Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

Cryptosporidium Oocysts in Drinking Water Supply of Chennai City,Southern India

Cryptosporidium is an enteric parasitic protozoan capable of causing chronic diarrhea. One of the most common modes of transmission is through faeces‐contaminated water. This study determines the distribution of Cryptosporidium oocysts for the first time in Chennai City's drinking water supply. 199 drinking water samples were collected from ten zones of the city. In the water samples Cryptosporidium, a common pathogenic protozoan of the gastrointestinal tract, has been analyzed physico chemically as well as microbiologically for heterotrophic organisms and total coliforms (TC). The studies revealed that three zones of the city were highly contaminated with coliforms and parasitic protozoa. A statistical analysis was done to find any correlation between heterotrophic organisms, total coliforms, and oocysts. Even though a positive correlation exists between oocysts and bacteriological parameters, a regression equation shows that heterotrophic plate count (HPC) and total coliforms were only 20% responsible for the presence of oocysts. The level of Cryptosporidium oocysts isolated from the water samples may present a public health hazard although no major outbreaks have so far been reported in Chennai City. Routine surveillance of water quality throughout the city is needed to curb the pollutants.     

A River Water Quality Model for Chlorophyll and Dissolved Oxygen that Accommodates Zebra Mussel Metabolism

The development, testing and application of a dynamic two-dimensional (longitudinal-vertical) mass balance model for dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll (Chl) for rivers is documented that for the first time accommodates both the oxygen demand and filtering effects of zebra mussels. The test system is a phytoplankton-rich section ( 15 km long) of the Seneca River, NY, that is believed to represent an upper bound of the impact of this exotic invader. Changes in common measures of water quality of the river brought about by the zebra mussel invasion are reviewed and related longitudinal patterns in DO, Chl, and Secchi disc transparency are documented. Model testing is supported by comprehensive measurements of DO, Chl, and various forcing conditions over a three-month period, and independent determinations of several model coefficients. Wide variations in the areal consumption rate of DO (ZOD; g·m^–2·d^–1) and filtering rate (m³·m^–2·d^–1) of zebra mussels, as determined through model calibration, occurred over the study period. Values of ZOD in areas with dense zebra mussel populations at times (e.g., > 50 g·m^–2·d^–1) were an order of magnitude greater than the sediment oxygen demand associated with organically enriched deposits. The value of determinations of these fluxes from model calibration procedures is evaluated within the context of the limitations of protocols presently available to support independent specification of these rates. Model analyses are conducted to evaluate the relative magnitude of source and sink processes for DO and Chl, the potential operation and implications of feedback from low DO levels on oxygen consumption by zebra mussels, and the sensitivity of model simulations to selected sources of uncertainty and variability. Model projections of oxygen resources of the river are presented in a probabilistic format in evaluating reductions in zebra mussel biomass that would be necessary to eliminate violations of standards and regain assimilative capacity.     

Theoretical analysis of telluric anomaly of a basin structure

The solution of a boundary value problem modelling a two-dimensional basin structure has been obtained by using the Schwartz-Christoffel conformal transformation technique and numerical methods of solving non-linear differential equations. Utilizing this solution, the telluric field and its first horizontal derivative have been theoretically computed for field directions perpendicular to the strike of the structure. On the basis of systematic analysis of a large number of such anomaly curves, two nomograms have been prepared to be used in the quantitative interpretation of telluric data. An interpretation procedure to evaluate the geometric parameters of the basin from the observed telluric data is outlined. This procedure is demonstrated on an actual field example.     

A method of obtaining a velocity-depth envelope from wide-angle seismic data

Summary. Due to the non-uniqueness of traveltime inversion of seismic data, it is more appropriate to determine a velocity-depth ( v-z ) envelope, rather than just a v-z function. Several methods of obtaining a v-z envelope by extremal inversion have been proposed, all of which invert the data primarily from either x-p , or T-p , or both domains. These extremal inversion methods may be divided into two groups: linear extremal and non-linear extremal. There is some debate whether the linearized perturbation techniques should be applied to the inherently non-linear problem of traveltime inversion. We have obtained a v-z envelope by extremal inversion in T-p with the constraint that the inversion paths also satisfy x-p observations. Thus we use data jointly in r-p and x-p , and yet avoid the linearity assumptions.
This joint, non-linear extremal inversion method has been applied to obtain a v-z envelope down to a depth of about 30 km in the Baltimore Canyon trough using x-t data from an Expanding Spread Profile acquired during the LASE project. We have found that the area enclosed by the v-z envelope is reduced by about 15 per cent using x-p control on the T-p inversion paths, compared to the inversion without x-p control.     

Contemporary deformation in the Kashmir–Himachal,Garhwal and Kumaon Himalaya: significant insights from 1995–2008 GPS time series

We present new insights on the time-averaged surface velocities, convergence and extension rates along arc-normal transects in Kumaon, Garhwal and Kashmir–Himachal regions in the Indian Himalaya from 13 years of high-precision Global Positioning System (GPS) time series (1995–2008) derived from GPS data at 14 GPS permanent and 42 campaign stations between $29.5{-}35^{\circ }\hbox {N}$ and $76{-}81^{\circ }\hbox {E}$ . The GPS surface horizontal velocities vary significantly from the Higher to Lesser Himalaya and are of the order of 30 to 48 mm/year NE in ITRF 2005 reference frame, and 17 to 2 mm/year SW in an India fixed reference frame indicating that this region is accommodating less than 2 cm/year of the India–Eurasia plate motion ( ${\sim }4~\hbox {cm/year}$ ). The total arc-normal shortening varies between ${\sim }10{-}14~\hbox {mm/year}$ along the different transects of the northwest Himalayan wedge, between the Indo-Tsangpo suture to the north and the Indo-Gangetic foreland to the south indicating high strain accumulation in the Himalayan wedge. This convergence is being accommodated differentially along the arc-normal transects; ${\sim } 5{-}10~\hbox {mm/year}$ in Lesser Himalaya and 3–4 mm/year in Higher Himalaya south of South Tibetan Detachment. Most of the convergence in the Lesser Himalaya of Garhwal and Kumaon is being accommodated just south of the Main Central Thrust fault trace, indicating high strain accumulation in this region which is also consistent with the high seismic activity in this region. In addition, for the first time an arc-normal extension of ${\sim }6~\hbox {mm/year}$ has also been observed in the Tethyan Himalaya of Kumaon. Inverse modeling of GPS-derived surface deformation rates in Garhwal and Kumaon Himalaya using a single dislocation indicate that the Main Himalayan Thrust is locked from the surface to a depth of ${\sim }15{-}20~\hbox {km}$ over a width of 110 km with associated slip rate of ${\sim }16{-}18~\hbox {mm/year}$ . These results indicate that the arc-normal rates in the Northwest Himalaya have a complex deformation pattern involving both convergence and extension, and rigorous seismo-tectonic models in the Himalaya are necessary to account for this pattern. In addition, the results also gave an estimate of co-seismic and post-seismic motion associated with the 1999 Chamoli earthquake, which is modeled to derive the slip and geometry of the rupture plane.     

Remote Sensing based assessment of glacial lake growth on Milam glacier,Goriganga basin,Kumaon Himalaya

The climate change of the twentieth century had an evident effect on glacier environments of the Himalaya. Temporal images of Indian Remote Sensing satellites provide an opportunity to monitor the recession of glacier and development of glacial lakes in the Himalayan cryosphere with a cost to time benefit ratio. The recession of Milam glacier and subsequent growth of a proglacial lake near the snout was analysed using Resourcesat-1 and Resourcesat-2 data. The recession of 480 m during 2004 to 2011 and growth of 47 epiglacial ponds over Milam glacier shows the glacier is in a state of imbalance and losing the ice by downwasting.     

Radiating star,shear-free gravitational collapse without horizon

We present a new model of dissipative energy fluid without appearance of horizon. The interior matter fluid is shear-free isotropic spherically symmetric and undergoing radial heat flow. The interior metric is matched with Vaidya exterior metric over the boundary. The model obeyed all the relevant physical and thermodynamic conditions. In this model, the collapse begins at infinite past with both infinite mass and radius and contracts to a point as time tends to zero without forming an event horizon.     

Investigation on spectral character of ELF electromagnetic radiations during Leonid 2009 meteor shower

The problem of solitary electron acoustic (EA) wave propagation in a plasma with nonthermal hot electrons featuring the Tsallis distribution is addressed. A physically meaningful nonextensive nonthermal velocity distribution is outlined. It is shown that the effect of the nonthermal electron nonextensivity on EA waves can be quite important. Interestingly, we found that the phase speed of the linear EA mode increases as the entropic index q decreases. This enhancement is weak for q>1, and significant for q<1. For a given nonthermal state, the minimum value of the allowable Mach numbers is lowered as the nonextensive nature of the electrons becomes important. This critical limit is shifted towards higher values as the nonthermal character of the plasma is increased. Moreover, our plasma model supports rarefactive EA solitary waves the main quantities of which depend sensitively on q. This dependency (for q>1) becomes less noticeable as the nonthermal parameter decreases. Nevertheless, decreasing α yields for q<0 a different result, a trend which may be attributed to the functional form of the nonthermal nonextensive distribution. Our study (which is not aimed at putting the ad hoc Cairns distribution onto a more rigorous foundation) suggests that a background electron nonextensivity may influence the EA solitons.