Interannual variation of Gulf Stream heat transport in a high-resolution model forced by reanalysis data

The variability present in a 1/6th degree Atlantic ocean simulation forced by analysed wind stress and heat flux over a 20-year period is investigated by means of heat transport diagnostics. A section is defined which follows the Gulf Stream and its seaward extension, and transport of heat across this section is analysed to reveal the physical mechanisms responsible for intergyre heat exchanges on a variety of time scales. Heat transport across another section that crosses the Gulf Stream is also diagnosed to reveal the temporal behaviour of the gyre circulation. The Ekman response to wind stress variations accounts for the annual cycle and much of the interannual variability in both measures. For the intergyre heat transports, cancellation by transient-mean flow terms leads to a very weak annual cycle. Transient eddies account for approximately half the total intergyre transport of 0.7 Petawatts. They also account for a significant fraction of the interannual variability, but separate experiments with repeated-annual-cycle forcing indicate that the transient eddy component of the heat transport variability is internally generated. Links between the intergyre transport, the wind-driven gyre circulation, the surface heat budget and the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation are discussed.     

Possibilities to detect trends in spectral UV irradiance

Summary It is investigated how long-term UV trends can be assessed by analysing the longest time series of measured spectral UV irradiance in Europe, which have been started in the early 1990s in Thessaloniki, Greece and Sodankylä, Finland. It can be concluded that both time series do not yet show an unambiguous yearly trend in UV irradiance. The regression lines show no uniform behaviour and vary irregularly in strength and from one solar zenith angle to the next if all sky conditions are analysed. It is emphasised that these findings do not disagree with previous studies, that significant changes in UV irradiance have been observed over Europe especially in spring.Our study introduces a new method to estimate the required time series length for trend detection using the measured time series in combination with model calculations. At Sodankylä, a reduction of the total ozone column of –5.7% per decade has been observed from 1979 to 1998. A positive UV trend due to such conditions may be detected after 12 years at the earliest. For Thessalonki, a decrease in total ozone of –4.5% per decade has been observed. A corresponding increase of UV irradiance should be detectable after 15 years. It should be noted that a constant ozone trend over the whole period had to be assumed for this analysis.Since 1990 there has been a considerable variability of total ozone, but no steady decrease could be observed. Consequently, no general UV increase could be expected due to ozone changes. Even if there was a constant ozone trend over that period it is shown that even the longest European time series of UV irradiance are still too short to show distinct trends. However, this does not imply that no changes have occurred, it only shows that the large natural variability of UV irradiance has so far hindered the identification of unambiguous trends. The only way to find significant and consistent UV trends is the continuation of high-quality long-term measurements of spectral UV irradiance.     

Temperature fluctuation beats as a reason for the anomalously hot summer of 2010 in the European part of Russia

Presented are the explanations of reasons for the anomalous heat in summer of 2010 in the central area of the European part of Russia. It is demonstrated that this event occurred due to the beating of the solar annual (365 days) and lunar annual (355 days) fluctuations of air temperature. To substantiate this conclusion, the data are given on the synchronization of changes in atmospheric processes with the tidal variations of the Earth??s rotation velocity and on the nature of lunar cycles. Illustrated are the evidences of their existence in air temperature fluctuations. Revealed is the sequence of anomalously hot summer seasons in 1901, 1936 (1938), 1972, and 2010 corroborating the existence of the 35-year period of air temperature beats. Proposed is a mechanism of the impact of luni-solar tides on the air temperature based on the interaction between the gravitational luni-solar tides and the radiation conditions in the atmosphere (caused by the cloudiness amount variations).     

Stochastic simulations of the Madden�CJulian oscillation activity

The Madden?CJulian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do interannual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948?C2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880?C2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948?C1972 (3.4?events?year^?1) and two regimes of high activity in 1973?C1989 (3.9 events) and 1990?C2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880?C1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896?C1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918?C1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880?C1895), 0.076 (1896?C1917), 0.197 (1918?C1947) and 0.193 (1948?C1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973?C1989) and 0.510 (1990?C2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.     

Institutional Adaptation of Water Resource Infrastructures to Climate Change in Eastern Ontario

Institutional barriers and bridges to local climate change impacts adaptation affecting small rural municipalities and Conservation Authorities (CAs are watershed agencies) in Eastern Ontario (Canada) are examined, and elements of a community-based adaptation strategy related to water infrastructures are proposed as a case-study in community adaptation to climate change. No general water scarcity is expected for the region even under unusually dry weather scenarios. Localized quantity and quality problems are likely to occur especially in groundwater recharge areas. Some existing institutions can be relied on by municipalities to build an effective adaptation strategy based on a watershed/region perspective, on their credibility, and on their expertise. Windows of opportunity or framing issues are offered at the provincial level, the most relevant one in a federal state, by municipal emergency plan requirements and pending watershed source water protection legislation. Voluntary and soon to be mandated climate change mitigation programs at the federal level are other ones.     

Diffusion from a point source in an urban atmosphere

Summary In the present paper, a model for the diffusion of material from a point source in an urban atmosphere is incorporated. The plume is assumed to have a well-defined edge at which the concentration falls to zero. The vertical wind shear is estimated using logarithmic law, by employing most of the available techniques of stability categories. The concentrations estimated from the model were compared favorably with the field observations of other investigators.     

AN HISTORICAL APPROACH TO MOBILITY RESEARCH *

Most existing work on residential mobility has assumed that the household relocation decision is an intrinsically significant object of inquiry. In contrast, we argue that mobility derives its significance primarily from the particular historical and locational contexts within which it occurs. We suggest, therefore, that future mobility research should be directed away from the development of a theory of mobility per se and toward a more explicit articulation of mobility studies to existing theories of urbanization and social change.