A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia

The most direct method of design flood estimation is at-site flood frequency analysis, which relies on a relatively long period of recorded streamflow data at a given site. Selection of an appropriate probability distribution and associated parameter estimation procedure is of prime importance in at-site flood frequency analysis. The choice of the probability distribution for a given application is generally made arbitrarily as there is no sound physical basis to justify the selection. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the suitability of as many as fifteen different probability distributions and three parameter estimation methods based on a large Australian annual maximum flood data set. A total of four goodness-of-fit tests are adopted, i.e., the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, Anderson–Darling test, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, to identify the best-fit probability distributions. Furthermore, the L-moments ratio diagram is used to make a visual assessment of the alternative distributions. It has been found that a single distribution cannot be specified as the best-fit distribution for all the Australian states as it was recommended in the Australian rainfall and runoff 1987. The log-Pearson 3, generalized extreme value, and generalized Pareto distributions have been identified as the top three best-fit distributions. It is thus recommended that these three distributions should be compared as a minimum in practical applications when making the final selection of the best-fit probability distribution in a given application in Australia.     

Summer monsoon rainfall scenario over Bangladesh using a high-resolution AGCM

Summer monsoon rainfall was simulated by a global 20 km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), focusing on the changes in the summer monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. Calibration and validation of AGCM were performed over Bangladesh for generating summer monsoon rainfall scenarios. The model-produced summer monsoon rainfall was calibrated with a ground-based observational data in Bangladesh during the period 1979–2003. The TRMM 3B43 V6 data are also used for understanding the model performance. The AGCM output obtained through validation process made it confident to be used for near future and future summer monsoon rainfall projection in Bangladesh. In the present-day (1979–2003) climate simulations, the high-resolution AGCM produces the summer monsoon rainfall better as a spatial distribution over SAARC region in comparison with TRMM but magnitude may be different. Summer monsoon rainfall projection for Bangladesh was experimentally obtained for near future and future during the period 2015–2034 and 2075–2099, respectively. This work reveals that summer monsoon rainfall simulated by a high-resolution AGCM is not directly applicable to application purpose. However, acceptable performance was obtained in estimating summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh after calibration and validation. This study predicts that in near future, summer monsoon rainfall on an average may decrease about ?0.5 % during the period 2015–2034 and future summer monsoon rainfall may increase about 0.4 % during the period 2075–2099.     

Geochemical investigation of selected elements in coastal and riverine sediments from Ube, Kasado, and Suo-Oshima Bays in the western Seto Inland Sea, Southwest Japan

This paper presents the geochemical study of sediments along Ube, Suo-Oshima, and Kasado Bays in the Seto Inland Sea of Japan. We examined the distribution and abundances of 13 elements (As, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, Sr, Ca, Fe, Ti, P, Mn, and total S) in 40 coastal and river sediment samples, to evaluate the factors controlling their abundances, possible sources, and environmental implications. Average concentrations of As, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Cr at Ube were 12, 26, 86, 16, 43, and 92?mg/kg, 6, 25, 31, 8, 9, and 29?mg/kg at Kasado, and 5, 20, 28, 3, 5, and 18?mg/kg at Suo-Oshima, respectively. Average As, Pb, Zn, and Cr concentrations at Ube were comparable or enriched relative to those of the upper continental crust and Japan upper crust, whereas most major elements, Cu, and Ni were depleted at Kasado and Suo-Oshima. Enrichment factor values show low to moderate enrichment of Zn, Ni, and Cr, whereas As and Pb show significant contamination at some sites, suggesting contributions from anthropogenic sources. Anthropogenic contributions of most metals mainly originate from natural processes; however, As and Pb ranges of 73–79 and 66–81?%, respectively, confirm their anthropogenic contribution. Factor analysis and correlation matrices suggest that elevated metal concentrations at Ube, especially in samples located in the river basin, may be controlled by Fe–Mn oxy-hydroxides. Deposition of metals at Kasado and Suo-Oshima might be controlled by non-ferrous metal (i.e., aluminosilicates), sediment grain size, or source rock composition (granite and gneiss).     

Sea Level Changes Along Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

Interannual variations of sea level along the Bangladesh coast are quite pronounced and often dominate the long-term sea level trends that are taking place. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induced variation is an important component of interannual mode of variations. The present article deals with the relationship between the sea level variations along the Bangladesh coast and the Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The mean tide level data of monsoon season (June to September) pertaining to Hiron Point (in Sundarbans) and Char Changa (on the mouth of Meghna River) have been analyzed and correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The annual variation of mean tide level in the coastal areas of Bangladesh reveals that the tide level reaches its peak during the monsoon season. The maximum tide level during the calendar year is recorded in August. Thus, it is not surprising that the inundation of the coastal belt of Bangladesh due to the floods is most common during the summer monsoon season, especially from July to September. Therefore, the sea level variations during the monsoon are of paramount importance to Bangladesh. The results of the present study show that both at Hiron Point and Char Changa there is a substantial difference between the mean tide level during the El Niño and La Niña monsoons. The mean tide level at Hiron Point is higher by about 5 cm during August of La Niña years as compared to that during the El Niño years. The difference at Char Changa, which is located at the mouth of Meghna River, is much higher. This is probably due to the increased fresh water discharge into the Meghna River during La Niña years. Thus at the time of crossing of a monsoon depression, the chances of widespread inundation are higher during a La Nin~a year as compared to that during an El Niño year. The Correlation Coefficients (CCs) between Mean Tide Levels (MTLs) at Hiron Point and Char Changa and the SOI during September (at the end of monsoon) are +0.33 and +0.39 respectively. These CCs are statistically significant at 90% and 95% levels, respectively. These results may find applications in the preparedness programs for combating sea level associated disasters in Bangladesh.     

On the possible origin of X-rays in long laboratory sparks

In this paper, based on theoretical estimation of the achievable electric fields during the physical development process of a long spark under different conditions, we show that the encounter of negative and positive streamer fronts just before the final breakdown is one scenario, under which the observed X-ray bursts in long sparks is highly possible. Our calculations show that for example in an 80 cm long rod–sphere air gap at atmospheric pressure with negative lightning impulse breakdown voltage of about 925 kV, electrons are accelerated to values in the range of 100–300 keV during the encounter. Subsequently, these electrons gain more energy moving through the potential gradient of the positive streamer region. The total gain of energy by electrons may reach 300–500 keV. The results also show that negative discharges can produce more energetic electrons than positive. If the suggested mechanism of X-ray production in long sparks is correct, then the X-ray burst may consist of several pulses closely spaced in time. Time resolved photography in simultaneous measurement of X-rays would be able to confirm this prediction.     

Inversion of Gravity Data for Imaging of a Sediment-basement Interface: A Case Study in the Northwestern Part of Bangladesh

Gravity data collected by the Geological Survey of Bangladesh are processed and interpreted for imaging of a sediment-basement interface over the northwestern part of Bangladesh. The observed gravity data are processed for discriminating gravitational fields contributed subtly from the shallow basement topographic feature with the twelve nodal piecewise cubic polynomial–based finite–element approach. In spectral analysis, the presence of a widely spread shallow basement feature has been detected and interpretation of gravity data using a two-dimensional gravity inversion technique indicates that its depth ranges from 0.041 km to 0.570 km relative to ground surface. In the northern part of the study area, the inferred basement configuration shows a general depression of the basement in the Takurgaon-Panchagar and Lalmonirhat districts and reaches a maximum depth of about 0.570 km. In the Nilphamari district and its southwestern part, the basement occurs at the most shallow depth due to its upliftment. However, the estimated sediment-basement interface depths are compared with the borehole and other geophysical interpretative information and are found to be consistent.     

Assessment of Land use/land cover Change in the North-West District of Delhi Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

Land is one of the prime natural resources. A city grows not only by population but also by changes in spatial dimensions. Urban population growth and urban sprawl induced land use changes and land transformation. The land transformation is a natural process and cannot be stopped but it can be regulated. Many geographical changes at the urban periphery are associated with the transfer of land from rural to urban purpose. There is an urgent need for fast growing areas like Delhi, which can be easily done by high-resolution remote sensing data. Land use/land cover of North West of Delhi has been analyzed for the time period of 1972?C2003. The remote sensing data used in study is Aster image of 2003 with a spatial resolution of 15?m and other data of 1972 Survey of India (SOI) toposheet at the scale of 1:50,000. Supervised digital classification using maximum likelihood classifier was applied for preparing land use/land cover. A change detection model was applied in ERDAS Imagine to find out the land use/land cover during 1972 to 2003. Eight land use classes was identified but main dominated classes were built up and agricultural land. A drastic change has been recorded during 30 years of time i. e. (1972-2003). In 1972, 92.06% of the land was under agricultural practice, which reduced to 64.71% in 2003. This shows 27.35% decrease in agricultural land in three decades. On the other hand built up area was 6.31% in 1972, which increased to 34% in 2003. One of the main cause of this land use change is the population growth due to the migration in the district from small cities and rural areas of Delhi.     

Post-disaster recovery in the cyclone Aila affected coastline of Bangladesh: women’s role,challenges and opportunities

Natural Hazards - The present study deals with the gender aspects of water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) situation in post-cyclone Aila period in Bangladesh. Data were collected using...     

Seismo-stratigraphic and structural interpretation of seismic data of Titas gas field,Bengal basin,Bangladesh

In the present study, seismic interpretation has been carried out over Titas structure of Bengal basin, Bangladesh to figure out its seismo-stratigraphic and structural behavior. Seven well marked reflecting horizons (R-01 to R-07) have been identified within the Neogene sedimentary sequences using 18 seismic sections and well log data. A new seismic stratigraphy of Neogene sequences has been proposed for the Titas structure ruling out the traditional lithostratigraphy. The studied structure has been divided into 3 megasequences (MS1, MS2 and MS3). Reflector R-01 and R-03 represent the tops of the megasequence 2 (MS2) and megasequence 1 (MS1) respectively. These well marked reflectors are correlated with the top of the traditional litho-groups called Tipam and Surma. Reflectors R-02 and R-04 represent acoustic impedance boundaries within MS2 and MS1 due to lithological gradation. However, R-02 and R-04 are not considered as sequence/ formation boundaries because geologically these are not well defined. Reflectors R-05, R-06 and R-07 represent top of the gasbearing zones A, B and C that belongs to MS1. All these interfaces or reflectors are anti-form with a central long crestal zone. It forms a north-south trending semi-domal sub-surface anticlinal structure having a semi-dome shaped closure. The structure is asymmetric with steeper eastern flank and gentler western flank. The crestal region is essentially plain with discontinuous reflection. The semidomal nature of the anticline is in contrast to the neighboring narrow anticlines. Structural pattern suggests its development in relation to the NE-SW trending stress field due to convergence of Indian plate with Burmese plate. Structures of the shallower and deeper reflectors are formed at different phases of structural development.     

Evaluation of the effect of water management interventions on water level of Gaza coastal aquifer

Gaza coastal aquifer (GCA) is the most precious natural source where it is the only source of water for different uses. Groundwater crisis in Gaza includes two major folds: shortage of water supply and contamination. The extraction of groundwater currently exceeds the aquifer recharge rate. As a result, the groundwater level is falling continuously leading severely deterioration of GCA. The main objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the current and proposed water resources management plans and their effect on the water level of GCA. In this respect, the available quantities of rainfall that could be harvested and infiltrated from different types of land-use based on existing and planned situations are studied using GIS tool and numerical models for GCA using V-MODFLOW environment for simulating four scenarios: (i) existing management practice (no action scenario), (ii) proposed Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) stormwater infiltration plan, (iii) proposed Gaza Emergency Technical Assistance Program (GETAP) interventions, and (iv) combination between second and third scenarios. The management scenarios were tested with the calibrated flow model for the target period between 2016 and 2040. The simulation results of existing management practice scenario show that there are several depression zones in Gaza Strip; in southern part from ??18 to ??24 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, in the northern part from ??7 to ??12 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, and in the middle regions experienced a small decline in groundwater level. The simulation results of proposed PWA scenario indicate similar depression zones as per first scenario but with good enhancement of water level, ??17 to ??18 m MSL in the southern part and ??3 to ??6 m MSL in the northern part in 2020 and 2040, respectively. The simulation results of GETAP intervention scenario show a positive impact on groundwater level. The results of fourth scenario show good enhancement of water level, in which the water level in the northern part ranges from +?3 to +?6 m MSL in 2020 and 2040, while in the south part ranges from ??15 to +?4 MSL in 2020 and 2040.