The structural,geometric and volumetric changes of a polythermal Arctic glacier during a surge cycle: Comfortlessbreen,Svalbard

Various parameters of the most recent surge of the polythermal glacier Comfortlessbreen in northwest Svalbard, have been assessed through a combination of remote sensing and ground observations. Analysis of a digital elevation model time‐series shows a marked change in the geometry of the glacier from quiescence (1990 and earlier) into the late surge phase (2009). The transfer of 0.74 km³ of ice caused up to 80 m of surface drawdown in the reservoir area, above the equilibrium line, whilst ice built up in a spatially concentrated manner in the receiving zone, below the equilibrium line. A ramp of ice, c. 100 m above quiescent level, developed in the lower reaches of the glacier late in the surge. Also in the lower reaches of the glacier, structures attributable to the passage of a kinematic wave are identified and the migration of a surge front on the glacier is thus inferred. In a conceptual model, we consider that a bend in the valley, in which the glacier resides, and convergence with tributary glaciers, to be significant factors in the style of surge evolution. Their flow‐restrictive interference results in slow initial mass‐transfer and the growth of a surge front within 3–4 km of the terminus. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Practical Measurement Strategy to Estimate Nonlinear Chlorinated Solvent Sorption in Low foc Sediments

In this study, we tested a practical strategy useful for accurate chlorinated volatile organic compound (cVOC) sorption prediction. Corresponding to the feature of the superposition of adsorption due to thermally altered carbonaceous matter (TACM) with organic carbon‐water partitioning, a nonlinear Freundlich sorption isotherm covering a wide range of aqueous concentrations was defined by equilibrium sorption measurement at one or a few low concentration points with extrapolation to the empirical organic carbon‐water partition coefficient (K_oc,e) near compound solubility. We applied this approach to obtain perchloroethene equilibrium sorption isotherm parameters for TACM‐containing glacial sand and gravel subsoil samples from a field site in New York. Sorption and associated K_oc,c applicable to low (5–500 µg/L) and high (>100,000 µg/L) aqueous concentrations were determined in batch experiments. (The K_oc,c is the organic carbon‐normalized sorption partition coefficient corresponding to aqueous concentration C_w.) The K_oc,c measurements at low concentration (~5 µg/L) were 6 to 34 times greater than the K_oc,e. The importance of this type of data is illustrated through presentation of its substantial impact on the site remedy. In so doing, we provide an approach that is broadly applicable to cVOC field sites with similar circumstances (low carbon content glacial sand and gravel with TACM).     

Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019

We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (T_min) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced T_min is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed T_min anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 T_min anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the T_min forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.

     

The legacy of crystal-plastic deformation in olivine: high-diffusivity pathways during serpentinization

Crystal-plastic olivine deformation to produce subgrain boundaries composed of edge dislocations is an inevitable consequence of asthenospheric mantle flow. Although crystal-plastic deformation and serpentinization are spatio-temporally decoupled, we identified compositional readjustments expressed on the micrometric level as a striped Fe-enriched ( [`(X)]<sub>\textFe</sub> \bar{X}_{\text{Fe}}  = 0.24 ± 0.02 (zones); 0.12 ± 0.02 (bulk)) or Fe-depleted ( [`(X)]_\textFe \bar{X}_{\text{Fe}}  = 0.10 ± 0.01 (zones); 0.13 ± 0.01 (bulk)) zoning in partly serpentinized olivine grains from two upper mantle sections in Norway. Focused ion beam sample preparation combined with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and aberration-corrected scanning TEM, enabling atomic-level resolved electron energy-loss spectroscopic line profiling, reveals that every zone is immediately associated with a subgrain boundary. We infer that the zonings are a result of the environmental Fe²⁺Mg₋₁ exchange potential during antigorite serpentinization of olivine and the drive toward element exchange equilibrium. This is facilitated by enhanced solid-state diffusion along subgrain boundaries in a system, which otherwise re-equilibrates via dissolution-reprecipitation. Fe enrichment or depletion is controlled by the silica activity imposed on the system by the local olivine/orthopyroxene mass ratio, temperature and the effect of magnetite stability. The Fe-Mg exchange coefficients K_\textD^{\textAtg/\textOl} K_{\text{D}}^{{{\text{Atg}}/{\text{Ol}}}} between both types of zoning and antigorite display coalescence toward exchange equilibrium. With both types of zoning, Mn is enriched and Ni depleted compared with the unaffected bulk composition. Nanometer-sized, heterogeneously distributed antigorite precipitates along olivine subgrain boundaries suggest that water was able to ingress along them. Crystallographic orientation relationships gained via electron backscatter diffraction between olivine grain domains and different serpentine vein generations support the hypothesis that serpentinization was initiated along olivine subgrain boundaries.     

Defense community perspectives on uncertainty and confidence judgments

In 2007, the CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB), an expert panel composed of 11 retired admirals and generals from the United States, identified climate change as a “threat multiplier” for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. (CNA MAB National security and the threat of climate change 2007)The Department of Defense reached a similar conclusion in last year’s Quadrennial Defense Review–a legislatively mandated analysis of the Defense Department’s strategy and priorities. This document frames the long-term course for policy decision-making at the highest levels. The reports demonstrate that climate change and energy are now mainstream elements of national security planning, and can be assessed within the frameworks used to evaluate other threats, risks, and responses. However, the exact magnitude of the threat posed by climate change is difficult to calibrate in part because the language used by scientists to predict uncertainty and the confidence levels of judgments is not sufficiently clear. The defense community has a vast amount of experience exploring and dealing with uncertainty. Scientists trying to better describe the effects of climate change may be able to draw lessons from the defense community’s approach to uncertainty including how to better communicate findings to wide audiences including policy-makers.     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Stock Origins of Subadult and Adult Atlantic Sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus, in a Non-natal Estuary, Long Island Sound

The anadromous acipenserid Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus was listed in 2012 under the U.S. Endangered Species Act as having four endangered and one threatened distinct population segment (DPS) in American waters. Anthropogenic activities outside of natal estuaries, particularly bycatch, may hinder the abilities of some populations to rebuild. Most Atlantic sturgeon are residential for their first 2–6 years within their natal estuaries, whereas older subadults and adults may migrate to non-natal estuaries and coastal locations. Previous studies demonstrated that subadults and adults aggregate during summer at locations in Long Island Sound (LIS) and its tributary, the Connecticut River; however, the population origin of these fish is unknown. Because of its geographic proximity and relatively robust population, we hypothesized that the LIS and Connecticut River aggregations were almost solely derived from the Hudson River. We used microsatellite nuclear DNA analysis at 11 loci and mitochondrial DNA control region sequence analyses to estimate the relative contributions of nine Atlantic sturgeon populations and the five DPS to these aggregations using individual-based assignment tests and mixed-stock analysis. From 64 to 73 % of specimens from LIS were estimated to be of Hudson origin. Similarly, 66–76 % of specimens from the Connecticut River were of Hudson origin. However, moderate numbers of specimens were detected from distant spawning populations in the southeastern DPS and from two populations once thought to be extirpated or nearly so, the James River (6–7.3 %), and the Delaware River (7.6–12 %). Additionally, specimens were detected from all five DPS in both the LIS and Connecticut River collections. These results highlight the difficulty of evaluating the status of individual Atlantic sturgeon populations because of the propensity of subadults and adults to migrate for extended duration to distant sites where they may be vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances.     

Assessment of chemical dispersant effectiveness in a wave tank under regular non-breaking and breaking wave conditions

Current chemical dispersant effectiveness tests for product selection are commonly performed with bench-scale testing apparatus. However, for the assessment of oil dispersant effectiveness under real sea state conditions, test protocols are required to have hydrodynamic conditions closer to the natural environment, including transport and dilution effects. To achieve this goal, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed and constructed a wave tank system to study chemical dispersant effectiveness under controlled mixing energy conditions (regular non-breaking, spilling breaking, and plunging breaking waves). Quantification of oil dispersant effectiveness was based on observed changes in dispersed oil concentrations and oil-droplet size distribution. The study results quantitatively demonstrated that total dispersed oil concentration and breakup kinetics of oil droplets in the water column were strongly dependent on the presence of chemical dispersants and the influence of breaking waves. These data on the effectiveness of dispersants as a function of sea state will have significant implications in the drafting of future operational guidelines for dispersant use at sea.     

The Stanley unconformity in Lake Huron basin: evidence for a climate-driven closed lowstand about 7900 <Superscript>14</Superscript>C BP,with similar implications for the Chippewa lowstand in Lake Michigan basin

J.L. Hough in 1962 recognized an erosional unconformity in the upper section of early postglacial lake sediments in northwestern Lake Huron. Low-level Lake Stanley was defined at 70 m below present water surface on the basis of this observation, and was inferred to follow the Main Algonquin highstand and Post-Algonquin lake phases about 10 ¹⁴C ka, a seminal contribution to the understanding of Great Lakes history. Lake Stanley was thought to have overflowed from the Huron basin through the Georgian Bay basin and the glacio-isostatically depressed North Bay outlet to Ottawa and St. Lawrence rivers. For this overflow to have occurred, Hough assumed that post-Algonquin glacial rebound was delayed until after the Lake Stanley phase. A re-examination of sediment stratigraphy in northwestern Lake Huron using seismic reflection and new core data corroborates the sedimentological evidence of Hough’s Stanley unconformity, but not its inferred chronology or the level of the associated lowstand. Erosion of previously deposited sediment, causing the gap in the sediment sequence down to 70 m present depth, is attributed to wave erosion in the shoreface of the Lake Stanley lowstand. Allowing for non-deposition of muddy sediment in the upper 20 m approximately of water depth as occurs in the present Great Lakes, the inferred water level of the Stanley lowstand is repositioned at 50 m below present in northwestern Lake Huron. The age of this lowstand is about 7.9 ± 0.3¹⁴C ka, determined from the inferred ¹⁴C age of the unconformity by radiocarbon-dated geomagnetic secular variation in six new cores. This relatively young age shows that the lowstand defined by Hough’s Stanley unconformity is the late Lake Stanley phase of the northern Huron basin, youngest of three lowstands following the Algonquin lake phases. Reconstruction of uplift histories for lake level and outlets shows that late Lake Stanley was about 25–30 m below the North Bay outlet, and about 10 m below the sill of the Huron basin. The late Stanley lowstand was hydrologically closed, consistent with independent evidence for dry regional climate at this time. A similar analysis of the Chippewa unconformity shows that the Lake Michigan basin also hosted a hydrologically closed lowstand, late Lake Chippewa. This phase of closed lowstands is new to the geological history of the Great Lakes. This is the ninth in a series of ten papers published in this special issue of Journal of Paleolimnology. These papers were presented at the 47th Annual Meeting of the International Association for Great Lakes Research (2004), held at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. P.F. Karrow and C.F.M Lewis were guest editors of this special issue.