Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming

For almost two decades, politicians have been negotiating temperature limits to which anthropogenic global warming should be restricted, and 2 °C has emerged as benchmark for danger. However, there has been a lack of scientific research into the implications of such a change for African climate. This study aims to provide information for mitigation debates; through an examination of temperature and precipitation changes in Africa associated with 1 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C of global warming. Data from Global Climate Models show little significant precipitation change at 1 °C, then larger anomalies at 2 °C which are strengthened and extended at 3 °C and 4 °C, including a wet signal in East Africa, and dry signals in Southern Africa, the Guinea Coast, and the west of the Sahel. Some of the models project changes with potential for severe societal implications. Despite the uncertainty attached to these projections, they highlight risks associated with 2 °C and beyond. Using these findings as a framework for impact assessment and evaluation, further research has the potential to uncover the implications of global warming for African regions.     

Bacteriological water quality along the Tijuana-Ensenada, Baja California, México shoreline

This survey was part of a Binational Program (Mexico-United States) in microbiological water quality, with a goal to assess the shoreline bacteriological water quality from Tijuana to Ensenada, Mexico. Samples were collected at 29 sites (19 beaches and 10 outfalls), from the United States border to Punta Banda, Baja California, during summer (1998) and winter (1999). Total coliforms, fecal coliforms and enterococci were used as bacterial indicators. Standard methods were used for total and fecal coliforms, while the Enterolert quick method (IDEXX) was used for the enterococci. Compared with outfalls, the beaches exceeded water quality standards by a small percent, 25.3% in summer and 17% in winter. For outfalls, the percentage of shoreline that exceeded bacterial indicator thresholds had a minor value in summer (32.7%) than in winter (50%). Sites near wastewater discharges had the lowest quality and did not meet the microbiological water quality criteria for recreational use.     

Probabilistic stability assessment using adaptive limit analysis and random fields

For deterministic scenarios, adaptive finite element limit analysis has been successfully employed to achieve tight bounds on the ultimate load of a geotechnical structure in a much more efficient manner than a dense uniform mesh. However, no probabilistic studies have so far considered finite element limit analysis with adaptive remeshing. Therefore, this research explores the benefits of combining adaptive mesh refinement with finite element limit analysis for probabilistic applications. The outcomes indicate that in order to achieve tight bounds on probabilistic results (such as the probability of failure), the ultimate load in each individual simulation (e.g. factor of safety or bearing capacity) has to be estimated with a very high level of accuracy and this can be achieved more economically using adaptive mesh refinement. The benefits, assessed here for undrained conditions, are expected to be much more pronounced in the case of frictional soils and complex geometries.