Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

Variation of Seismic Coda Wave Attenuation in the Garhwal Region, Northwestern Himalaya

Seismic coda wave attenuation ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} $ ) characteristics in the Garhwal region, northwestern Himalaya is studied using 113 short-period, vertical component seismic observations from local events with hypocentral distance less than 250?km and magnitude range between 1.0 to 4.0. They are located mainly in the vicinity of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Main Central Thrust (MCT), which are well-defined tectonic discontinuities in the Himalayas. Coda wave attenuation ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} $ ) is estimated using the single isotropic scattering method at central frequencies 1.5, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 16, 20, 24 and 28?Hz using several starting lapse times and coda window lengths for the analysis. Results show that the ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} $ ) values are frequency dependent in the considered frequency range, and they fit the frequency power law ( $ Q_{\text{c}}^{ - 1} \left( f \right) = Q_{0}^{ - 1} f^{ - n} $ ). The Q ₀ (Q _c at 1?Hz) estimates vary from about 50 for a 10?s lapse time and 10?s window length, to about 350 for a 60?s lapse time and 60?s window length combination. The exponent of the frequency dependence law, n ranges from 1.2 to 0.7; however, it is greater than 0.8, in general, which correlates well with the values obtained in other seismically and tectonically active and highly heterogeneous regions. The attenuation in the Garhwal region is found to be lower than the Q _c ^?1 values obtained for other seismically active regions of the world; however, it is comparable to other regions of India. The spatial variation of coda attenuation indicates that the level of heterogeneity decreases with increasing depth. The variation of coda attenuation has been estimated for different lapse time and window length combinations to observe the effect with depth and it indicates that the upper lithosphere is more active seismically as compared to the lower lithosphere and the heterogeneity decreases with increasing depth.     

Rainstorm-generated sediment yield model based on soil moisture proxies (SMP)

This study develops improved Soil Moisture Proxies (SMP) based suspended sediment yield (SMPSY) models corresponding to three antecedent moisture conditions (AMCs) (i.e., AMC-I-AMC-III) by coupling the improved initial abstraction (I_a-λ) model, the SMA procedure and the SMP concept for modelling the rainfall generated suspended sediment yield. The SMPSY models specifically incorporate a watershed storage index (S) model to accentuate the transformation from storm to storm and to avoid the sudden jumps in sediment yield computation. The workability of the SMPSY models is tested using a large dataset of rainfall and sediment yield (98 storm events) from twelve small watersheds and a comparison has been made with the existing MSY model. The goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics is evaluated in terms of the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and error indices, i.e., root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (nRMSE), standard error (SE), mean absolute error (MAE), and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR). The NSE values vary from 74.31% to 96.57% and from 75.21% to 91.78%, respectively for the SPMSY and MSY model. The NSE statistics indicate that the SMPSY model has lower uncertainty in simulating sediment yield as compared to the MSY model. The error indices are lower for the SMPSY model than the MSY model for most of the watersheds. These results show that the SMPSY model has less uncertainty and performs better than the MSY model. A sensitivity analysis of the SMPSY model shows that the parameter β is most sensitive followed by parameter S, α and A. Overall, the results show that the characterization of soil moisture variability in terms of SMPs and incorporation of improved delivery ratio and runoff coefficient relationship improves the simulation of the erosion and sediment yield generation process.     

Variation of δ18O, δD and 3H in karst springs of south Kashmir,western Himalayas (India)

Water samples were collected from cold and warm karst springs for stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δD) and ³H from SE of Kashmir valley (western Himalayas) to distinguish the sources of recharge and infer their recharge areas. The spring water samples were most depleted in heavier isotopes in May (average δ¹⁸O: ?8.87‰ and δD: ?50.3‰) and enriched in September (average δ¹⁸O: ?7.58‰ and δD: ?48.1‰). The depleted ¹⁸O and ²H of spring waters bear the signatures of winter precipitation while as the enriched ¹⁸O and ²H of spring waters bear the signature of summer rainfall. D‐excess and ³H corroborate with the stable isotope results that the spring flow in spring season (May) and autumn (September) is dominantly controlled by the melting of winter snowmelt and summer rainfall, respectively. The results showed that unlike δD, the δ¹⁸O value in the karst spring waters decreases in January suggesting δ¹⁸O shift. The spring water samples also fall above the Local Meteoric Water Line and Global Meteoric Water Line indicating the δ¹⁸O shift due to interaction of groundwater with the host carbonate rocks during its traverse. The mean elevation of the recharge areas of the springs using δ¹⁸O and δD tracers was also estimated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetic properties of some tertiary basalts from West Greenland

Summary Measurements of bulk magnetic properties, including the natural remanent magnetization (NRM), susceptibility and the Königsberger ratio, on over 250 samples of Tertiary basalts from Disko and Nûgssuaq, West Greenland are reported.The NRM intensities in basalts (geometric mean value 3.3 A/m in SI units) were on average three to four times as large as the induced magnetization intensities. The susceptibilities (geometric mean value 2.1×10^–2 SI units) were much more uniform than the NRM intensities. In the majority of samples, the NRM was predominantly of reverse (R) polarity, but samples from a few sites showed a remanence of normal (N) polarity.The NRM of both polarity classes (N, R) was very stable against alternating field (AF) demagnetization with median destructive fields of the order of 20,000–30,000 A/m (250–350 Oe), comparable to those for many stable continental and oceanic basalts. The viscous remanence intensity, as studied by storage tests on some specimens, was found to be an insignificant fraction of the original NRM, except in few cases.The low field hysteresis loops (Rayleigh loops) were studied for some specimens. A qualitative association was noted between wide hysteresis loop and relatively low AF stability, but no correlation was apparent between the loop type and the Königsberger ratio (Q _n) of a specimen.Contribution no. 6 Institute of Geophysics, University of Copenhagen.     

Velocity Distribution and the Moments of Turbulent Flow over a Sand-Gravel Mixture Bed

Water Resources - The current study performed the laboratory flume to examine the velocity distribution and the velocity moments of turbulent flow over a sand-gravel mixture bed. The 3D...     

Experimental assessment and prediction of temporal scour depth around a spur dike

Spur dikes are river training structures that have been extensively used worldwide for towards enhancing flood control and the stability of embankments and riverbanks.However,scour around spur dikes can be a major problem affecting their stability and hydraulic performance.The precise computation of temporal scour depth at spur dikes is very important for the design of economical and safe spur dikes.This study focuses on experimentally assessing the temporal variation of scour depth around a vertical wall spur dike and identifying the parameters,which mostly influence spur dike performance for a channel bed surface comprised of sand-gravel mixtures.In the current study,the authors did physical experiments in a flume based study to obtain new data,aimed at deriving a new predictive model for spur dike scour and comparing its performance to others found in the literature.It was found that the dimensionless temporal scour depth variation increases with an increase in(i)the threshold velocity ratio,(ii)the densimetric Froude number of the bed surface sediment mixture,(iii)the flow shallowness(defined as the ratio of the approach flow depth,y,to the spur dike’s transverse length,l),and(iv)the flow depth-particle size ratio.It is also concluded that the temporal scour depth variation in the sediment mixture is influenced by the non-uniformity of sediment and decreases with an increase in the non-uniformity of the sediment mixture.A new mathematical model is derived for the estimation of temporal scour depths in sand-gravel sediment mixtures.The proposed equation has been calibrated and validated with the experimental data,demonstrating a good predictive capacity for the estimation of temporal scour depth evolution.     

Suggestion for Search of Malononitrile (CH2(CN)2) in a Cosmic Object: Potential Spectral Lines

Astronomy Reports - Though accurate laboratory studies of malononitrile (CH2(CN)2), a dinitrile molecule, have been carried out from time to time, and it has large electric dipole moment $$\mu =...     

Construction and Characterization of Transportable Calibration Pads for Calibration of Portable and Airborne Gamma Ray Spectrometers in India

Characterization of the Panandhro lignite deposits from western Indian state of Gujarat, based on the geochemical and palynological evidences, has been performed to assess the floral composition, maturity and hydrocarbon potential of the sequence. Elementally, the lignites consist of moderate carbon, low hydrogen and moderate sulfur contents. The samples are characterized by high TOC contents (lignite: av. 46.43 wt.%, resin: 62.47 wt.%). The average HI values for the lignite is 136 mg HC/g TOC, and that of the associated resin is 671 mg HC/g TOC. The highest T_max is recoded in lignite (422°C) and lowest in the resin (39°C) samples. The FTIR spectrum of lignite is characterized by highly intense OH stretching peak ~3350 cm^-1, aliphatic CH_x stretching peaks between 3000-2800 cm^-1, aromatic C=O stretching and an aromatic C=C stretching. The spectrum of resin shows strongest absorption due to aliphatic CHx stretching between 2940-2915 cm^-1 and 2870-2850 cm^-1, and deformation by the medium peak between 1450 and 1650 cm^-1. The recovered palynofloral assemblage indicates the dominance of angiosperm pollen grains with maximum abundance of Arecaceae family, and subdominant pteridophytic spores. Marine influence is indicated by the presence of abundant dinoflagellate cysts. The occurrence of flora from a variety of ecological niches suggests a luxuriant diverse vegetation pattern existed in the vicinity of depositional site under humid tropical conditions. The overall characteristics of the lignite deposits point towards their ability to generate (upon maturation) hydrocarbons as they have types III–II admixed kerogen (organic matters).