Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical Origins,Recent Interpretations

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for “dangerous anthropogenic interference” and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 ^∘C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO₂ equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

PNNLs Agriculture and Land Use is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-yr time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agricultural productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.     

Strongly peraluminous granites of Mesozoic in Eastern Nanling Range,southern China: Petrogenesis and implications for tectonics

The strongly peraluminous granites (SPGs) of Eastern Nanling Range (ENR) are a characteristic of all bearing highly aluminous minerals, such as muscovite±AI-rich biotite±tourmaline±garnet, and lack of cordierite. In respect of petrography, geochemistry, Nd isotope, and single grain zircon U-Pb dating, the representative granite bodies of them are studied. The research shows that these granites were emplaced in two stages, namely 228-225 Ma BP and J2-3 159-156 Ma BP, belonging to Indosinian and early Yanshanian periods, respectively, and they have low εNd(t) values (-10.6--11.1), high A/CNK, Rb/Sr ratios and tDM values (1887-1817 Ma), and REE's tetrad effect (TE1,3=1.13-1.34). In comparison with related geology, petrology and chronology of granites in adjacent regions, it is suggested that Indosinian SPGs of ENR formed in the circumstance of post-collisional extension 20 Ma after the major collision of Indosinian Movement (258-243 Ma BP) in Indo-China Peninsula, and early Yanshanian SPGs formed in the     

Temporal and spatial rupture process of the great Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake of November 14, 2001 from the GDSN long period waveform data

The temporal and spatial rupture process of the 14 November 2001 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake (KMPE) is obtained by inverting the high signal-to-noise-ratio P-waveform data of vertical components of 20 stations with epicentral distances less than 90°, which are of Global Digital Seismogragh Network (GDSN). The inverted results indicate that the KMPE consists of 3 sub-events. The rupture of the first sub-event initiated at the instrumental epicenter (35.97°N, 90.59°E) and then propagated both westwards and eastwards, extending 140 km westwards at the speed of 4.0 km/s and 80 km eastwards at the speed of 2.2 km/s, which appeared to be an asymmetrical bilateral rupture dominantly from east to west. This sub-event formed a 220-km-long fault. Fifty-two seconds after initiation of the first sub-event, at which time the first sub-event was not over but in its healing phase, the rupture of the second sub-event initiated 220 km west of the epicenter and propagated both westwards and eastwards, extending 50     

Clay mineral records of East Asian monsoon evolution during late Quaternary in the southern South China Sea

High-resolution clay mineral records combined with oxygen isotopic stratigraphy over the past 190 ka during late Quaternary from core MD01-2393 off the Mekong River in the southern South China Sea are reported to reconstruct a history of East Asian monsoon evolution. The dominating clay mineral components indicate a strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with high glacial illite, chlorite, and kaolinite contents and high interglacial smectites content. The provenance analysis indicates the direct input of clay minerals via the Mekong River drainage basin. Illite and chlorite derived mainly from the upper reach of the Mekong River, where physical erosion of meta-sedimentary rocks is dominant. Kaolinite derived mainly from active erosion of inhered clays from reworked sediments in the middle reaches. Smectites originated mainly through bisiallitic soils in the middle to lower reaches of the Mekong River. The smectites/(illite+chlorite) and smectites/kaolinite ratios are determined as mineralogical indicato     

S-wave velocity and Poisson''''s ratio structure of crust in Yunnan and its implication

Receiver function of body wave under the 23 stations in Yunnan was extracted from 3-component broadband digital recording of teleseismic event. Thus, the S-wave velocity structure and distribution characteristics of Poisson's ratio in crust of Yunnan are obtained by inversion. The results show that the crustal thickness is gradually thinned from north to south. The crustal thickness in Zhongdian of northwest reaches as many as 62.0 km and the one in Jinghong of further south end is only 30.2 km. What should be especially noted is that there exists a Moho upheaval running in NS in the Chuxiong region and a Moho concave is generally parallel to it in Dongchuan. In addition, there exists an obvious transversal inhomogeneity for the S-wave velocity structure in upper mantle and crust in the Yunnan region. The low velocity layer exists not only in 10.0-15.0 km in upper crust in some regions, but also in 30.0-40.0 km in lower crust. Generally, the Poisson's ratio is on the high side, however it has a better co     

Climatological distribution of lightning density observed by satellites in China and its circumjacent regions

The 0.5°×0.5°grid resolution distribution of lightning density in China and its circumjacent regions have been analyzed by using the satellite-borne OTD (Apr 1995-Mar 2000) and LIS (Dec 1997-Mar 2003) databases. It is shown that: (i) Firstly, the variability of the lightning density (LD) is particularly pronounced over the different subareas, 9 times greater over the south than the north side of Himalayas Mountains, 2.5 times greater over the eastern than the western area of China. While the maximum and minimum LD are respectively 31.4fl/km2/a (in Guangzhou region) and less than 0.2fl/km2/a (in the desert of western China). Secondly, the LD of China's continent regularly varies with latitude and distance off coast, which is consistent with annual mean precipitation in varying trend. In conclusion, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the China's three-step staircase topography and the latitude are three important factors affecting macro-scale characteristics of the LD distribution, (ii) The regional differences     

Thresholds of geographic environmental elements in sediment yield of drainage basins

Threshold of environmental elements in drainage basin sediment yield refers to, under effect of climate, underlying surface and human activity, a turning point of abrupt changes in drainage sediment yield related to environmental element characteristics. Previous studies on threshold of sediment yield of relevant drainage basins were mainly concentrated on impact of natural zones with a few researches on impact of other environmental elements. Particularly studies on compound environmental element threshold in drainage basin sediment yield remain blank today. Studies indicate that sediment yield in drainage basins is affected by compound interactions and complex actions. Based on single element analysis, the present paper gives quantitatively compound threshold of environmental elements affecting sediment yield of the drainage basin between Hekouzhen and Tongguan in the middle Yellow River by the method of multi-variant, polynomial formula regression analysis.     

Heating status of the Tibetan Plateau from April to June and rainfall and atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia in midsummer

Based on the 1958-1999 monthly averaged reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the rainfall data of 160 Chinese surface stations, the relationship between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia (EA) in July and the sensible heating (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from April to June (AMJ) is investigated by using the rotational experimental orthogonal function (REOF) method. The results show that the TP is an isolated heating source in this period. The lagged correlation analysis between the first rotational principal component (RPC) of SH over the TP in May and rainfall of EA in July demonstrates that strong SH over the TP before July leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over the TP, the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and the regions south and southeast of the TP, and the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but less rainfall anomaly over the regions north, northeas     

An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

Typhoon disaster is one of the most influentialnatural disasters. The strong storm surge of Bangla-desh cyclone, which happened in November 1970,resulted in 300000 deaths. Asia and the western Pa-cific can be regarded as an area where is affected mostseverely by the disasters of tropical storms[1]. Themost important thing is to improve the accuracy oftyphoon tracks prediction internationally. Lande-sea,C.[2] pointed out that for a successful forecast oftropic cyclone (TC) tracks, it is not …