Prediction of thermal conductivity in reservoir rocks using fabric theory

An accurate prediction of the thermal conductivity of reservoir rocks in the subsurface is extremely important for a quantitative analysis of basin thermal history and hydrocarbon maturation. A model for calculating the thermal conductivity of reservoir rocks as a function of mineral composition, porosity, fluid type, and temperature has been developed based on fabric theory and experimental data. The study indicates that thermal conductivities of reservoir rocks are dependent on the volume fraction of components (minerals, porosity, and fluids), the temperature, and the fraction of series elements (FSE) which represents the way that the mineral components aggregate. The sensitivity test of the fabric model shows that quartz is the most sensitive mineral for the thermal conductivity of clastic rocks. The study results indicate that the FSE value is very critical. Different lithologies have different optimum FSE values because of different textures and sedimentary structures. The optimum FSE values are defined as those which result in the least error in the model computation of the thermal conductivity of the rocks. These values are 0.444 for water-saturated clay rocks, 0.498 for water-saturated sandstones, and 0.337 for water-saturated carbonates. Compared with the geometric mean model, the fabric model yields better results for the thermal conductivity, largely because the model parameters can be adjusted to satisfy different lithologies and to minimize the mean errors. The fabric model provides a good approach for estimating paleothermal conductivity in complex rock systems based on the mineral composition and pore fluid saturation of the rocks.     

Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning

Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate a plan’s performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina.     

Metallothioneins and trace metals in the dogwhelk Nucella lapillus (L.) collected from Icelandic coasts

Different sizes of the dogwhelk Nucella lapillus were collected from eight locations along the southwest and north coasts of Iceland. Concentrations of total metallothioneins (MTs) and heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Mn, Ni, and Zn) were analysed using the silver saturation method and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry. The level of tributyltin (TBT) contamination was also assessed using imposex indices, the vas deferens stage index (VDSI) and relative penis size index (RPSI). Gufunes N. lapillus presented the highest values of VDSI (4.0) and RPSI (11.1), followed by Grenivík individuals (VDSI = 3.0; RPSI = 0.9), while the Strandakirkja population showed the lowest VDSI (0.3) and zero RPSI. At a standardised size (0.25 g dry soft-body weight), Grenivík N. lapillus exhibited significantly higher concentrations of all metals whereas overall metal concentrations were significantly lower in individuals from Strandakirkja and Garðskagi compared to other study sites. Partial correlation analyses with size correction indicated that MT concentrations were better correlated with Cd and Cu concentrations than with other metals. At the standard size, the pattern of MT concentrations in N. lapillus from different sites was, however, very different from those of metal profiles. Such discrepancies between the patterns of MT and metals in N. lapillus might be explained by the fact that MT induction could be influenced by various factors such as temperature, dietary metal intake, growth rate and co-existence of other MT-inducing chemicals.     

Salinograph trends as indicators of the recession characteristics of stream components

Compared to hydrograph recession analysis, which is widely applied in engineering hydrology, the quantitative assessment of stream salinity with time (i.e. the salinograph) has received significantly less attention. In particular, while in many previous hydrological studies an inverse relationship between hydrograph and salinograph responses is apparent, the concept of salinity accession (the inversely related salinity counterpart to hydrograph recession) has not been introduced nor quantitatively evaluated in previous literature. In this study, we conduct a mathematical analysis of salinograph accession, and determine new quantitative relationships between salinity accession and hydrograph recession parameters. An equation is formulated that reproduces the general trend in salinity accession. A salinity accession parameter k_c is then introduced and is shown to be the ratio of direct runoff to total stream flow recession parameters: k_r/k. The groundwater recession parameter k_g was estimated using a simple and rapid method that uses both salinograph and hydrograph data. Salinity accession type‐curves illustrate that under certain conditions, the relative steepness of individual salinographs is dependent upon the ratio of groundwater salinity to direct runoff salinity: C_g/C_r. The salinity accession algorithms are applied to two contrasting field settings: Scott Creek, South Australia and Sandy Creek, northern Queensland, Australia. It was found that k_g > k during periods of obvious stream flow recession, for the events analysed. Salinograph accession behaviour was fairly similar for both sites, despite contrasting environments. Using assumed end‐member salinities for groundwater and direct runoff based upon field observations, the behaviour of k_c from the Scott Creek site was approximately reproduced by varying the initial groundwater to runoff flow ratio: Q_g0/Q_r0, within reasonable parameter ranges. The use of salinograph information when used in addition to standard hydrograph analyses provided useful information on recession characteristics of stream components. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Capital investment and regional planning in Britain

British regional problems increasingly emphasize the need to understand the exploitation and movement of all factors of production between different parts of the country. This paper reviews evidence, from work sponsored by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, on the significance for the standard regions of capital investment, interregional capital flows and regional investment multipliers. A high level of economic interdependence allows the effects of investment to become widely spread throughout the British space economy. This limits the power of capital expenditure to lead growth in the region where it takes place. Studies of the spatial implications of capital investment should therefore form part of more general appraisals of factor supply and demand changes and their effects on the decisions of different investing agencies (including government). Two distinctive themes for the geographical study of capital investment are suggested: the examination of relationships between investment projects by different agencies at appropriate sub-regional scales; and the ways in which established patterns of physical capital stock may influence the expenditure of new, mobile funds.     

Large-Eddy Simulation Of Neutral Turbulent Flow Over Rough Sinusoidal Ridges

The requirements for a credible large-eddy simulation of neutral, turbulent flow over hills with an aerodynamically rough surface are discussed, in order to select a suitable case for simulation. As well as providing adequate resolution within the dynamically important inner region, obtaining a realistic upstream or undisturbed mean velocity profile is also of critical importance. A distributed drag canopy formulation has been introduced to the model to allow it to obtain such a profile while resolving very close to the rough surface. Simulations have then been performed of flow over ridges of varying heights. The results from the steepest case, which is just on the verge of separation, are compared with wind-tunnel observations. It is shown that the large-eddy simulation results are in much better agreement with the experimental data than are the results from a simple first-order mixing-length closure model. An encouraging lack of sensitivity of the simulation results to numerical resolution is also demonstrated.     

Reaction relationships of chrome-spinels in igneous rocks — further evidence from the layered intrusions of Rhum and Mull,Inner Hebrides,Scotland

Compositions of chrome-spinels in peridotites from the layered igneous rocks of Rhum and of the Ben Buie intrusion, Mull, show evidence of post-depositional reaction relationships with the cumulus olivine and/or the intercumulus liquid. Some seam-forming spinels in the Ben Buie intrusion are highly aluminous, more so than those in the Rhum intrusion. Occasional zoned spinels, in both intrusions, show enrichment in Al towards their rims. The evidence suggests that the spinel reaction trend involving Cr-Al exchange proceeds in the direction of Al-enrichment. Equilibrium between chrome-spinel and cumulus olivine appears to have been attained rarely, thus limiting the application of the olivine-spinel geothermometer.