Climate change and agriculture in computable general equilibrium models: alternative modeling strategies and data needs

Agricultural sectors play a key role in the economics of climate change. Land as an input to agricultural production is one of the most important links between economy and the biosphere, representing a direct projection of human action on the natural environment. Agricultural management practices and cropping patterns exert an enormous effect on biogeochemical cycles, freshwater availability and soil quality. Agriculture also plays an important role in emitting and storing greenhouse gases. To consistently investigate climate policy and future pathways for the economic and natural environment, a realistic representation of agricultural land use is essential. Top—down Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have increasingly been used for this purpose. CGE models simulate the simultaneous equilibrium in a set of interdependent markets, and are especially suited to analyze agricultural markets from a global perspective. However, modeling agricultural sectors in CGE models is not a trivial task, mainly because of differences in temporal and geographic aggregation scales. This study surveys some proposed modeling strategies and highlights different tradeoffs involved in the various approaches. Coupling of top-down and bottom-up models is found to be the most applicable for comprehensive analysis of agriculture in prism of climate change. However, linking interdisciplinary data, methods and outputs is still the major obstacle to be solved for wide-scale implementation.     

Geology and eruptive history of the Rabaul Caldera area, Papua New Guinea

Rabaul Caldera is the most recently active (1937–1943) of four adjoining volcanic centres aligned north-south through the northern extremity of eastern New Britain. Geological mapping after the 1983–1985 Rabaul seismic and deformation crisis has partially revealed a long and complex eruption history dominated by numerous explosive eruptions, the largest accompanied by caldera collapse. The oldest exposed eruptives are the basaltic pre-caldera cone Tovanumbatir Lavas K/Ar dated at 0.5 Ma. The dacitic Rabaul Quarry Lavas exposed in the caldera wall and K/Ar dated at 0.19 Ma, are overlain by a sequence of dacitic and andesitic pyroclastic flow and fall deposits. Uplifted coral reef limestones, interbedded within the pyroclastic sequence on the northeast coast, suggest that explosive eruptions in the Rabaul area had commenced prior to the 0.125 Ma last interglacial high sea level stand. The pyroclastic sequence includes the large Boroi Ignimbrites and Malaguna Pyroclastics both ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dated at about 0.1 Ma, and the Barge Tunnel Ignimbrite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dated at around 0.04 Ma. Few reliable ages exist for the many younger eruptives. These include Holocene ignimbrites of the latest caldera-forming eruptions—the Raluan Pyroclastics variously dated (¹⁴C) at either about 3500 or 7000 yr B.P., and the ca. 1400 yr B.P. Rabaul Pyroclastics. At least eight intracaldera eruptions have occurred since the 1400 yr B.P. collapse, building small pyroclastic and lava cones within the caldera.A major erosional episode is evident as a widespread unconformity in the upper pyroclastic stratigraphy at Rabaul. Lacking relevant radiometric ages, this episode is assumed to have occurred during last glaciation low sea levels and is here arbitarily dated at ca. ?20 ka. At least five, possibly nine, significant ignimbrite eruptions have occurred at Rabaul during the last ?20 ka. The new eruptive history differs considerably from that previously published, which considered ignimbrite eruption and caldera collapse to have first occurred at 3500 yr B.P.Rabaul volcanism has been dominated by two main types: (a) basaltic and basaltic andesite cone building eruptions; and (b) dacitic, and rarely andesitic or rhyolitic, plinian/ignimbrite eruptions of both high- and low-aspect ratio types. The 1400 yr B.P. Rabaul Ignimbrite is a type example of a low-aspect ratio, high-energy, and potentially very damaging eruption. Fine vitric ash deposits, common in the Rabaul pyroclastic sequence, demonstrate the frequent modification of eruptions by external water probably related to early caldera lakes or bays. Interbedding of these fine ashes with plinian pumice lapilli beds suggests that many early eruptions occurred from multiple vents, located in both wet and dry areas.