Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

A model of impulsive loop flares revisited

A critical examination of the components of the recent impulsive loop flare model of Takakura is made. It is found that his analysis of the stability of the electron distribution resulting from anomalous heat conduction is in error and electron plasma waves would not be excited. Rather, in the regions where the electron/proton temperature ratioT _e/T _i 10, electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves would be excited and in the regions whereT _e 10, ion-acoustic waves would be excited. Ratios ofT _e/T _i 10 occur only in the late time development behind the conduction fronts. Since the anomalous resistivity due to electrostatic ion-cyclotron waves is fortuitously about 70% of the one used by Takakura, the general development will follow closely the one calculated by him. Because the anomalous resistivity due to ion-acoustic waves is about 95 times the one used by Takakura, the development in the parts of the loop whereT _e/T _i 10 for late times would be altered considerably.Also Guest Worker at NOAA Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.     

Fire Severity,Water Repellency Characteristics and Hydrogeomorphological Changes Following the Christmas 2001 Sydney Forest Fires

Soil water repellency can enhance overland flow and erosion and may be altered by fire. The Christmas 2001 bushfires near Sydney allowed investigation of the relationship between fire severity, water repellency and hydrogeomorphological changes. For two sub-catchments with differences in fire severities in Nattai National Park, south-west of Sydney, this paper considers: (1) the links between fire severity based on SPOT image analysis and ground observation of fire severity and repellency; (2) the textural and organic/minerogenic characteristics of eroded sediment; and (3) erodibility, erosion and deposition of soils in both catchments. Ground surveys show that image analysis reflects well the degree of vegetation consumption by fire, but cannot adequately predict the degree of ground litter consumption, associated soil heating and repellency effects. Fire had varying effects on repellency, leaving it unchanged, destroying it or enhancing it, depending on the soil temperature reached. The main post-fire hydrogeomorphological changes have been widespread erosion and colluvial and alluvial deposition of topsoil in foot-slope locations and river systems, but only localised redistribution of the highly erodible, repellent sandy subsurface layer. The fire did not trigger major geomorphological change in the study area, but fires probably cause important topsoil and nutrient depletion and may also affect water quality.     

Statewide Estimates of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits on a statewide basis offer a different perspective on the nation's undiscovered resources of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. Mean estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits statewide were extracted from the estimates of undiscovered deposits nationwide. More than 50 undiscovered deposits are estimated to occur in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Estimating the number of undiscovered deposits statewide serves as a measure of a state's total remaining mineral resources in known conventional deposit types.     

Carbonate equilibria in hydrothermal systems: First ionization of carbonic acid in NaCl media to 300°C

The ionization quotients of aqueous carbon dioxide (carbonic acid) have been precisely determined in NaCl media to 5 m and from 50° to 300°C using potentiometric apparatus previously developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The pressure coefficient was also determined to 250°C in the same media. These results have been combined with selected information in the literature and modeled in two ways to arrive at the best fits and to derive the thermodynamic parameters for the ionization reaction, including the equilibrium constant, activity coefficient quotients, and pressure coefficients. The variation with temperature of the two fundamental quantities $\text{Δ}\text{V}\text{?}{}^{\mathrm{o}}$ and $\text{Δ}\text{C}\text{?}{}^{\mathrm{o}}{}_{\mathrm{p}}$ were examined along the saturation vapor pressure curve and at constant density. The results demonstrated again that for reactions with minimal electrostriction changes the magnitudes and variations of $\text{Δ}\text{C}\text{?}{}^{\mathrm{o}}{}_{\mathrm{p}}$ and $\text{Δ}\text{V}\text{?}{}^{\mathrm{o}}$ with temperature are small and, in addition, $\text{Δ}\text{C}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{p}}$ and $\text{Δ}\text{V}\text{?}$ are approximately independent of salt concentration.The results have also been applied to an examination of the solubility of calcite as a function of pH (in a given NaCl medium) for the neutral to acidic region both for systems with fixed CO₂ pressure and systems where the calcium ion concentration equals the concentration of carbon. The pH of saturated solutions of calcite with P_CO2 of 12 bars increases from 5.1 to 5.5 between 100° and 300°C.     

The relation between typical concentrations of chemical constituents in potable water and their injurious limits

 There is an obvious similarity between the values of the typical concentrations of the inorganic and synthetic organic constituents in potable water and their injurious limits to human health. This similarity is attributed to the adaptation of man to his environment, i.e. it has resulted from natural selection. Received: 6 August 1999 · Accepted: 30 November 1999