Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Nutrient limitation of the macroalgaEnteromorpha intestinalis collected along a resource gradient in a highly eutrophic estuary

We conducted a laboratory experiment to quantify nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) limitation of macroalgae collected along a gradient in water column nutrient availability in Upper Newport Bay estuary, a relatively nutrient-rich system in southern California, United States. We collectedEnteromorpha intestinalis and water for use in the experiment from five sites ranging from the lower end of the estuary to the head. Initial algal tissue N and P concentrations and molar N∶P ratios—as well as water column NO₃ and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN)—increased along a spatial gradient from the lower end toward the head. Water column soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) varied among sites as well but did not follow a pattem of increasing from the seaward end toward the head. Algae from each site were assigned to one of four experimental treatments: control (C), nitrogen enrichment (+N), phosphorus enrichment (+P), and nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment (+N+P). Each week for 3 wk we replaced the water in each unit with the appropriate treatment water to mimic a poorly flushed estuary. After 3 wk, the degree of nutrient limitation ofE. intestinalis varied spatially with distance from the head of the estuary. Growth ofE. intestinalis collected from several sites increased with N enrichment alone and increased further when P was added in combination with N This indicated that N was limiting and that when N was sufficient, P became limiting. Sites from whichE. intestinalis exhibited nutrient limitation spanned the range of background water column NO₃ (12.9±0.4 to 55.2±2.1 μM) and SRP (0.8±0.0 to 2.9±0.2 μM) concentrations. Algae that were N limited had initial tissue N levels ranging from 1.18±0.03 to 2.81±0.08% dry weight and molar N∶P ratios ranging from 16.75±0.39 to 26.40±1.98.     

Formation of chondritic refractory inclusions: The astrophysical setting

This study attempts to identify the astrophysical setting in which properties of the Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) found in chondritic meteorites are best understood. Importance is attached to the short time period in which most or all of the CAIs were formed (<∼0.5 Myr, corresponding to the observed dispersion of values of initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al about the canonical value of ∼5 × 10⁻⁵), a constraint that has been overlooked. This period is dissimilar to the time scale of evolution of T Tauri stars, ∼10 Myr; it corresponds instead to the time scale of Class 0 and Class I young stellar objects, protostars as they exist during the massive infall of interstellar material that creates stars. The innermost portion of the sun’s rapidly accreting nebular disk, kept hot during that period by viscous dissipation, is the most plausible site for CAI formation. Once condensed, CAIs must be taken out of that hot zone rather promptly in order to preserve their specialized mineralogical compositions, and they must be transported to the radial distance of the asteroid belt to be available for accretion into the chondrites that contain them today. Though this paper is critical of some aspects of the x-wind model of CAI formation, something akin to the x-wind may be the best way of understanding this extraction and transport of CAIs.     

Fifty-thousand-year vegetation and climate history of Noel Kempff Mercado National Park, Bolivian Amazon

Pollen and charcoal records from two large, shallow lakes reveal that throughout most of the past 50,000 yr Noel Kempff Mercado National Park, in northeastern lowland Bolivia (southwestern Amazon Basin), was predominantly covered by savannas and seasonally dry semideciduous forests. Lowered atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, in combination with a longer dry season, caused expansion of dry forests and savannas during the last glacial period, especially at the last glacial maximum. These ecosystems persisted until the mid-Holocene, although they underwent significant species reassortment. Forest communities containing a mixture of evergreen and semideciduous species began to expand between 6000 and 3000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Humid evergreen rain forests expanded to cover most of the area within the past 2000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., coincident with a reduction in fire frequencies. Comparisons between modern pollen spectra and vegetation reveal that the Moraceae-dominated rain forest pollen spectra likely have a regional source area at least 2-3 km beyond the lake shore, whereas the grass- and sedge-dominated savanna pollen spectra likely have a predominantly local source area. The Holocene vegetation changes are consistent with independent paleoprecipitation records from the Bolivian Altiplano and paleovegetation records from other parts of southwestern Amazonia. The progressive expansion in rain forests through the Holocene can be largely attributed to enhanced convective activity over Amazonia, due to greater seasonality of insolation in the Southern Hemisphere tropics driven by the precession cycle according to the Milankovitch Astronomical Theory.     

1998 Eruption at Volcán Cerro Azul, Galápagos Islands: I. Syn-Eruptive Petrogenesis

The 1998 eruption of Volcán Cerro Azul in the Galápagos Islands produced two intra-caldera vents and a flank vent that erupted more than 1.0×10⁸ m³ of lava. Lava compositions changed notably during the 5-week eruption, and contemporaneous eruptions in the caldera and on the flank produced different compositions. Lavas erupted from the flank vent range from 6.3 to 14.1% MgO, nearly the entire range of MgO contents previously reported from the volcano. On-site monitoring of eruptive activity is linked with petrogenetic processes such that geochemical variations are evaluated in a temporal context. Lavas from the 1998 eruption record two petrogenetic stages characterized by progressively more mafic lavas as the eruption proceeded. Crystal compositions, whole rock major and trace element compositions, and isotope ratios indicate that early lavas are the product of mixing between 1998 magma and remnant magma of the 1979 eruption. Intra-caldera lavas and later lavas have no 1979 signature, but were produced by the 1998 magma incorporating olivine and clinopyroxene xenocrysts. Thus, early magma petrogenesis is characterized by mixing with the 1979 magma, followed by the magma progressively entraining wehrlite cumulate mush.Editorial Responsibility: M.R. Carroll     

Analysis of village accessibility and its impact on land use dynamics in a mountainous province of northern Vietnam

Surveys carried out in mountainous areas of northern Vietnam at research sites selected across a gradient of market integration, revealed strong relationships between the location of the village with respect to the national road network and the nature of its land-use systems, its poverty level and more generally its potential for development. We developed and tested in Bac Kan province a method to give an objective and quantitative definition of accessibility over a large geographic area. Accessibility maps integrated in a provincial GIS showed that despite recent improvements to the road network, some remote areas do not benefit from recent development.     

Bound and mobile soil water isotope ratios are affected by soil texture and mineralogy,whereas extraction method influences their measurement

Questions persist about interpreting isotope ratios of bound and mobile soil water pools, particularly relative to clay content and extraction conditions. Interactions between pools and resulting extracted water isotope composition are presumably related to soil texture, yet few studies have manipulated the bound pool to understand its influence on soil water processes. Using a series of drying and spiking experiments, we effectively labelled bound and mobile water pools in soils with varying clay content. Soils were first vacuum dried to remove residual water, which was then replaced with heavy isotope-enriched water prior to oven drying and spiking with heavy isotope-depleted water. Water was extracted via centrifugation or cryogenic vacuum distillation (at four temperatures) and analysed for oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios via isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Water from centrifuged samples fell along a mixing line between the two added waters but was more enriched in heavy isotopes than the depleted label, demonstrating that despite oven drying, a residual pool remains and mixes with the mobile water. Soils with higher clay + silt content appeared to have a larger bound pool. Water from vacuum distillation samples have a significant temperature effect, with high temperature extractions yielding progressively more heavy isotope-enriched values, suggesting that Rayleigh fractionation occurred at low temperatures in the vacuum line. By distinctly labelling bound and mobile soil water pools, we detected interactions between the two that were dependent on soil texture. Although neither extraction method appeared to completely extract the combined bound and mobile (total water) pool, centrifugation and high temperature cryogenic vacuum distillations were comparable for both δ²H and δ¹⁸O of soil water isotope ratios.     

A diatom‐inferred record of lake variability during the last 900 years in Lützow–Holm Bay,East Antarctica

Decadal–centennial‐scale climate variability in coastal Antarctica remains poorly understood due to the limited number of highly resolved, well‐dated records. We present a 900‐year, decadal‐scale reconstruction based on sedimentary diatoms from Lake Abi in Lützow–Holm Bay, East Antarctica. Hydrological change is inferred from diatom ecological preferences in conjunction with an existing regional training set and implies that lake water specific conductivity, depth and nitrogen availability are the key drivers of diatom assemblage change. Lake Abi underwent a series of subtle environmental changes related to these environmental variables, possibly driven by changes in catchment snow melt and the duration of seasonal ice cover. Ordination is used to trace the major patterns of change in the diatom community, with notable shifts identified between 470 and 400 and at ～350 cal a BP (where present = CE 1950). The frequency of environmental variability at Lake Abi is broadly consistent with a record of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation during the last millennium, but contrasts with the apparent climate stability elsewhere in eastern Antarctica. Further research is required to constrain the limnological and ecological responses of lakes in coastal Antarctica to obtain more rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from these sites of immense potential.