Two-Point Correlation Analysis Of Neutrally Stratified Flow Within And Above A Forest From Large-Eddy Simulation

Two-point space-time correlations ofvelocities, a passive scalar and static pressure arecalculated using the resolvable flow fields computedby large-eddy simulation (LES) of neutrally stratifiedflow within and above a sparse forest. Zero-time-lagspatial auto-correlation contours in thestreamwise-vertical cross-section for longitudinal andlateral velocities and for a scalar are tilted fromthe vertical in the downstream direction, as istypical in near-wall sheared flow. On the other hand,auto-correlations of vertical velocity and of staticpressure are vertically coherent. Zero-time-lagspatial auto-correlations in the spanwise-verticalcross-section show no distinct tilt, and those forboth longitudinal and vertical velocities demonstratedistinct negative side lobes in the middle forest andabove, while longitudinal velocity in the subcrowntrunk space is laterally in-phase. Static pressureperturbations appear to be spatially coherent in thespanwise direction at all heights, especially insidethe forest. Near the forest floor, longitudinalvelocity is found to be in-phase with static pressureperturbation and to be closely linked to theinstantaneous streamwise pressure gradient, supportinga previous proposal that longitudinal velocity in thisregion is dominantly modulated by the pressurepatterns associated with the coherent sweep/ejectionevents. Near treetop height, a lack of linkage betweenthe pressure gradient and the local time derivative ofthe longitudinal velocity supports the hypothesis ofadvection dominating turbulent flow.The major phase characteristics of the two-pointcorrelations essentially remained the same from fourLES runs with different domain size and/or gridresolution. A larger LES domain yielded betteragreement with field observations in a real forest onboth the magnitudes of the correlations and thesingle-point integral time scales. A finer gridresolution in the LES led to a faster rate of decreaseof correlation with increasing separation in space ortime, as did the higher frequency fluctuations in theturbulent records from field measurements. Convectivevelocities estimated from the lagged two-pointauto-correlations of the calculated flow fields werecompared with similar calculations from wind-tunnelstudies. At the canopy top, estimates from thecorrelation analyses agree with the translationvelocity estimated from instantaneous snapshots of ascalar microfront using both LES and field data. Thistranslation velocity is somewhat higher than the localmean wind speed. Convective velocities estimated fromlagged correlations increase with height above thecanopy. It is suggested that an appropriate filteringprocedure may be necessary to reduce the effects ofsmall-scale random turbulence, as was reported in astudy over an orchard canopy. The mean longitudinalvelocity near the treetops is found to be moreappropriate than the local mean longitudinal velocityat each height to link single-point integral timescales with directly calculated spatial integralstreamwise length scales.     

Palaeointensity studies of a late Permian lava succession from Guizhou Province, South China: implications for post-Kiaman dipole field behaviour

Palaeomagnetic results are presented from a volcanic sequence in Zhijin County, Guizhou Province, Southern China. The lavas and associated volcanic breccias comprising the sequence represent a southern extension of the Emeishan volcanic province. Biostratigraphic dating of interbedded limestone units and stratigraphic constraints indicate that the section formed during the late Permian (∼263–255  Ma), and is thus somewhat older than the Emei stratotype section in Sichuan Province, and close in age to reported estimates of the termination of the Permo-Carboniferous (Kiaman) reverse superchron. Rock magnetic analyses and reflected light microscopy indicate that the magnetic mineralogy of the lava units is dominated by fresh, primary magnetites containing a significant fraction of single-domain grains. Thermal demagnetization behaviour of the breccia units is poor, but most lava samples have one or two components of remanence above 250 °C. The normal polarity characteristic remanence held by the lavas implies a post-Kiaman age for this succession and suggests that the termination of the Kiaman occurred prior to 263  Ma, supporting recently published estimates. According to standard criteria, Thellier palaeointensity results from the lavas are of good quality and reveal that the dipole field strength was comparatively low shortly after the termination of the superchron. 80 per cent of samples record relative VDM values in the range 42–52 per cent of the present-day value, supporting recent studies of mid-Kiaman field intensity. This suggests that a low-energy dipole existed at least between 300 and 255  Ma and does not appear to have been confined to the stable reverse polarity interval.     

Magnetic field intensity study of the 1960 Kilauea lava flow, Hawaii, using the microwave palaeointensity technique

It is extremely valuable to study historic lava flows where the geomagnetic field at their time of extrusion is well known. In this study, two vertical sections, 16 m apart, have been sampled from the approximately 1 m thick 1960 Kilauea lava flow, Hawaii. Variations are seen in the rock-magnetic and palaeomagnetic properties between and within the two sections, indicating that there are small-scale lateral and vertical variations in the lava flow. The two sections showed different responses to microwave palaeointensity analysis. Section H6001 generally gave ideal linear behaviour on plots of natural remanent magnetization (NRM) lost against microwave-induced thermoremanent magnetization (T_M RM) gained, whilst the majority of samples from H6002 showed anomalous two-slope behaviour. When all plots were interpreted by taking the best-fitting line through all points, the flow mean intensity for H6001 was 31.6 ± 3.6 μT and that for H6002 was 37.1 ± 6.4 μT, compared with the expected intensity of 36 μT. Additional historic flows need to be studied in order to ascertain whether this behaviour is typical of all lava, and whether it is best to always interpret NRM lost/T_M RM gained plots by taking the line of best fit regardless of shape.     

Rethinking Earthquake Prediction

—We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and their possible societal uses differ for those time scales. Earthquake prediction should not be equated solely with short-term prediction—those with time scales of hours to weeks—nor should it be assumed that only short-term warnings either are or might be useful to society. A variety of "consumers" or stakeholders are likely to take different mitigation measures in response to each type of prediction. A series of recent articles in scientific literature and the media claim that earthquakes cannot be predicted and that exceedingly high accuracy is needed for predictions to be of societal value. We dispute a number of their key assumptions and conclusions, including their claim that earthquakes represent a self-organized critical (SOC) phenomenon, implying a system maintained on the edge of chaotic behavior at all times. We think this is correct but only in an uninteresting way, that is on global or continental scales. The stresses in the regions surrounding the rupture zones of individual large earthquakes are reduced below a SOC state at the times of those events and remain so for long periods. As stresses are slowly re-established by tectonic loading, a region approaches a SOC state during the last part of the cycle of large earthquakes. The presence of that state can be regarded as a long-term precursor rather than as an impediment to prediction. We examine other natural processes such as volcanic eruptions, severe storms and climate change that, like earthquakes, are also examples of complex processes, each with its own predictable, possibly predictable and inherently unpredictable elements. That a natural system is complex does not mean that predictions are not possible for some spatial, temporal and size regimes. Long-term, and perhaps intermediate-term, predictions for large earthquakes appear to be possible for very active fault segments. Predicting large events more than one cycle into the future appears to be inherently difficult, if not impossible since much of the nonlinearity in the earthquake process occurs at or near the time of large events. Progress in earthquake science and prediction over the next few decades will require increased monitoring in several active areas.     

Map-matching algorithm for large-scale low-frequency floating car data

Large-scale global positioning system (GPS) positioning information of floating cars has been recognised as a major data source for many transportation applications. Mapping large-scale low-frequency floating car data (FCD) onto the road network is very challenging for traditional map-matching (MM) algorithms developed for in-vehicle navigation. In this paper, a multi-criteria dynamic programming map-matching (MDP-MM) algorithm is proposed for online matching FCD. In the proposed MDP-MM algorithm, the MDP technique is used to minimise the number of candidate routes maintained at each GPS point, while guaranteeing to determine the best matching route. In addition, several useful techniques are developed to improve running time of the shortest path calculation in the MM process. Case studies based on real FCD demonstrate the accuracy and computational performance of the MDP-MM algorithm. Results indicated that the MDP-MM algorithm is competitive with existing algorithms in both accuracy and computational performance.     

A detailed record of normal-reversed-polarity transition obtained from a thick loess sequence at Jiuzhoutai, near Lanzhou, China

A record of normal-reversed-polarity transition has been obtained from a 4 m thickness of loess exposed at a section near Lanzhou, China. Magnetostratigraphic studies suggest it may represent a reversal bounding the onset of a reversed-polarity zone within the Jaramillo Normal Subchron. The natural remanent magnetization consists of two components: a low-coercivity (≤20mT), low-unblocking-temperature (≤300°C) component of viscous origin and a high-coercivity (>20mT), high-unblocking-temperature (250–700 °C) component carrying the characteristic remanence. Mineral magnetic analyses confirmed the presence of magnetite, its low-temperature oxidation products and haematite, each contributing to the remanence properties. Grain size and concentration showed limited variations and there was little evidence for the presence of the ultrafine magnetic phase commonly associated with palaeosol formation. Pedogenic processes appeared negligible and their effects unimportant, with detrital processes dominating the mineralogy and most probably the acquisition of the characteristic remanence. The reversal record was characterized by the decay and recovery of the geocentric axial dipole term with large directional swings occurring during periods of reduced relative palaeofield intensity. The virtual geomagnetic poles traced a complex path exhibiting no particular geographical confinement. Relative palaeofield intensity determinations were insensitive to the choice of normalization parameter and showed a distinctive asymmetry. Striking similarities were observed with the Matuyama-Jaramillo reversal record, obtained from the same section (Rolph 1993), and the Steens Mountain reversal record (Prévot el al. 1985), lending further support for the existence of unusually high post-transitional field intensities