The ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Magnetic characteristics of sediment grains concurrently contaminated with TBT and metals near a shipyard in Busan,Korea

Bottom sediments near shipyards are often susceptible to receiving accidental spills of TBT and metals or their degradation products from hull scraping of antifouling system paints applied prior to 2008, when the AFS Convention 2001 was not in force. We investigated TBT and metal contamination of sediments near the shipyards of a small marina located in Busan, Korea and found that they were highly contaminated with TBT, Cu, and Zn. To better understand the environmental impacts and to make an optimal remediation plan, we characterized individual antifouling fragments in terms of metal and TBT contents, magnetic properties, and grain-size. Coarse-sized individual antifouling fragments exhibited simultaneously high levels of TBT, metals and high magnetic susceptibility, and appeared to be a major source of pollution in the sediment. Therefore, magnetic separation in combination with size-separation appears to be a cost-effective remediation method to remove the TBT and metals from contaminated shipyard sediments.     

Distribution and enrichment of trace metals and arsenic at the upper layer of sediments from Lerma River in La Piedad,Mexico: case history

Lerma River is one of the largest rivers in Mexico. Over the past 20 years, unplanned population growth occurred along its course and the river has been used as the only outlet for industrial and domestic wastewater disposal. The aim of the present study was to determine trace metals such as Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Fe, Pb, and arsenic concentrations at the upper layer of sediments of the Lerma River meander in La Piedad, Michoacan, Mexico. Sediment samples were collected from eight different sites during the rainy and dry seasons. All samples were physically characterized, and concentration values of trace metals and As were determined. On the basis of protection criteria for freshwater sediments, concentrations of Fe, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Pb were found to exceed the lowest effect level; moreover, the concentrations were found to exceed the severe effect level at some sites, particularly for Cu. Statistical analyses showed significant differences between sampling seasons for Fe and As, and among sites for Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb. In addition, the enrichment factor indicates the following order Zn > Cr > Cu > Ni > Pb > As, and the geoaccumulation index (I _geo) indicates contamination in the following order Zn > Cr > Cu > Ni > As > Pb. The Lerma River meander in La Piedad shows a reduction in pollution by trace metals and arsenic near the drain area and downstream of the meander. However, there are significantly higher concentrations of these elements in sediments of sites located in the middle part of the city.     

Low‐P melting of metapelitic rocks and the role of H2O: Insights from phase equilibria modelling

Water‐fluxed melting has long been thought to have a minor influence on the thermal and chemical structure of the crust. We report here on amphibolite facies metasedimentary rocks from the 490–450 Ma Famatinian Orogen, in northwest Argentina, that have undergone water‐fluxed incongruent biotite melting at relatively low temperature, which have produced and lost a significant volume of melt. The protoliths consist of the turbiditic Puncoviscana Formation (Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian). The field area exhibits a condensed metamorphic field gradient, from greenschist to amphibolite facies suprasolidus conditions, recording a low pressure almost isobaric path, reaching peak conditions estimated at 700°C at 4 kbar. Thermodynamic modelling in the MnNCKFMASHTO system is applied to investigate melting at such low pressure as a function of water content. Calculations using a typical turbidite composition show how small amounts of added free H₂O may increase significantly the melt fraction with little or no change in either the melt or residual phase compositions. They indicate negligible difference in normative An–Ab–Or proportions and ferromagnesian contents between melts derived by dehydration and water‐fluxed melts. The same is true for the content of H₂O dissolved in melts, which remains constant and the melt produced is granitic whether or not aqueous fluids are present. Thus, neither the residue nor the melt composition are indicators of the presence of aqueous fluids during anatexis. Recognizing the impact of small additions of H₂O to an anatectic terrane may therefore be difficult. The most significant change related to water‐fluxing is the relative proportions of minerals and melt fraction, rather than the actual mineral assemblage. The modal proportion of feldspar decreased while those of cordierite and biotite increased in the residual assemblages, as <5 mol.% of free H₂O was added. The impact of this addition is to more than double the proportion of water‐undersaturated melt to 25–30 mol.%. We have also developed a simple way to estimate how much melt a residual rock has lost, if the compositional trends of the protoliths are known. In summary, we find that even though the addition of small amounts of free H₂O impacts significantly on rock fertility, there is little obvious record in the field. The combined application of careful petrological investigation and thermodynamic modelling is the key to identify the influence of aqueous fluids, and exploit systems that became open not only to fluid influx but also to the extraction of melt.     

Empirical ground-motion relations using moderate earthquakes recorded by Medellín–Aburrá Valley (Colombia) strong-motion networks

We tested attenuation relations obtained for different regions of the world to verify their suitability to predict strong-motion data recorded by Medellín and Aburrá Valley Accelerographic Networks. We used as comparison criteria, the average of the difference between the observed and the predicted data as a function of epicenter distance and its standard deviation. We also used the approach developed by Sherbaum et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 94:2164–2185, 2004) that provides a method to evaluate the overall goodness-of-fit of ground-motion prediction equations. The predictive models selected use a generic focal depth. We found that this parameter has an important influence in the ground-motion predictions and must be taken into account as an independent variable. We also found important to characterize the local soil amplification to improve the attenuation relations. We found empirical relations for peak horizontal acceleration PGA and velocity PGV based on the Kamiyama and Yanagisawa (Soils Found 26:16–32, 1986) approach. $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGA)=0.5886M_L -1.0902\log _{10}(R)-0.0035H+C_{st}\pm 0.\text{29} \end{aligned}$$ $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} (PGV)=0.7255M_L -1.8812\log _{10}(R)-0.0016H+C_{st}\pm 0.36 \end{aligned}$$ where PGA is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ and PGV in cm/s, $M_{L}$ is local magnitude in the range 2.8–6.5, $R$ is epicentral distance up to 290 km, $H$ is focal depth in km and $C_{st}$ is a coefficient that accounts for the site response due to soil conditions of each recording station. The introduction of focal depth and local site conditions as independent variables, minimize the residuals and the dispersion of the predicted data. We conclude that $H$ and $C_{st}$ are sensitive parameters, having a strong influence on the strong-motion predictions. Using the same functional form, we also propose an empirical relation for the root mean square acceleration a $_\mathrm{rms}$ : $$\begin{aligned} \log _{10} \left( {a_{rms} } \right)=0.4797M_L -1.1665\log _{10} (R)-0.00201H+C_{st}\pm 0.40 \end{aligned}$$ where a $_\mathrm{rms}$ is measured in cm/s $^{2}$ , from the S-wave arrival and using a window length equal to the rupture duration. The other variables are the same as those for PGA and PGV. The site correction coefficients $C_{st}$ found for PGA, PGV and a $_\mathrm{rms}$ show a similar trend indicating a good correlation with the soil conditions of the recording sites.     

Assessing drought threats to agricultural water supplies under climate change by combining the SWAT and MODSIM models for the Geum River basin,South Korea

ABSTRACT

The impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km²) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Diversity of the 2014 Iquique’s foreshocks and aftershocks: clues about the complex rupture process of a Mw 8.1 earthquake

We study the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1 April 2014 Iquique earthquake of Mw 8.1. Most of these events were recorded by a large digital seismic network that included the Northern Chile permanent network and up to 26 temporary broadband digital stations. We relocated and computed moment tensors for 151 events of magnitude Mw?≥?4.5. Most of the foreshocks and aftershocks of the Iquique earthquake are distributed to the southwest of the rupture zone. These events are located in a band of about 50 km from the trench, an area where few earthquakes occur elsewhere in Chile. Another important group of aftershocks is located above the plate interface, similar to those observed during the foreshock sequence. The depths of these events were constrained by regional moment tensor (RMT) solutions obtained using the records of the dense broad band network. The majority of the foreshocks and aftershocks were associated to the interplate contact, with dip and strike angles in good agreement with the characteristics of horst and graben structures (>2000 m offset) typical of the oceanic Nazca Plate at the trench and in the outer rise region. We propose that the spatial distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks, and its seismological characteristics were strongly controlled by the rheological and tectonics conditions of the extreme erosive margin of Northern Chile.     

Body-wave Attenuation in the Region of Garda, Italy

We analyzed the spectral amplitude decay with hypocentral distance of P and S waves generated by 76 small magnitude earthquakes (M_L 0.9–3.8) located in the Garda region, Central-Eastern Alps, Italy. These events were recorded by 18 stations with velocity sensors, in a distance range between 8 and 120 km. We calculated nonparametric attenuation functions (NAF) and estimated the quality factor Q of both body waves at 17 different frequencies between 2 and 25 Hz. Assuming a homogeneous model we found that the Q frequency dependence of P and S can be approximated with the functions Q _P = 65 f ^0.9 and Q _S = 160 f ^0.6 , respectively. At 2 Hz the Q _S /Q _P ratio reaches the highest value of 2.8. At higher frequencies Q _S /Q _P varies between 0.7 and 1.7, suggesting that for this frequency band scattering may be an important attenuation mechanism in the region of Garda. To explore the variation of Q in depth, we estimated Q at short (r ≤ 30 km) and intermediate (35–90 km) distance paths. We found that in the shallow crust P waves attenuate more than S (1.3 < Q _S /Q _P < 2.5). Moreover, P waves traveling along paths in the lower crust (depths approximately greater than 30 km) attenuate more than S waves. To quantify the observed variability of Q in depth we considered a three-layer model and inverted the NAF to estimate Q in each layer. We found that in the crust Q increases with depth. However, in the upper mantle (~40–50 km depth) Q decreases and in particular the high frequency Q _S (f > 9 Hz) has values similar to those estimated for the shallow layer of the crust.