 AU, including 11 “habitable” planets between 0.9 and 1.1 AU. These planets range from dry worlds to “water worlds” with 100+oceans of water (1 ocean=1.5×10²⁴ g), and vary in mass between 0.23M_⊕ and 3.85M_⊕. There is a good deal of stochastic noise in these simulations, but the most important parameter is the planetesimal mass we choose, which reflects the surface density in solids past the snow line. A high density in this region results in the formation of a smaller number of terrestrial planets with larger masses and higher water content, as compared with planets which form in systems with lower densities. We find that an eccentric Jupiter produces drier terrestrial planets with higher eccentricities than a circular one. In cases with Jupiter at 7 AU, we form what we call “super embryos,” 1-2M_⊕ protoplanets which can serve as the accretion seeds for 2+M_⊕ planets with large water contents.     

Subaqueous morphology of Lake Lucerne (Central Switzerland): implications for mass movements and glacial history

Bathymetric data available for Swiss lakes have typically only low to moderate resolution and variable quality, making them insufficient for detailed underwater geomorphological studies. This article presents results of a new bathymetric survey in perialpine Lake Lucerne using modern hydrographic equipment. A digital terrain model (DTM) of the lake floor (raster dataset with 1 m cell size) covering the Chrüztrichter and Vitznau basins documents signatures of major Holocene mass movements and relics from the glacial history of the lake. Combining the bathymetry data with reflection seismic profiles and an existing event chronology allows investigating the morphology in its geological context. Subaqueous sediment slide scars with sharp headwalls cover large areas on moderately inclined slopes. The particularly large Weggis slide complex, correlated with an historical earthquake (ad 1601), features a ~9 km long and 4–7 m high headwall and covers an area of several square kilometers. Large debris cones of prehistoric rockfalls and the deposits of recent rockfall events imaged on the almost flat basin plain document mass-movement activity on steep slopes above the lake. Six transverse moraines, visible as subaqueous ridges, as lake-floor lineaments, or only imaged on reflection seismic profiles, indicate a complex glacial-inherited morphology. As many of the documented features result from potentially catastrophic events, high-resolution bathymetry can significantly improve natural hazard assessment for lakeshore communities by extending classical hazard maps to the subaqueous domain.     

Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it??s important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it??s unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Ni?o events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.     

Heterogeneous pumice populations in the 2.08-Ma Cerro Gal��n Ignimbrite: implications for magma recharge and ascent preceding a large-volume silicic eruption

Triggering mechanisms of large silicic eruptions remain a critical unsolved problem. We address this question for the ~2.08-Ma caldera-forming eruption of Cerro Galán volcano, Argentina, which produced distinct pumice populations of two colors: grey (5%) and white (95%) that we believe may hold clues to the onset of eruptive activity. We demonstrate that the color variations correspond to both textural and compositional variations between the clast types. Both pumice types have bulk compositions of high-K, high-silica dacite to low-silica rhyolite, but there are sufficient compositional differences (e.g., ~150?ppm lower Ba at equivalent SiO₂ content and 0.03?wt.% higher TiO₂ in white pumice than grey) to suggest that the two pumice populations are not related by simple fractionation. Trace element concentrations in crystals mimic bulk variations between clast types, with grey pumice containing elevated Ba, Cu, Pb, and Zn concentrations in both bulk samples (average Cu, Pb, and Zn concentrations are 27, 35, and 82 in grey pumice vs. 11, 19, and 60 in white pumice) and biotite phenocrysts and white pumice showing elevated Li concentrations in biotite and plagioclase phenocrysts. White and grey clasts are also texturally distinct: White pumice clasts contain abundant phenocrysts (44?C57%), lack microlites, and have highly evolved groundmass glass compositions (76.4?C79.6?wt.% SiO₂), whereas grey pumice clasts contain a lower percentage of phenocrysts/microphenocrysts (35?C49%), have abundant microlites, and have less evolved groundmass glass compositions (69.4?C73.8?wt.% SiO₂). There is also evidence for crystal transfer between magma producing white and grey pumice. Thin highly evolved melt rims surround some fragmental crystals in grey pumice clasts and appear to have come from magma that produced white pumice. Furthermore, based on crystal compositions, white bands within banded pumice contain crystals originating in grey magma. Finally, only grey pumice clasts form breadcrusted surface textures. We interpret these compositional and textural variations to indicate distinct magma batches, where grey pumice originated from an originally deeper, more volatile-rich dacite recharge magma that ascended through and mingled with the volumetrically dominant, more highly crystalline chamber that produced white pumice. Shortly before eruption, the grey pumice magma stalled within shallow fractures, forming a vanguard magma phase whose ascent may have provided a trigger for eruption of the highly crystalline rhyodacite magma. We suggest that in the case of the Cerro Galán eruption, grey pumice provides evidence not only for cryptic silicic recharge in a large caldera system but also a probable trigger for the eruption.