Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.     

Derivation of Structure Parameters of Temperature and Humidity in the Convective Boundary Layer from Large-Eddy Simulations and Implications for the Interpretation of Scintillometer Observations

We derive the turbulent structure parameters of temperature $C_{T}^2$ and humidity $C_q^2$ from high-resolution large-eddy simulations (LES) of a homogeneously-heated convective boundary layer. Boundary conditions and model forcing were derived from measurements at Cabauw in The Netherlands. Three different methods to obtain the structure-parameters from LES are investigated. The shape of the vertical structure-parameter profiles from all three methods compare well with former experimental and LES results. Depending on the method, deviations in the magnitude up to a factor of two are found and traced back to the effects of discretization and numerical dissipation of the advection scheme. Furthermore, we validate the LES data with airborne and large-aperture scintillometer (LAS) measurements at Cabauw. Virtual path measurements are used to study the variability of $C_{T}^2$ in the mixed layer and surface layer and its implications for airborne and LAS measurements. A high variability of $C_{T}^2$ along a given horizontal path in the LES data is associated with plumes (high values) and downdrafts (low values). The path average of $C_{T}^2$ varies rapidly in time due to the limited path length. The LES results suggest that measured path averages require sufficient temporal averaging and an adequate ratio of path length to height above the ground for the LAS in order to approach the domain average of $C_{T}^2$ .     

Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate

The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches +?2.0/2.4°C in winter and +?3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating.     

Impact of justice and solidarity variables on the acceptability of managed realignment

Sea-level rise due to climate change will have significant effects on coastal areas and populations. Adaptation policies recommend the managed realignment of the most vulnerable assets and activities. Despite their medium- and long-term benefits, these policies face significant friction due to social acceptability in the communities where they are implemented.

This article investigates the hypothesis that respecting principles of justice in the implementation of managed realignment should increase its acceptability. We compare preferences of those people who are exposed to the risk of climate-change-induced flooding and those who are not, as regards funding managed retreat policies and defining compensation criteria for assets at risk. The main theories of social justice provide the four principles included in the analysis: efficiency, need, responsibility and priority assigned to property rights.

A choice experiment survey was conducted with 258 residents of coastal and hinterland communities in the south of France. Four attributes were selected to define the managed realignment policy: the dialogue arrangements, the implementation period, the policy implementation schedule and the cost. The results show support for a relatively fast launch of these policies (within 15 years) but in stages and through a process of dialogue with the population. People's perceptions of the funding criteria reveal a preference for national solidarity. Finally, national funding of managed retreat policies and compensation criteria based on market prices have a significant positive influence on the acceptability of managed realignment policies, whereas introducing responsibility-based compensation criteria tends to favour the status quo over the adaptation policy.

Policy relevance

Prioritization of the funding criteria reveals the preference for national solidarity. Preferences for the justice criteria underpinning compensation reveal a great diversity of values. Besides implantation modalities, preferences for managed realignment policies depend on which level they are implemented at, on the expropriation criteria (the emphasis given to property rights, i.e. market price), on the attachment (people perceived as worst off, i.e. the property is their main residence rather than a second home or they have lower levels of income) and on the degree of responsibility (related to the date of purchase, i.e. on the information given at the time on the risk).     

Kuramoto Model of Nonlinear Coupled Oscillators as a Way for Understanding Phase Synchronization: Application to Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

We apply a Kuramoto model of nonlinear coupled oscillators to the simulation of slow variations of the phase difference between sunspot number [R _I ] and geomagnetic indices [aa and ζ]. The Kuramoto model is described for the particular case of two oscillators connected by symmetric coupling with quasi-stationary behavior, and its properties are investigated. By solving an inverse problem, we reconstruct the evolution of the couplings between pairs of indices [R _I and aa, R _I and ζ, aa and ζ], and interpret these in terms of the physics of the solar dynamo. The de-correlation between R _I and geomagnetic indices found in Solar Cycle 20 by Le Mouël et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 117, A09103, 2012) is successfully reproduced by the Kuramoto model and corresponds to the alternation of the leading oscillator. Application of the Kuramoto model to the cross-correlations [C(R _I ,ζ) and C(aa,ζ)] for ζ-indices computed in eight geomagnetic stations shows the latitudinal dependence of the mean phase difference. We discuss these results in terms of the solar-wind contribution to local geomagnetic indices [ζ].     

Optimized Herschel/PACS photometer observing and data reduction strategies for moving solar system targets

The “TNOs are Cool!: A survey of the trans-Neptunian region” is a Herschel Open Time Key Program that aims to characterize planetary bodies at the outskirts of the Solar System using PACS and SPIRE data, mostly taken as scan-maps. In this paper we summarize our PACS data reduction scheme that uses a modified version of the standard pipeline for basic data reduction, optimized for faint, moving targets. Due to the low flux density of our targets the observations are confusion noise limited or at least often affected by bright nearby background sources at 100 and 160 \(\mu \) m. To overcome these problems we developed techniques to characterize and eliminate the background at the positions of our targets and a background matching technique to compensate for pointing errors. We derive a variety of maps as science data products that are used depending on the source flux and background levels and the scientific purpose. Our techniques are also applicable to a wealth of other Herschel solar system photometric observations, e.g. comets and near-Earth asteroids. The principles of our observing strategies and reduction techniques for moving targets will also be applicable for similar surveys of future infrared space projects.     

Ground-based electromagnetic studies combined with remote sensing based on Demeter mission: A way to monitor active faults and volcanoes

The identification of magnetic, electric and electromagnetic (EM) precursory signals related to volcanic activities and earthquakes is still a matter of debate. Some examples are now well established, but they are often based on a few parameters recorded on sparse equipments and with no multi-disciplinary approach. Demeter program takes into account a more complete approach of EM phenomena related to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, by combining both ground-based and satellite EM monitoring, from direct current to several kilohertz, i.e. from ULF, ELF to VLF frequency domains.The research program stands in two parts: one is the identification of EM signals at the satellite altitude and the other consists in detailed studies in a few pilot sites on the ground. Two main test sites have been considered: La Fournaise volcano in Réunion Island and the seismogenic Corinth rift in Greece. Both sites allow for performing EM studies in a multi-disciplinary environment.La Fournaise volcano erupts on average two times a year. The self-recording Demeter EM station is composed of three modules measuring the components of the magnetic and electric fields in three different frequency domains: DC to 0.5 Hz, 0.0033-160 Hz and 8-10 kHz. Preliminary observations made during the May 2003 eruption show that electric and magnetic signals appeared before the eruption. Some signals present sharp step-like variations, with amplitudes up to several hundreds mV per km and a few hour duration, followed by periods with a higher spectral frequency content. The frequency of these signals can be of several tens of Hz.The Corinth rift is a highly seismic area, frequently affected by seismic swarms. In 2004 the region has experienced tens of earthquakes of magnitude less than 4.6. A Demeter station has been set up on the Trizonia Island along the northern mainland coast, where a 30 km long seismic gap has been identified. The station is composed of two modules recording the three components of the magnetic field and the two horizontal components of the electric field in the ULF and ELF-VLF frequency bands. The audiomagnetotelluric soundings show that the station is close to a regional conductive fault connected to the sea. The first 4 months of observation clearly show that 29 earthquakes, even of low magnitude (M?2.8), occurring at less than 140 km of distance of the station, have generated electric signals when the seismic waves have passed the EM station. For a given magnitude of the earthquake, the energy of the electric signal is independent of the distance between the focal source and the EM station, which points out local electric source mechanisms. The greater the magnitude of the earthquake, the greater is the energy of the electric signal is. The co-seismic electric signals have the same morphology as that of the passing seismic wave, and there is no noticeable time delay between the electric and the seismic signals. This simultaneity between the seismic and the electric signal is best explained by the generation of an electrokinetic effect due to the passage of the seismic wave through the seawater-saturated ground.     

First Results from SWAN Lyman α solar wind mapper on SOHO

After one year of almost flawless operation on board the SOHO spacecraft poised at L1 Lagrange point, we report the main features of SWAN observations. SWAN is mainly dedicated to the monitoring of the latitude distribution of the solar wind by the Lα method. Maps of sky Lα emissions were recorded througout the year. The region of maximum emission, located in the upwind hemisphere, deviates strongly from the pattern that could be expected from a solar wind constant with latitude. It is divided into two lobes by a depression aligned with the solar equatorial plane called the Lyα groove already noted in 1976 Prognoz data. The north lobe is much brighter than the south lobe. These two characteristics can be explained qualitatively by an enhanced ionization along the neutral sheet where the slow solar wind is concentrated, which results from the higher low-latitude solar wind mass flux as measured by Ulysses. The groove is the direct imprint on the sky of the enhanced carving by the slow solar wind, at this time of solar minimum, when the tilt angle of the neutral sheet is small. The question is still pending to predict what will happen with the ascending phase of the solar cycle. Observations of comets are briefly mentioned, with the ability of SWAN to monitor the H₂O production of many comets. Operations of the instrument are briefly described, including some instrumental problems which could be solved by software modifications sent to the instrument. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1004979605559