Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for gridded bias removal in surface temperature forecasts

All numerical weather prediction (NWP) models inherently have substantial biases, especially in the forecast of near-surface weather variables. Statistical methods can be used to remove the systematic error based on historical bias data at observation stations. However, many end users of weather forecasts need bias corrected forecasts at locations that scarcely have any historical bias data. To circumvent this limitation, the bias of surface temperature forecasts on a regular grid covering Iran is removed, by using the information available at observation stations in the vicinity of any given grid point. To this end, the running mean error method is first used to correct the forecasts at observation stations, then four interpolation methods including inverse distance squared weighting with constant lapse rate (IDSW-CLR), Kriging with constant lapse rate (Kriging-CLR), gradient inverse distance squared with linear lapse rate (GIDS-LR), and gradient inverse distance squared with lapse rate determined by classification and regression tree (GIDS-CART), are employed to interpolate the bias corrected forecasts at neighboring observation stations to any given location. The results show that all four interpolation methods used do reduce the model error significantly, but Kriging-CLR has better performance than the other methods. For Kriging-CLR, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were decreased by 26% and 29%, respectively, as compared to the raw forecasts. It is found also, that after applying any of the proposed methods, unlike the raw forecasts, the bias corrected forecasts do not show spatial or temporal dependency.     

Investigation of Post-seismic and Inter-seismic Displacement Field Following 2003 Bam Earthquake in Iran Based on PS-InSAR Technique

In this paper, Bam post-seismic deformations during 7 years after earthquake have been extracted using persistent scatterer interferometry technique. The results illustrate that the maximum amount of uplift and subsidence displacements along line of sight direction during 2004–2010 after the earthquake are 4.5 ± 0.5 and ? 4.3 ± 0.5 cm, respectively. The results of displacement field indicate that an exponential function with the relaxation time of 2.5 years can be fitted to the corresponding process. The estimated inter-seismic slip value by the inversion of SAR line-of-sight data after relaxation time is 6.35 ± 0.05 mm. Mechanical time dependent processes in the post-seismic relaxation typically rely on models of poroelastic rebound, afterslip fault dilatancy recovery and viscoelastic relaxation to explain surface displacements field. The time series are inverted for the afterslip distribution on an extension of the co-seismic rupture. The estimated post-seismic slip value is 20.45 ± 0.38 cm. Most of the post-seismic displacement field can be explained in terms of fault slip. The results of post-seismic motion modeling indicate that the poroelastic rebound can be detected using the line-of-sight data and the effect of viscoelastic relaxation in post-seismic displacement is negligible.     

Avifaunal changes in the Indian Thar Desert

The Indian Thar Desert is one of the smallest and most densely populated deserts of the world but due to its geographical location it has high avian and plant diversity. Nearly 300 bird species have been identified. A 649-km long irrigation canal, the Indira Gandhi Nahar Project (IGNP), is changing the ecology of the Thar by bringing water to arid areas. Beside the main canal, nearly 8000 km of distribution channels have been built. A massive afforestation scheme along the canal has attracted many new animal and bird species. Expansion of agriculture, overgrazing by livestock, change in cropping pattern, development of seepage wetlands and introduction of exotic plants have greatly affected desert birds such as the endangered Great Indian BustardArdoetis nigriceps, the migratory Houbara BustardChlamydotis undulataand the endemic White-browed BushchatSaxicola macrorhyncha, while some species such as Common CraneGrus grusand Demoiselle CraneGrus virgoare spreading along the canal. This paper discusses the change brought about in the birdlife of the Thar by the development of IGNP and recommends urgent conservation measures.     

Wave dispersion in high‐rise buildings due to soil–structure interaction

Nonparametric techniques for estimation of wave dispersion in buildings by seismic interferometry are applied to a simple model of a soil–structure interaction (SSI) system with coupled horizontal and rocking response. The system consists of a viscously damped shear beam, representing a building, on a rigid foundation embedded in a half‐space. The analysis shows that (i) wave propagation through the system is dispersive. The dispersion is characterized by lower phase velocity (softening) in the band containing the fundamental system mode of vibration, and little change in the higher frequency bands, relative to the building shear wave velocity. This mirrors its well‐known effect on the frequencies of vibration, i.e. reduction for the fundamental mode and no significant change for the higher modes of vibration, in agreement with the duality of the wave and vibrational nature of structural response. Nevertheless, the phase velocity identified from broader band impulse response functions is very close to the superstructure shear wave velocity, as found by an earlier study of the same model. The analysis reveals that (ii) the reason for this apparent paradox is that the latter estimates are biased towards the higher values, representative of the higher frequencies in the band, where the response is less affected by SSI. It is also discussed that (iii) bending flexibility and soil flexibility produce similar effects on the phase velocities and frequencies of vibration of a building. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.