气候突变的子波分析

对气候突变的研究，以往多采用统计方法．本文强调气候是多尺度、多层次的这一观点，并用子波变换方法分析了北半球平均温度资料，进一步证实了１９２０年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低层次（１０１年尺度，１００年尺度）上的突变点的年代．分析结果较为客观并符合实际．     

青海都兰察汗乌苏地区银、铅等多金属矿找矿前景分析

都兰县察汗乌苏地区位于柴达木盆地东南缘,地处东昆仑多金属成矿带中东部.区内地质构造复杂,岩浆活动频繁,变质作用强烈,区域Pb、Ag化探异常分布集中,铁、铜、铅、锌矿产分布密集,特别是鄂拉山组陆相火山岩系是青海省唯一发现含独立银矿的地层,因此评价研究本区出现的高、大、全Ag、Pb异常特征及其成矿规律,对本区寻找接触交代型银多金属矿具有十分重要的意义.     

探测城市断裂活动性的浅层地震方法技术

用地震方法探测城市直下型活动断裂是一种不可替代的勘探技术,对于不同的探测深度需采用不同的排列长度。试验研究结果表明,小道间距接收不但有助于准确确定断裂的空间位置,而且也有助于确定基岩断裂上断点的埋深,即采用小道间距接收,有利于综合提高地震记录的纵横向分辨率。结合北京夏垫活断裂的浅层反射地震探测结果,讨论了采用浅层反射地震技术探测城市活断层应注意的一些问题。     

Estimation of characteristic parameters in region-time-length algorithm and its application

On the basis of gap's temporal-spatial characteristics in and around source area before an earthquake, we propose a method to estimate characteristic parameters (characteristic distance and time) in the region-time-length (RTL) algorithm and introduce the method of correlation coefficient developed by some authors in 2006 to determine the characteristic parameters. The anomalous seismic activities before four moderately strong earthquakes occurred in the northwestern and southwestern China in recent years are studied by the two methods. The results show that the method to estimate characteristic parameters advanced in this paper is a simple one, which possesses a physical meaning and is well applicable to the four moderately strong earthquakes studied.     

孟连7.3级强震短临预报研究--应用"层次法"的模拟预测

孟连7.3 级大震前有中强地震发生,这对大震的地点预报十分有利,但中、强震发生后是否一定有大震发生,这仍然是预报难题.其次,中、强震发生后,究竟相隔多长时间后发生大震,这是另一个预报难题.以孟连地震作为震例,用"层次法"对上述二个问题作出回答.最后由"层次法"得到孟连地震的预报参数为:震中22°N,99°E;MX 7 .3;时间1995年7月12日.预测参数与实际地震参数一致.     

Molodensky-Poisson�˺���Ӧ���������쳣�������ط���

???????Poisson???????Molodensky-Poisson?????????????????????Ч??????????????????????????????ε??????????????Molodensky-Poisson?????????????????????????????????3 km???????????0.5°?????????????1 mGal??????|????????1°????????????10 μGal???????????????1 cm??????????????     

黄河下游影响区城镇化-生态和谐机制与耦合协调发展分析

本文通过和谐度与耦合度双重评价,利用和谐度模型、耦合协调度模型及协调发展度模型,对黄河下游影响区2005—2018年城镇化与生态环境耦合水平在时空上的变化规律进行研究。结果表明：①研究区域耦合水平在整体上呈现先下降后升高的变化规律,耦合关系在阶段上属于由磨合向高水平耦合过渡的阶段,城镇化发展多滞后于生态环境。②黄河下游影响区形成了以郑州和济南为核心的高耦合程度聚集区,且表现出先聚集后辐射扩散的空间聚集与溢出效应。③当前研究区城镇经济发展对耦合水平的贡献较大,现阶段城镇发展对生态环境的综合影响无明显负向倾向。     

Representation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in CAMS-CSM

The Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) has a significant impact on global weather and climate and can be used as a predictability resource in extended-term forecasting. We evaluate the ability of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM) to represent the MJO by using the diagnostic method proposed by the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program(CLIVAR) MJO Working Group(MJOWG). In general,the model simulates some major characteristics of MJO well, such as the seasonality characteristics and geographical dependence, the intensity of intraseasonal variability(ISV), dominant periodicity, propagation characteristics, coherence between outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) and wind, and life cycle of MJO signals. However, there are a few biases in the model when compared with observational/reanalyzed data. These include an overestimate of precipitation in the convergence zone of the North and South Pacific, a slightly weaker eastward propagation, and a shift in the dominant periodicity toward lower frequencies with slower speeds of eastward propagation. The model gives a poor simulation of the northward propagation of MJO in summer and shows less coherence between the MJO convection and wind. The role of moistening in the planetary boundary layer(PBL) in the eastward/northward propagation of MJO was also explored. An accurate representation of the vertical titling structure of moisture anomalies in CAMS-CSM leads to moistening of the PBL ahead of convection, which accounts for the eastward/northward propagation of MJO. Poor simulation of the vertical structure of the wind and moisture anomalies in the western Pacific leads to a poor simulation of the northward propagation of MJO in this area. Budget analysis of the PBL integral moisture anomalies shows that the model gives a good simulation of the moisture charging process ahead of MJO convection and that the zonal advection of moisture convergence term has a primary role in the detour of MJO over the Maritime Continent.     

若尔盖盆地黄河第一湾河岸沉积地层序列及其成因研究

经过在若尔盖盆地进行全面野外考察,在黄河第一弯岸边发现了沉积序列清晰的、具有代表性的完整沉积地层剖面。通过沉积学和地层学特征和沉积相的观测分析,结合实验室粒度分析、数据处理和测年断代,其结果表明：该剖面底部蓝灰色古湖相沉积层反映出盆地内部在OSL年龄35 ka之前为较深的湖泊。其上覆盖的风沙与泥炭互层,反映出在该区域湖水消失之后,在30 ka之前古湖底出现泥炭沼泽,同时风沙作用盛行。而浊黄橙色古洪水沉积层（OFD1）则反映出在30~27 ka之间,曾经有来自于黄河源区流域的规模巨大的洪水进入若尔盖盆地,在古湖底泛滥并且将其携带的分选良好的细沙与粉沙质泥沙堆积下来。该剖面中部厚度达5~7 m的河漫滩-风沙层,沿着河岸追索,则可见其表现为高低起伏的古沙丘。这表明在末次冰期盛期和冰消期,气候干旱寒冷,黄河已经下切形成其河槽,其河漫滩沉积物被强劲的风力吹扬,形成连绵起伏的沙丘。该层之上所覆盖的浊黄橙色古洪水沉积层（OFD2）,则反映出在全新世初期9.86~8.28 ka之间,来自于黄河源区流域的大洪水再次进入盆地,在黄河第一湾两岸的古湖底沉积了分选良好的细沙质与粉沙质的泥沙。到了全新世中期后,若尔盖盆地风沙作用依然盛行,黄河河槽深切,第一湾两岸接受沙尘暴沉积。在全新世中期的相对温暖湿润气候条件之下,沙尘暴沉积物被改造为亚高山草甸黑土类土壤,成熟度极高。到了全新世晚期以来,风沙作用与沙尘暴沉积过程持续,沙尘暴沉积物也被改造为亚高山草甸黑土层。本文研究对于深入理解黄河源区末次冰期以来环境变化与地表过程演变,以及晚更新世以来的气候水文变化规律具有重要的科学意义。