Agriculture and Tornadoes on the Canadian Prairies: potential impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on Summer Severe Weather

On the Canadian Prairies, a significantportion of the transpiration is derived from a ratherhomogenous agro-ecosystem comprised of springwheat and other annual C₃ field crops with similar water use patterns. The seasonal pattern oftranspiration is determined, to alarge extent, by crop phenology. By increasing thespecific humidity of the atmospheric boundarylayer, regional transpiration has a large positive effect on themagnitude of the potential energy available fordeep convection and thus, on the likelihood of occurrence andintensity of severe thunderstorms. Acomparison of the average wheat phenologycurve, for a representative aridgrassland and for a representativetransitional grassland site, with theaverage number of tornado days per week inthe entire eco-climatic zone demonstrated that the twoare linked. With increasing atmospheric concentrations ofCO₂, the physiological response of C₃ cropsmight lower transpiration rates and climate warming may advance cropseeding dates. The former would reduce the specifichumidity of the convective boundary layer, and thereby, reducethe potential energy available for deep convection.Thus, future summer severe weather seasons might, on average,be more benign and occur earlier in the seasonthan at present. This conclusion is far from certain as there are amultitude of complex feedback mechanisms. What ismore certain is that global circulation models (GCMs) mustadequately handle the inter-action between theatmosphere and the agro-ecosystem of the Canadian Prairies beforethey can correctly simulate the thermodynamic propertiesof the convective boundary layer and determine the impactof increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ onfuture summer severe weather.     

Environmental Justice in Hamburg,Germany

This environmental justice study investigates whether disempowered segments of the population in Hamburg, Germany, namely, foreigners and the poor, reside disproportionately in neighborhoods that contain, have higher concentrations of, and are in closer proximity to facilities releasing toxic chemicals into the environment. Methods include choropleth mapping; comparisons of means, correlation, and ordinary least squares (OLS); and spatial econometric regression. The results provide evidence that toxic release facilities are disproportionately located within, and closer to, neighborhoods with comparatively higher proportions of foreigners and the poor as compared to those with higher proportions of German citizens and the non-poor. We speculate that the causes of this pattern of environmental inequity are similar to the causes scholars have proposed for comparable patterns observed in many U.S. cities, where marginalized immigrant or minority groups subject to discrimination in housing and employment have sought low-wage labor in industrial areas, whereas wealthier German citizens have settled in environmentally safer parts of the city.     

Numerical simulation of cold easterly circulations over the Canadian Western Plains using a mesoscale boundary-layer model

Arctic outbreaks over the Canadian Western Plains during the late spring period frequently take the form of a cold east-northeasterly flow over a warmer, sloping surface. A mesoscale numerical model is developed in an attempt to simulate such circulations. Following Lavoie (1972) the atmospheric structure of the cold air mass is represented by three layers: a constant flux layer in contact with the earth's surface, a well-mixed planetary boundary layer capped by an inversion, and a deep stratum of overlying stable air. Averaging the set of governing primitive equations through the depth of the mixed layer yields predictive equations for the horizontal wind components, potential temperature, specific humidity, and the height of the inversion. Time-dependent calculations are limited to this layer by parameterizing the interactions between the mixed layer and both the underlying and overlying layers. Precipitation from limited convective clouds, and latent heat within the layer are included in terms of mesoscale variables.A 47.6-km by 47.6-km grid mesh of 1369 points covering the Canadian Prairie Provinces is used to represent the variables. The governing equations are solved numerically with terrain influences, surface roughness, temperature variations, and moisture fluxes allowed to perturb the mixed layer from its initial conditions until resultant mesoscale boundary-layer weather patterns evolve.The mean spring topographic precipitation pattern is successfully reproduced by the simulated late spring upslope flow with limited convective precipitation. Mesoscale planetary boundary-layer weather patterns appear to exert a dominant control over the location and intensity of perturbations in the spring precipitation pattern. The elimination of surface heating significantly reduces the area and intensity of precipitation. A case study based on observed initial conditions showed that the model could reproduce a persistent limited convective precipitation pattern maintained by upslope flow and that a low-level trough exerts a marked influence on the location and the intensity of the precipitation.     

Linking the Atmospheric Boundary Layer to the Amundsen Gulf Sea-Ice Cover: A Mesoscale to Synoptic-Scale Perspective from Winter to Summer 2008

The link between the sea-ice cover of the Amundsen Gulf and the overlying atmospheric boundary layer was explored on a weekly timestep from winter to summer 2008. The total sea-ice cover was around 97% (3% leads) from 7 January to 21 April. From 28 April to 12 May, the total sea-ice cover approached 100%. From May 19, the total sea-ice declined rapidly to its July minimum of 3%. During the winter, a turbulent internal boundary layer (IBL), attributed to the upward flux of sensible heat (mean = 46 W m⁻²), was present in most of the mean daily potential temperature profiles. The mean latent heat flux was 1.7 Wm⁻². A turbulent IBL was also present in most of the mean daily profiles for early spring. Surface fluxes were not estimated. During late spring and early summer, a stable IBL, attributed to the downward flux of sensible heat (mean = −19 W m⁻²), was present in most of the potential temperature profiles. Both downward and upward fluxes of latent heat occurred in this period (means = −3.3 and 1.1 W m⁻²). The sensible heat flux estimates are consistent with the results of others; however, the latent heat flux estimates may be too small due to condensation/deposition within the IBL. The unconsolidated nature of the pack ice in the Amundsen Gulf, and the low sea-surface temperatures following break-up, were critical factors controlling the presence and type of IBL.     

All-Sky Surface Radiation and Clear-Sky Surface Energy Budgets: Summer to Freeze-Up in the Western Maritime Arctic

The 2009 ArcticNet expedition was a field campaign in the Amundsen Gulf–eastern Beaufort Sea region from mid-July to the beginning of November aboard the CCGS Amundsen that provided an opportunity to describe the all-sky surface radiation and the clear-sky surface energy budgets from summer to freeze-up in the data sparse western maritime Arctic. Because the fractional area of open water was generally larger than the fractional area of ice floes, the net radiation at the water surface controlled the radiation budget. Because the water albedo is much less than the albedo of the ice floes, the extent and duration of open water in summer is an important albedo feedback mechanism. From summer to freeze-up, the net all-sky shortwave radiation declined steadily as the solar angle lowered, while coincidently the net all-sky longwave radiation became increasingly negative. The all-sky net surface radiation switched from positive in summer to negative during the freeze-up period. From summer to freeze-up, both upward and downward turbulent heat fluxes occurred. In summer, a positive surface energy budget residual contributed to the melting of ice floes and/or to the warming of the Arctic Ocean's mixed layer. During the freeze-up period, with temperatures below approximately ?5°C, the residuals were mainly negative suggesting that heat loss from the ocean's mixed layer and heat released by the phase change of water were significant components of the energy budget's residual.     

Inter-annual Variability of Moisture Flux from the Prairie Agro-ecosystem: Impact of Crop Phenology on the Seasonal Pattern of Tornado Days

This study, through the inclusion of a simpleparameterization of the phenologicaldevelopment of spring wheat in evapotranspirationsimulations for 1988–2000, at a representativearid grassland and a representative transitionalgrassland site, delineated the inter-annualvariability of the seasonal moisture flux from theCanadian Prairie agro-ecosystem. Theagro-ecosystem's contribution to atmospheric boundary-layermoisture, at these representative sites, wasrelated to the seasonal pattern of tornado days in thegrassland eco-climatic zone for the averageyear, for a warmer/drier year and for a cooler/wetteryear. The following conclusions were drawn:(1) The moisture flux from the Prairie agro-ecosystemdisplays considerable inter-annualvariability due, in the main, to the rate andtiming of crop phenological development andassociated biophysical parameters, and (2) themoisture flux from the Prairie agro-ecosystemtranslates directly into changes in atmosphericboundary-layer moisture, which subsequentlyaffects the magnitude of the potential energyavailable for deep convection and the seasonalpattern of tornado days. For expansive agriculturalareas, representing the inter-annual variabilityof crop phenological development in land surfacemodels is critical to the successful simulationof the surface moisture flux, and thus thethermodynamic properties of the atmospheric boundarylayer. Therefore, it is of particularimportance to Prairie climate and climate change modelling.     

Ocean dynamics determine the response of oceanic CO2 uptake to climate change

The increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to anthropogenic activities is substantially damped by the ocean, whose CO₂ uptake is determined by the state of the ocean, which in turn is influenced by climate change. We investigate the mechanisms of the ocean’s carbon uptake within the feedback loop of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, climate change and atmosphere/ocean CO₂ flux. We evaluate two transient simulations from 1860 until 2100, performed with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) with the carbon cycle included. In both experiments observed anthropogenic CO₂ emissions were prescribed until 2000, followed by the emissions according to the IPCC Scenario A2. In one simulation the radiative forcing of changing atmospheric CO₂ is taken into account (coupled), in the other it is suppressed (uncoupled). In both simulations, the oceanic carbon uptake increases from 1 GT C/year in 1960 to 4.5 GT C/year in 2070. Afterwards, this trend weakens in the coupled simulation, leading to a reduced uptake rate of 10% in 2100 compared to the uncoupled simulation. This includes a partial offset due to higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the coupled simulation owing to reduced carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere. The difference of the oceanic carbon uptake between both simulations is primarily due to partial pressure difference and secondary to solubility changes. These contributions are widely offset by changes of gas transfer velocity due to sea ice melting and wind changes. The major differences appear in the Southern Ocean (?45%) and in the North Atlantic (?30%), related to reduced vertical mixing and North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, respectively. In the polar areas, sea ice melting induces additional CO₂ uptake (+20%).     

Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate–carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?

Global warming caused by anthropogenic CO₂ emissions is expected to reduce the capability of the ocean and the land biosphere to take up carbon. This will enlarge the fraction of the CO₂ emissions remaining in the atmosphere, which in turn will reinforce future climate change. Recent model studies agree in the existence of such a positive climate–carbon cycle feedback, but the estimates of its amplitude differ by an order of magnitude, which considerably increases the uncertainty in future climate projections. Therefore we discuss, in how far a particular process or component of the carbon cycle can be identified, that potentially contributes most to the positive feedback. The discussion is based on simulations with a carbon cycle model, which is embedded in the atmosphere/ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Two simulations covering the period 1860–2100 are conducted to determine the impact of global warming on the carbon cycle. Forced by historical and future carbon dioxide emissions (following the scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), they reveal a noticeable positive climate–carbon cycle feedback, which is mainly driven by the tropical land biosphere. The oceans contribute much less to the positive feedback and the temperate/boreal terrestrial biosphere induces a minor negative feedback. The contrasting behavior of the tropical and temperate/boreal land biosphere is mostly attributed to opposite trends in their net primary productivity (NPP) under global warming conditions. As these findings depend on the model employed they are compared with results derived from other climate–carbon cycle models, which participated in the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP).

General Characteristics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over a Flaw Lead Polynya Region in Winter and Spring

A time series of microwave radiometric profiles over Arctic Canada’s Cape Bathurst (70°N, 124.5°W) flaw lead polynya region from 1 January to 30 June, 2008 was examined to determine the general characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer in winter and spring. A surface based or elevated inversion was present on 97% of winter (January–March) days, and on 77% of spring (April–June) days. The inversion was the deepest in the first week of March (≈1100 m), and the shallowest in June (≈250 m). The mean temperature and absolute humidity from the surface to the top of the inversion averaged 250.1 K (−23.1°C), and 0.56 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻³ in winter, and in spring averaged 267.5 K (−5.6°C), and 2.77 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻³. The median winter atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) potential temperature profile provided evidence of a shallow, weakly stable internal boundary layer (surface to 350 m) topped by an inversion (350–1,000 m). The median spring profile showed a shallow, near-neutral internal boundary layer (surface to 350 m) under an elevated inversion (600–800 m). The median ABL absolute humidity profiles were weakly positive in winter and negative in spring. Estimates of the convergence of sensible heat and water vapour from the surface that could have produced the turbulent internal boundary layers of the median profiles were 0.67 MJ m⁻² and 13.1 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻² for the winter season, and 0.66 MJ m⁻² and 33.4 × 10⁻³ kg m⁻² for the spring season. With fetches of 10–100 km, these accumulations may have resulted from a surface sensible heat flux of 15–185 W m⁻², plus a surface moisture flux of 0.001–0.013 mm h⁻¹ (or a latent heat flux of 0.7–8.8 W m⁻²) in winter, and 0.003–0.033 mm h⁻¹ (or a latent heat flux of 2–22 W m⁻²) in spring.