Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

The atmospheric heat source over the Bolivian plateau for a mean January

The atmospheric heat sources of large plateaus strongly influence the general circulation particularly in the summer season. The Bolivian plateau and the adjacent areas affect the upper tropospheric flow in a typical summer month by developing an anticyclone and deflecting the prevailing westerlies. The plateau initially warms the atmosphere through sensible heating and then through latent heating as thunderstorms develop.The atmospheric heat source over the Bolivian and adjacent plateau was computed employing conventional surface and satellite radiation data for the mean January 1979. Because of a lack of direct ground temperature data, the surface radiation was estimated following an empirical formula devised for some earlier Tibetan studies.The results revealed that the latent heating developing in the eastern and northeastern part of the plateau is the biggest contributor to the atmospheric heat source (500 W m^-2). A comparison of these results against similar recent results from Tibet showed that the atmospheric heat source in South America is stronger than that over Tibet, primarily because of increased rainfall over Bolivia.     

Delineation of groundwater prospective zones from a delta region of India,using geoelectrical and water quality approach

Geoelectrical survey was carried out in the western delta region of River Vasista Godavari, Andhra Pradesh, India, for delineation of groundwater prospective zones due to acute shortage of water supply for various purposes. Forty-six vertical electrical soundings (VES) were done, employing the Schlumberger configuration with a maximum AB/2 of 160 m. The interpreted results of VES show four to five layers with variable thicknesses, such as topsoil zone (1.5–3 m), clay zone (0.84–32 m), finer sand zone (2–72 m), medium to coarse sand zone (4 to 28.8 m) and clay zone (1.2–∞ m), indicating a multi-aquifer system. These results are corroborated with the known lithologs of the study area. Further, the resistivity is also compared with electrical conductivity (EC) of groundwater observed nearby shallow wells representing buried channel (BC), flood plain (FP) and coastal (C) zones, which indicate slightly brackish to brackish water (EC: 1470–6010 µS/cm), whereas the groundwater observed from deep wells shows the fresh (EC: 726–1380 µS/cm), fresh to brackish (EC: 1010 to 3250 µS/cm), and brackish water (EC: 3020 to 4170 µS/cm) located in BC, FP and C zones, respectively. This survey reveals the prospective aquifer zones with potable water at VES locations of 4–6, 8, 10, 11, 14, 16–28, 33–36, 39 and 42–44, where the resistivity values vary from 10 to 40 Ω m. The slightly brackish and brackish water zones are also observed from the resistivity of less than 10 Ω m at shallow depth in BC (VES-22, 37, 38 and 46), FP (VES-1, 2, 7, 29, 30 and 40) and C (VES-3, 4, 9, 12, 13, 15, 31, 32, 41 and 45) zones. As a result, the present investigation has delineated the freshwater zones at shallow (<?12 m) and also at deeper depths (30–45 m) as prospective areas, where BC zone occurs. Freshwater pockets also identified in FP (VES-8 and 39) and C (VES-11, 14 and 15) zones. Thus, this study helps to solve the drinking and irrigation water problems.     

栉孔扇贝精子形成过程的超微结构研究

通过电镜观察,描述了栉孔扇贝精子形成过程的超微结构变化。栉孔扇贝的精子过程可分成为早期,中期和后期３个阶段。（１）早期：细胞核呈团块状,近端中心粒移向精子细胞的后端并嵌在核的凹窝处,在被观察的视野内,可见到大量与精子细胞分离的成熟鞭毛。（２）中期：核由团块状向流线型转变。顶体泡向帽状顶体转变,顶体下间隙开始出现。近端中心粒分化出中心粒卫星体。（３）后期：精子细胞核变成上窄下宽的长柱状,形成帽状顶体     

Rock magnetic records of the sediments of the eastern Arabian Sea: Evidence for late Quaternary climatic change

Rock-magnetic measurements along with grain size, acid-insoluble residue (AIR), organic carbon (OC), CaCO₃ and δ¹⁸O of the planktonic foraminifers of the sediments were determined for 15 gravity cores recovered from the western continental margin of India. Magnetic susceptibility (MS) values in the surficial sediments reflect the land-derived input and, in general, are the highest in terrigenous sediment-dominated sections of the cores off Saurashtra–Ratnagiri, followed by the sediments off Indus–Gulf of Kachchh and then Mangalore–Cape Comorin.

The down-core variations in mineral magnetic parameters reveal that the glacial sediments off the Indus are characterized by low MS values/S-ratios associated with high AIR-content, low OC/CaCO₃ contents and relatively high δ¹⁸O values, while those off SW India are characterized by low MS values/high S-ratio% associated with low AIR content, and relatively high OC, CaCO₃ and δ¹⁸O values. Conversely, the Early Holocene sediments of all cores are characterized by high MS values/S-ratio% associated with high AIR content, low OC, CaCO₃ contents and gradually decreased δ¹⁸O values. These results imply that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the cores off northwestern India received abundant continental supply leading to the predominance of eolian/fluvial sedimentation. In the SW region the influence of hinterland flux is less evident during this period, but convective mixing associated with the NE monsoon resulted in increased productivity. During the early Holocene intense SW monsoon conditions resulted in high precipitation on land, which in turn contributed increased AIR content/MS values in the continental margin sediments. A shallow water core off Kochi further suggests that the intense SW monsoon conditions prevailed until about 5 ka. The late Holocene organic-rich sediments of the SW margin of India were, however, subjected to early diagenesis at different intervals in the cores. Therefore, caution is needed when interpreting regional climatic change from down-core changes in sediment magnetic properties.     

地球化学计算中误差传递分析的应用

通过两个实例讨论了地球化学计算中的误差传递问题,对照了四种不同方法的潜力和限制,拓广了蒙特卡洛方法在相关变量分析中的应用,指出其在不同条件下总能用有限机时逼近合理结果,揭示出协方差矩阵法的特殊效益,可相对于独立初始变量展现中间变量的相关关系。     

Rare earth elements in suspended and bottom sediments of the Mandovi estuary, central west coast of India: Influence of mining

Rare earth elements (REEs) in the suspended particulate matter (SPM) of the Mandovi estuary indicated that the mean total-REEs (∑REE) and light REE to heavy REE ratios are lower than that of the average suspended sediment in World Rivers and Post-Archean average Australian shale. High ∑REE were associated with high SPM/low salinity and also with high SPM/high salinity. Although the ∑REE broadly agree with SPM levels at each station, their seasonal distributions along transect are different. SPM increased seaward in the estuary both during the monsoon and pre-monsoon, but consistently low at all stations during the post-monsoon. The mean ∑REE decreased marginally seaward and was <25% at sea-end station than at river-end station. Spatial variations in ∑REE are maximum (64%) during the pre-monsoon. Strong to moderate correlation of ∑REE with Al, Fe and Mn in all seasons indicates adsorption and co-precipitation of REEs with aluminosilicate phases and Fe, Mn-oxyhydroxides. The ratio of mean ∑REE in sediment/SPM is low during the monsoon (1.27), followed by pre-monsoon (1.5) and post-monsoon (1.62). The middle REE- and heavy REE-enriched patterns with positive Ce and Eu anomalies are characteristic at every station and season, both in SPM and sediment. They also exhibit tetrad effect with distinct third and fourth tetrads. Fe-Mn ore dust is the most dominant source for REEs. However, the seasonal changes in the supply of detrital silicates, Fe-Mn ore dust and particulates resuspended from bottom sediments diluted the overall effect of salinity on fractionation and distribution of REEs in the estuary.     

CPI values of terrestrial higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes: a potential paleoclimatic proxy

Carbon Preference Index (CPI values) of higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes extracted from 62 surface soil samples in eastern China exhibited a specific pattern of variations, namely gradual increase with the increasing latitudes. Such regular variations existed in both forest soil and grassland soil. Our data implied that CPI values of higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes had a certain connection with climatic conditions, and such a connection was not influenced by vegetation types. Together with previous data from marine sediments, loess/paleosol sequences, tertiary red clay and modern plants, our observation made us conclude that CPI values of higher plant-derived long-chain n-alkanes may be used as an excellent proxy for paleoclimatic studies.     

Influence of lunar phases,winds and seasonality on the stranding of mesopelagic fish in the Strait of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea)

The shore stranding of mesopelagic fauna is a recurrent phenomenon in the Strait of Messina (Central Mediterranean Sea). The aim of this paper is to test the influence of lunar phases, winds and seasons upon the frequency of occurrence of strandings of mesopelagic fish. Species abundance in relation to these factors was quantified for the first time. Specimens were collected stranded on the shore along the Sicilian coast of the Strait of Messina between 2008 and 2016. Overall 32 species belonging to seven families (Gonostomatidae, Microstomatidae, Myctophidae, Paralepididae, Phosichthyidae, Sternoptychidae, Stomiidae) were found stranded. Myctophidae was the family including the highest number of species (16), whereas Gonostomatidae was the most abundant in terms of total number of individuals (47.2%), mainly thanks to the species Cyclothone braueri. The moon, which influences the strength of currents (highest during full and new moon phases) and irradiance (higher in some lunar phases, such as the full moon), affected the abundance of stranded mesopelagic fish in the study area. The highest number of stranding events was recorded during the new moon: 34.6% of the total relative abundance of stranded mesopelagic fish. Wind blowing from the sea towards the coastline (southeasterly and easterly winds) created the best conditions for strandings. The highest abundance of stranded specimens was recorded during the winter season.     

滇西上芒岗红色粘土型金矿成冈研究

上芒岗金矿是滇西地区具代表性的红色粘土型金矿。依据堆积特征、矿物组合和化学成分,可将红色粘土剖面分为６个带,即表土带、坡积带、钙 －沼当带、残积带、腐泥岩带和基岩带。其中,腐泥岩带为岩溶坍塌成因,残积带由岩溶残积形成,钙２结－沼泽带和坡积带为地表水流搬运堆积。矿床成因为在中晚燕山其形成的原生卡林型金矿化基础上,经第三纪上新世的岩深、残积和坡积作用的预富集,由不彻底的红土化作用使金以硫代硫酸盐络合物