Landslide detection in the Himalayas using machine learning algorithms and U-Net

Landslides - Event-based landslide inventories are essential sources to broaden our understanding of the causal relationship between triggering events and the occurring landslides. Moreover,...     

Did the Indo‐Asian summer monsoon decrease during the Holocene following insolation?

A few studies from the western Arabian Sea indicate that the Indian summer (or southwest) monsoon (ISM), after attaining its maximum intensity at ca. 9 ka, declined during the Holocene, as did insolation. In contrast, earlier and later observations from both the eastern and the western Arabian Sea do not support this inference. Analysis of multiple proxies of productivity in a new sediment core from the western Arabian Sea fails to confirm the earlier, single‐proxy (e.g. abundance of Globigerina bulloides) based, inference of the Holocene weakening of ISM, following insolation. The reason for the observed decreasing trend in foraminiferal abundance – the basis for the earlier inference – could be the favouring of silicate rather than carbonate productivity by the increased ISM wind strength. Although ISM exhibits several multi‐millennial scale fluctuations, there is no evidence from several multi‐proxy data to conclude that it declined during the Holocene; this is consistent with the phase lag analysis of longer time series of monsoon proxies. Thus, on sub‐Milankovitch timescales, ISM did not follow insolation, highlighting the importance of internal feedbacks. A comparison with East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) records suggests that both ISM and EASM varied in unison, implying common forcing factors on such longer timescales. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the aftershock sequence of a 4.6 mb earthquake of the Garhwal Himalaya

Locally recorded data for eighteen aftershocks of a magnitude(m_b) 4.6 earthquake occurring near Ukhimath in the Garhwal Himalaya were analysed. A master event technique was adopted to locate seventeen individual aftershock hypocentres relative to the hypocentre of the eighteenth aftershock chosen as the master event. The aftershock epicentres define an approximately 30 km² rupture zone commensurate with the magnitude of the earthquake. The distribution of epicentres within this zone and the limited amount of first motion data support the view that a group of parallel, sub-vertical, sinistral strike-slip faults oriented N46°, transverse to the regional NW-SE trend of the Garhwal Himalaya, was involved in this seismic episode. Since the estimated focal depth range for aftershocks of this sequence is 3–14 km, we infer that this transverse fault zone extends through the upper crustal layer to a depth of 14 km at least.     

Systematic errors in the medium range prediction of the Asian summer monsoon circulation

The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988). Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system. Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.     

Characteristics of certain surface meteorological parameters in relation to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

With an objective to understand the influence of surface marine meteorological parameters in relation to the extreme monsoon activity over the Indian sub-continent leading to flood/drought, a detailed analysis of the sea level pressure over the Southern Hemisphere and various surface meteorological parameters over the Indian seas is carried out. The present study using the long term data sets (Southern Hemispheric Sea Level Pressure Analysis; Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set over the Indian Seas; Surface Station Climatology Data) clearly indicates that the sea surface temperature changes over the south eastern Pacific (El Ninõ/La Niña) have only a moderate impact (not exceeding 50% reliability) on the Indian summer monsoon activity. On the other hand, the sea level pressure anomaly (SOI) over Australia and the south Pacific has a reasonably high degree of significance (more than 70%) with the monsoon activity over India. However, these two parameters (SLP and SST) do not show any significant variability over the Indian seas in relation to the summer monsoon activity. Over the Indian seas, the parameters which are mainly associated with the convective activity such as cloud cover, relative humidity and the surface wind were found to have a strong association with the extreme monsoon activity (flood/drought) and thus the net oceanic heat loss over the Indian seas provides a strong positive feed-back for the monsoon activity over India.     

Kinetics of silica sorption and clay dissolution reactions at 1 and 670 atm

Rates of reactions between clay minerals and silica-spiked seawater and the effect of pressure on the direction, extent and rate of such reactions have been studied. Kinetic behavior of short-term, clay-silica reaction indicates that diffusion is the rate controlling process in both clay dissolution and clay reconstitution reactions. Rate constants of these reactions are of the order of 10^?13 moles/ sec^{$\text{1}\text{2}$}cm². No significant pressure effect on the rate of clay dissolution was observed. Estimates of diffusion coefficient of silicic acid for clay dissolution and silica sorption reactions indicate that the true value lies within the range, 10^?13–10^?17cm²/sec, thus reflecting the semicrystalline or amorphous nature of the reaction product through which diffusion is occurring.     

Multi-Wavelength Observations of an Unusual Impulsive Flare Associated with Cme

We present the results of a detailed analysis of multi-wavelength observations of a very impulsive solar flare 1B/M6.7, which occurred on 10 March, 2001 in NOAA AR 9368 (N27 W42). The observations show that the flare is very impulsive with a very hard spectrum in HXR that reveal that non-thermal emission was most dominant. On the other hand, this flare also produced a type II radio burst and coronal mass ejections (CME), which are not general characteristics for impulsive flares. In H we observed bright mass ejecta (BME) followed by dark mass ejecta (DME). Based on the consistency of the onset times and directions of BME and CME, we conclude that these two phenomena are closely associated. It is inferred that the energy build-up took place due to photospheric reconnection between emerging positive parasitic polarity and predominant negative polarity, which resulted as a consequence of flux cancellation. The shear increased to >80 due to further emergence of positive parasitic polarity causing strongly enhanced cancellation of flux. It appears that such enhanced magnetic flux cancellation in a strongly sheared region triggered the impulsive flare.     

Extreme rainfall event of July 25–27, 2005 over Mumbai, West Coast, India

Extreme localised rainfall events are part of monsoon system occurring every year. Satellite data (TRMM and other geostationary satellites) together with ground observations will be useful in providing spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric changes. The short and long term variability is required for better understanding of the local and regional climatic conditions through detailed modelling. Such information will play a key role in real time data analysis and dissemination system to the disaster management groups in the country to minimize losses due to these extreme rainfall events.     

Seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean

Summary The diurnal cycle of rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean was studied for the period 23^rd October 2001 to 31^st October 2003 using hourly data from the Triton buoy positioned at 1.5° S and 90° E. An analysis of the active and weak spells of rainfall for different seasons revealed peaks in the late evening hours in Winter, Summer and Fall and in early morning hours (in Spring) in 2002. The active spell of rainfall peaked in the afternoon hours, during Winter, Spring and Summer in 2003, which agrees with the previous results of Janowiak et al. (1994). An analysis of rainfall events showed that Fall 2002 had a maximum number of rainfall events (90) and minimum (60) were observed in Spring 2003. Further it was found that the majority of rain events (>60%) were less than 3 hours in duration throughout the study period. The longer duration rainfall events (i.e. rain events greater than 6 hour duration) contributed significantly to Spring 2002 (20% of the total rainfall) and Winter 2003 (21% of the total rainfall). Harmonic analysis of the hourly rainfall data for different seasons revealed that diurnal harmonic explains more than 80% of the variance for all seasons. Furthermore, the diurnal harmonic has a maximum amplitude for all seasons except summer, where the semidiurnal and six hourly harmonics are significant.