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201.
Velocity images from stacking depth-slowness seismic wavefields 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Geraint D. Jones Penny J. Barton Satish C. Singh 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,168(2):583-592
202.
Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model
errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which
CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems
to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the
sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian
satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations
were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each
of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different
CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch
and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE),
and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating
the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute
BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It
was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde
observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four
CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in
the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation.
Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper
levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption
in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation
is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is
more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller
scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study
is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the
CPSs for different synoptic situations. 相似文献
203.
Brendon A. Bradley Rajesh P. Dhakal Misko Cubrinovski John B. Mander Greg A. MacRae 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(14):2211-2225
An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
204.
C. V. Singh 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,78(3-4):205-214
Summary
The paper deals with the variability of summer-monsoon rainfall during normal, flood and drought years over India. During
flood years the monsoon rainfall increases mostly all over parts of the country and large area less than 100 cm isohytel covers
Orissa and adjoining Madhya Pradesh. During drought years the rainfall amount decreases over the entire country and isohytel
of 100 cm shrinks to almost a point. The variability of monsoon rainfall from flood to normal to drought years depends upon
the number of depression/low-pressure area which form over the North Bay and move inland. To understand the intraseasonal
and interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall, daily and seasonal anomalies has been performed by using the Empirical
Orthogonal Function analysis. Further Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is carried out on these data to find out
the nature of rainfall distribution in different monsoon categories namely normal, flood and drought years. This technique
thus serves to identify spatial and temporal patterns characteristics of possible physical significance.
Received July 25, 2000/Revised September 26, 2000 相似文献
205.
O. P. Singh 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,78(1-2):1-9
Summary
El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to cause world-wide weather anomalies. It influences the Indian Monsoon Rainfall
(IMR) also. But due to large spatial and temporal variability of monsoon rains, it becomes difficult to state any single uniform
relationship between the ENSO and IMR that holds good over different subdivisions of India, though the general type of relationship
between all India monsoon rainfall and ENSO is known since long. The selection of the most suitable ENSO index to correlate
with the IMR is another problem. The purpose of the present study is twofold, namely, to examine the relationship between
the ENSO and IMR for entire monsoon season by using an ENSO index which represents the ENSO phenomenon in a comprehensive
way, namely, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and to establish the relationships between MEI and IMR for every meteorological
subdivision of India for each monsoon month; i.e. June, July, August and September. A comparison of MEI/IMR correlations has
been made with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)/IMR correlations. The result may find applications in the long range forecasting
of IMR on monthly and subdivisional scales, especially over the high monsoon rainfall variability regions of Northwestern
and the Peninsular India.
Received October 27, 2000 相似文献
206.
207.
The Simulation of Ground Motions Using Envelope Summations 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
—?The technique of Midorikawa (1993) has been modified to obtain a resultant envelope function at the observation point by placing the rupture causing an earthquake in a layered earth model. The method and its dependency on various modelling parameters are studied in detail. The complete study shows that the generated resultant envelope follows important strong motion characteristics such as directivity and attenuation effects. The simulated resultant envelope is further used for generating synthetic accelerograms by multiplying filtered white noise with the envelope of accelerogram at a particular observation point. Filters through which white noise passes include the effects of geometrical spreading, anelastic attenuation and near-site attenuation at high frequencies.¶Uttarkashi earthquake is among few Indian earthquakes for which strong motion data are available at thirteen different stations. Using the technique presented in this work, envelope function as well as complete acceleration time history during Uttarkashi earthquake has been simulated at these observation points. Comparison of peak acceleration, duration and acceleration response spectra confirms the utility and efficacy of the approach. 相似文献
208.
Malaria is one of the most widespread diseases in the world. Endemic malaria no longer occurs in many temperate zones as a result of social and economic improvement. At present malaria is the Third World's most dreaded killer. It kills over 1 million people and causes 300–500 million episodes of illness. In India, malaria-reported deaths have shown an upward trend. In 1955, a drive to eradicate malaria was launched in India. But after initial success it failed and malaria made a comeback. Malarial mosquitoes generally prefer unpolluted natural breeding sites but now they have adapted to the changed urban environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to examine the occurrence of malaria and related environmental issues in a small town of India. Aligarh city, lying in the shadow of the country's capital New Delhi, was selected as a case study. Data were collected mainly from household surveys with the help of questionnaire interviews. About 2,185 households belonging to different income groups were sampled. The differences in the occurrence of malaria in the different income households (in 87% low, 69% lower-middle, 65% middle, 14% upper-middle, and 5% upper) suggest that most of these differences are related to the environmental conditions existing inside and outside their homes, such as poor drainage system, poor sullage disposal, open blocked drains, waterlogging and indoor water storage in open containers. Commitment both by the Government and local residents is needed to improve the environmental conditions and eradicate malaria. 相似文献
209.
The brightness temperatures of the Microwave sensor MSMR (Multichannel Scanning Microwave Radiometer) launched in May 1999
onboard Indian Oceansat-1 IRS-P4 are used to develop a direct retrieval method for latent heat flux by multivariate regression
technique. The MSMR measures the microwave radiances at 8 channels at frequencies of 6.6, 10.7, 18 and 21 GHz at both vertical
and horizontal polarizations. It is found that the surface LHF (Latent Heat Flux) is sensitive to all the channels. The coefficients
were derived using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data of three months: July, September,
November of 1999. The NCEP daily analyzed latent heat fluxes and brightness temperatures observed by MSMR were used to derive
the coefficients. Validity of the derived coefficients was checked within situ observations over the Indian Ocean and with NCEP analyzed LHF for global points. The LHF derived directly from the MSMR brightness
temperature (Tb) yielded an accuracy of 35 watt/m2. LHF was also computed by applying bulk formula using the geophysical parameters extracted from MSMR. In this case the errors
were higher apparently due to the errors involved in derivation of the geophysical parameters. 相似文献
210.
Spatial variability of the annual rainfall over drier regions of India is studied by examining the variations in the arid areas. A long period (1871–1984) arid area series has been prepared for the entire country, including the two broad subregions of North India and Peninsular India, using annual rainfall data from 306 well distributed stations. Following an objectively determined criterion based on rainfall amount alone, the yearly area under arid conditions is obtained by totalling areas which received annual rainfall totals less than 560 mm. The interannual variability of the arid area series is large and its distribution is highly right-skewed, demonstrating large spatial variations in the annual rainfall over India. Statistical tests do not suggest any significant long-term trend in the arid area series, but persistently low values of the arid area after 1941 are noteworthy. Implications for the study of risk analysis and assessment of drought and desertification processes are discussed. 相似文献