Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Internal wave characteristics in the eastern Arabian Sea during summer monsoon

The time series BT profiles and surface winds and atmospheric pressure, collected in the deep waters off Ratnagiri and Karwar during summer monsoon were utilized to document the characteristics of internal waves (IW). Low-frequency (≤2, cycle per day (cpd)) IW off Ratnagiri are found to propagate at 83 cm/s with wavelengths of 45 km and wave heights upto 40 m. These parameters for high-frequency (>2 cpd) IW off Karwar correspond to 99 cm/s, 3 km and 23 m. The IW off Karwar appear to leave the station at 70° (±10°) (measured from the horizontal). The data sets were further analysed to address the harmonic composition of the IW and identify the possible sources for the observed IW fields. Power spectra of the IW indicated energy peaks at inertial (0·6 cpd) and tidal (1 and 2 cpd) frequencies off Ratnagiri and in the high-frequency band of 0·5–2·0 cycles per hour off Karwar. The coherence between the IW and wind/tide is found to be good at several frequencies within the IW spectrum. This feature probably suggests tides as a source for the IW of tidal frequencies and winds and tides as a joint source for the IW at the remaining frequencies.     

Reflection and transmission ofSH waves in an initially stressed medium consisting of a sandy layer lying over a fluid-saturated porous solid

Biot's theory is employed to study the reflection and transmission ofSH waves in a sandy layer lying over a fluid-saturated porous solid half-space. The entire medium is considered under constant initial stress. Effects of sandiness, initial stress, anelasticity and viscosity of the interstitial fluid on the partitioning of energy are studied. In the presence of initial stress the incident wave starts attenuating when incider beyond a certain angle (depending upon the amount of initial stress), even if the medium is perfectly clastic. Anelasticity of the solid layer results in the dissipation of energy during transmission. The direction of attenuation vector of incident wave affects the dissipation energy to a large extent. Effect on partitioning of energy reverse at incidence after the critical angle. A complete account of energy returmed back to the underlying half-space and that which is dissipated in the overlying layer has been discussed analytically as well as numerically.     

Diffuse X-ray background measurements in the energy range 2–18 keV

Rocket measurements, of the diffuse X-ray background in the energy range 2–18 keV, conducted from Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS), India, are presented. The estimates of the cosmic background are derived by the method which employs the Earth and its atmosphere as a shutter to intercept the celestial X-rays. The results are shown to be consistent with a power law photon spectrum.13.6 _–3.3 ^+4.3 E ^{–1.73±0.15} photons/cm²-sec-keV-ster the spectrum being much flatter than that observed at higher energies.     

Major Element, REE, and Other Trace Element Behavior in Amphibolite Weathering under Semiarid Conditions in Southern India

A body of komatiitic amphibolite, an enclave within the Archean high-grade orthogneisses in southern India, shows mild chemical weathering under semiarid conditions. Along fractures, chemical weathering has advanced (Chemical Index of Alteration &sqbl0;CIA&sqbr0;=53; CIA of fresh rock approximately 26) to the extent that secondary Mg-Fe-Al clay minerals have formed and the rock has turned brownish red, soft, and fine grained. The weathering process has resulted in the mobilization and redistribution of the so-called immobile elements Fe, Al, Ti, and REE effected by the nature of secondary mineral formation (talc vs. aluminous clay minerals) and also possibly by soil microbes. In the initial stages of secondary mineral formation, there is a small loss of Fe, Al, and REE (noticeably Eu). However, in the fracture zone as well as in the incipiently altered zone, there is significant REE enrichment, probably affected by a different precipitation mechanism. Mobilized REE may have come from a minor alteration of clinopyroxene.     

Origin of the pyrophyllite-diaspore deposits of the Bundelkhand Complex,Central India

Twenty three samples from the pyrophyllite-diaspore deposits have been investigated by x-ray diffraction and geochemical methods. The mineral assemblages belong to the K₂O-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-H₂O system. Higher concentrations of Ti, Cr and Zr in the deposits as compared with the associated granites and gneisses suggest their laterite type parentage. Existing mineral assemblages are a result of low grade metamorphism (up to about 350°C) of the primary residual deposits containing a kaolinite - diaspore - quartz assemblage.     

Rapid computation of magnetic anomalies and demagnetization effects caused by bodies of arbitrary shape

Summary With the aid of formulae derived for the field caused by a finite rectangular prism, a machine method is developed for rapid computation of magnetic anomalies due to a body of any shape. Conversely, the method could be utilised for determination of the magnetization vector from the observed anomalies. An example is given to demonstrate the applicability, accuracy and speed of the method. The method is shown to be suitable also for the evaluation of magnetic terrain effects.In addition, a new method is presented which enables high speed calculation of demagnetization effect caused by a body of arbitrary shape where the magnetization in general may be inhomogeneous. Applicability and accuracy of the method are discussed. The method is applied to study the effect of susceptibility on inhomogeneity of the induced magnetization in a cube specimen.For a body of any shape with low susceptibility, a new concept of average demagnetization factor is introduced. Average demagnetization factors so calculated for a cylindrical specimen are tabulated.

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Zusammenfassung Unter Anwendung der Formeln für das Feld eines Quaders wird eine Methode entwickelt um die durch einen Körper beliebiger Form erzeugten magnetischen Anomalien mit Hilfe eines Rechenautomaten zu berechnen. Umgekehrt kann die Methode verwendet werden, um aus den beobachteten Anomalien den Magnetisierungsvektor zu bestimmen. An einem Beispiel wird die Anwendbarkeit, die Genauigkeit und die Schnelligkeit der Methode erläutert. Die Methode kann auch für die Berechnung von magnetischen Terraineffekten verwendet werden.Zudem wird eine neue Methode dargelegt, welche eine rasche Berechnung des Entmagnetisierungseffektes eines Körpers beliebiger Gestalt und inhomogener Magnetisierung ermöglicht. Anwendbarkeit und Genauigkeit der Methode werden besprochen. Die Methode wurde verwendet, um den Einfluss der Suszeptibilität auf die Inhomogenität der induzierten Magnetisierung in einem Würfel zu untersuchen.Für Körper beliebiger Form mit kleiner Suszeptibilität wls neuer Begriff der mittlere Entmagnetisierungsfaktor eingeführt. Mittlere Entmagnetisierungsfaktoren für eine zylindrische Probe werden tabelliert.

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Part I of the dissertation Theretical study of the magnetic attraction due to rock bodies and experimental investigation of the stability of rock magnetism submitted to the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, for the degree of Doctor of Natural Sciences.     

Velocity of ground water percolation at Indaram, Godavari sub-basin, India

We present values of velocity of ground water percolation (Vg) over large depth intervals, varying from shallow to deeper depths in Indaram area of Godavari sub-basin. The velocities have been estimated using available measured geothermal data. Sub-surface temperatures were measured in seven boreholes. Terrestrial heat flow values are calculated using temperature data and measured values of thermal conductivity of core samples. The results show that Vg is ～3.4 ×10^?7 cm /sec in the top layers (70–150 m) and decreases to ～0.04×10^?7 cm/sec in the deeper levels around 350 m depth and becomes negligibly small thereafter, thereby, indicating that the overall permeability of the sub-surface layers, due to the occurrence of successions of permeable, semi-permeable layers gets reduced to more or less zero at depths around 350 m. The value of Thermal Peclet Number, which is the ratio of the heat transfer through convection to that through conduction, naturally becomes negligible around this depth in the area. The observed consistency of the magnitude of heat flow through various deep sections is a clear indicator that water percolation is practically reduced to zero at depths around 320–400 m and that conduction is the dominant mechanism of heat transfer below the inferred depth section, while the upper layers are dominated by recharge at various depths by near surface water from streams at Indaram.