Analyzing hydrologic uncertainty and its impact upon decision making in water resources

Bayesian Inference and Decision Theory tools are applied to the problem of synthetic hydrology when model and parameter uncertainty exist. Issues such as optimal parameter estimation, use of synthetic generation in design problems, and the effects of parameter uncertainty on statistical estimation are discussed and applied to the problem of reservoir slorage-yield analysis.     

Metallothioneins and trace metals in the dogwhelk Nucella lapillus (L.) collected from Icelandic coasts

Different sizes of the dogwhelk Nucella lapillus were collected from eight locations along the southwest and north coasts of Iceland. Concentrations of total metallothioneins (MTs) and heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Mn, Ni, and Zn) were analysed using the silver saturation method and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry. The level of tributyltin (TBT) contamination was also assessed using imposex indices, the vas deferens stage index (VDSI) and relative penis size index (RPSI). Gufunes N. lapillus presented the highest values of VDSI (4.0) and RPSI (11.1), followed by Grenivík individuals (VDSI = 3.0; RPSI = 0.9), while the Strandakirkja population showed the lowest VDSI (0.3) and zero RPSI. At a standardised size (0.25 g dry soft-body weight), Grenivík N. lapillus exhibited significantly higher concentrations of all metals whereas overall metal concentrations were significantly lower in individuals from Strandakirkja and Garðskagi compared to other study sites. Partial correlation analyses with size correction indicated that MT concentrations were better correlated with Cd and Cu concentrations than with other metals. At the standard size, the pattern of MT concentrations in N. lapillus from different sites was, however, very different from those of metal profiles. Such discrepancies between the patterns of MT and metals in N. lapillus might be explained by the fact that MT induction could be influenced by various factors such as temperature, dietary metal intake, growth rate and co-existence of other MT-inducing chemicals.     

A constitutive model for sand in triaxial compression

Although there is a large number of constitutive models for sand available in the literature it is believed that a fresh approach, striking a balance between complexity and theoretical rigour, is desirable. The approach here has certain conceptual links with the Cam Clay series of elastic–plastic models, but includes the more general starting assumption that the yield function, plastic potential and failure locus should be given quite distinct mathematical expressions. Possible physical bases for the proposed forms are discussed. Ways in which the parameters required to define the model may be determined are suggested and the use of the model is then demonstrated. Firstly, it is shown that, where a limited set of experimental data is available, the model is flexible enough to be able to match the test results. Secondly, it is shown that, where a wide range of test results has been produced, it is possible to determine the model constitutive parameters from a small number of tests and proceed to make satisfactory predictionsfor other, quite different, types of test. The model is developed for sand at a single initial density, but the way in which the constitutive parameters might be expected to vary with density is discussed. The model is described for conditions of triaxial compression, and extension to more general stress states will be needed before it can be put to the test of incorporation in, for example, a finite element program.     

Moon: Origin and evolution of multi-ring basins

This paper summarizes current data and new observations on lunar basin systems. Parts 1–4 review earlier literature and give new crater-counts used to reconstruct basin histories. Among the results are: basin rings are defined by faults, hills, craters, and/or wrinkle ridges; all of these are inter-related; 2 plays a special role in the ratios of ring diameters; flooding occurred in many basins prior to the formation of the familiar front-side maria; 3 km is a typical depth of lava flooding in basins. Parts 5–11 interpret these results in terms of origin and evolution of basins. Polar concentrations of basins and old, large craters are found (Figures 28 and 29). Basins originated by impacts of very early planetesimals left over from or created during formation of the Moon (6). Concentric fractures were produced by the impacts. Concentric rings developed along fractures during subsequent sagging of the basin into partially melted substrata, along the lines of theory and experiments by Lance and Onat (1962) (Figures 36 and 37). There is marginal empirical evidence that some rings formed significantly after their basins (8). The structure of specific rings depended on the nature of volcanic products extruded. Wrinkle ridges, peak-rings, rings of craters, concentric graben, and central peaks are all consequences of basin-forming evolutionary processes (9, Figure 41), Flooding by lava was a final stage in basin evolution. Lava extruded from concentric ring-faults, wrinkle ridges, and crater and basin rims (10). Mascons are directly correlated with the amount of mare lava, but not correlated with basin age or morphology (11). Section 12 summarizes the results and compares them to those of other authors.     

Strontium isotopic identification of water-rock interaction and ground water mixing

87Sr/86Sr ratios of ground waters in the Bighorn and Laramie basins' carbonate and carbonate-cemented aquifer systems, Wyoming, United States, reflect the distinctive strontium isotope signatures of the minerals in their respective aquifers. Well water samples from the Madison Aquifer (Bighorn Basin) have strontium isotopic ratios that match their carbonate host rocks. Casper Aquifer ground waters (Laramie Basin) have strontium isotopic ratios that differ from the bulk host rock; however, stepwise leaching of Casper Sandstone indicates that most of the strontium in Casper Aquifer ground waters is acquired from preferential dissolution of carbonate cement. Strontium isotope data from both Bighorn and Laramie basins, along with dye tracing experiments in the Bighorn Basin and tritium data from the Laramie Basin, suggest that waters in carbonate or carbonate-cemented aquifers acquire their strontium isotope composition very quickly--on the order of decades. Strontium isotopes were also used successfully to verify previously identified mixed Redbeds-Casper ground waters in the Laramie Basin. The strontium isotopic compositions of ground waters near Precambrian outcrops also suggest previously unrecognized mixing between Casper and Precambrian aquifers. These results demonstrate the utility of strontium isotopic ratio data in identifying ground water sources and aquifer interactions.     

Light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma, Mars

We examine hypotheses for the formation of light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma using a combination of data from Mars Global Surveyor's Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Odyssey's Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). We divide Juventae Chasma into geomorphic units of (i) chasm wall rock, (ii) heavily cratered hummocky terrain, (iii) a mobile and largely crater-free sand sheet on the chasm floor, (iv) light-toned layered outcrop (LLO) material, and (v) chaotic terrain. Using surface temperatures derived from THEMIS infrared data and slopes from MOLA, we derive maps of thermal inertia, which are consistent with the geomorphic units that we identify. LLO thermal inertias range from ∼400 to 850 J m⁻² K⁻¹ s^−1/2. Light-toned layered outcrops are distributed over a remarkably wide elevation range () from the chasm floor to the adjacent plateau surface. Geomorphic features, the absence of small craters, and high thermal inertia show that the LLOs are composed of sedimentary rock that is eroding relatively rapidly in the present epoch. We also present evidence for exhumation of LLO material from the west wall of the chasm, within chaotic and hummocky terrains, and within a small depression in the adjacent plateau. The data imply that at least some of the LLO material was deposited long before the adjacent Hesperian plateau basalts, and that Juventae Chasma underwent, and may still be undergoing, enlargement along its west wall due to wall rock collapse, chaotic terrain evolution, and exposure and removal of LLO material. The new data allow us to reassess possible origins of the LLOs. Gypsum, one of the minerals reported elsewhere as found in Juventae Chasma LLO material, forms only at low temperatures () and thus excludes a volcanic origin. Instead, the data are consistent with either multiple occurrences of lacustrine or airfall deposition over an extended period of time prior to emplacement of Hesperian lava flows on the plateau above the chasm.     

Partnering between a geography department and a community initiative to provide a wind resource assessment for the Blueskin Bay region,Otago, New Zealand

This paper explores the partnership between a community group and a geography department to assess the wind energy potential of the Blueskin Bay region in southern New Zealand. The partnership has provided opportunities for research and is of strategic importance. Year‐long wind observations and numerical modelling have revealed that the hills surrounding Blueskin Bay show potential for wind energy generation. Despite challenges for both parties, the university–community partnership has allowed a successful research platform to be established.     

Growing up and cleaning up: The environmental Kuznets curve redux

Borrowing from the Kuznets curve literature, researchers have coined the term “environmental Kuznets curve” or EKC to characterize the relationship between pollution levels and income: pollution levels will increase with income but some threshold of income will eventually be reached, beyond which pollution levels will decrease. The link between the original Kuznets curve, which posited a similar relationship between income and inequality, and its pollution-concerned offspring lies primarily with the shape of both curves (an upside-down U) and the central role played by income change. Although the EKC literature has burgeoned over the past several years, few concrete conclusions have been drawn, the main themes of the literature have remained constant, and no consensus has been reached regarding the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve. EKC research has used a variety of types of data and a range of geographical units to examine the effects of income levels on pollution. Changes in pollution levels might also be at least partly explained by countries’ position in the demographic transition and their general population structure, however little research has included this important aspect in the analysis. In addition, few analyses confine themselves to an evaluation for one country of the long-term relationship between income and pollution. Using United States CO₂ emissions as well as demographic, employment, trade and energy price data, this paper seeks to highlight the potential impact of population and economic structure in explaining the relationship between income and pollution levels.     

Climate change and agriculture in computable general equilibrium models: alternative modeling strategies and data needs

Agricultural sectors play a key role in the economics of climate change. Land as an input to agricultural production is one of the most important links between economy and the biosphere, representing a direct projection of human action on the natural environment. Agricultural management practices and cropping patterns exert an enormous effect on biogeochemical cycles, freshwater availability and soil quality. Agriculture also plays an important role in emitting and storing greenhouse gases. To consistently investigate climate policy and future pathways for the economic and natural environment, a realistic representation of agricultural land use is essential. Top—down Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have increasingly been used for this purpose. CGE models simulate the simultaneous equilibrium in a set of interdependent markets, and are especially suited to analyze agricultural markets from a global perspective. However, modeling agricultural sectors in CGE models is not a trivial task, mainly because of differences in temporal and geographic aggregation scales. This study surveys some proposed modeling strategies and highlights different tradeoffs involved in the various approaches. Coupling of top-down and bottom-up models is found to be the most applicable for comprehensive analysis of agriculture in prism of climate change. However, linking interdisciplinary data, methods and outputs is still the major obstacle to be solved for wide-scale implementation.