The problem of “naturally”-occurring drought

Naturally-occurring drought is defined here to be drought arising from the nonlinear interactions which are an inherent part of the dynamics of the climatic system. As such it has no specific excitation mechanism, in contrast to forced drought where sea surface temperature anomalies are frequently cited as an important precursor. The essential difference between these two types of drought is that the former is very local and isolated spatially, whereas the latter is widespread and coherent. Observations for Australia are used to illustrate these points. Results are given for a 10-year general circulation model integration which clearly simulated naturally occurring drought and highlighted its unique characteristics. Multi-annual time series for specific geographical regions in the model show that no differences in monthly mean values of relative humidity or zonal and meridional fluxes of moisture were apparent for years with or without drought. More detailed analysis indicated that rather small differences exist in atmospheric temperatures and absolute humidities between drought and nondrought years which are important factors in determining the onset of precipitation in the model.Overall the analysis emphasises the subtlety of the processes involved. These processes, however, were able to produce completely different precipitation histories from one year to the next at a given point. The smallness of the changes involved in the atmospheric processes indicates that the nonlinearities were able to modulate conditions at a given point within an existing synoptic system only slightly, rather than initiate a new climatic regime in drought years. The problem of naturally-occurring drought, of course, is that it is intrinsically unpredictable.     

Galactic Dynamo and Spiral Arms - 3D MHD Simulations

In the present project we investigate the evolution of a three-dimensional (3D), large-scale galactic magnetic field under the influence of gas flows in spiral arms and in the presence of dynamo action. Our principal goal is to check how the dynamical evolution of gaseous spiral arms affects the global magnetic field structure and to what extent our models could explain the observed spiral patterns of polarization B-vectors in nearby galaxies. A two-step scheme is used: the N-body simulations of a two-component, self-gravitating disk provide the time-dependent velocity fields which are then used as the input to solve the mean-field dynamo equations. We found that the magnetic field is directly influenced by large-scale non-axisymmetric density wave flows yielding the magnetic field locally well-aligned with gaseous spiral arms in a manner similar to that discussed already by Otmianowska-Mazur et al. 1997. However, an additional field amplification, introduced by a non-zero -term in the dynamo equations, is required to cause a systematic increase of magnetic energy density against the diffusive losses. Our simulated magnetic fields are also used to construct the models of a high-frequency (Faraday rotation-free) polarized radio emission accounting for effects of projection and limited resolution, thus suitable for direct comparisons with observations.     

Impact of user parameters in inversion velocity analysis

Migration velocity analysis is a method devoted to the evaluation of both reflectivity and background velocity models, associated with the high and low wavenumber components of the model, respectively. Inversion velocity analysis is one of its improved versions, leading to more stable background velocity updates. Still, the impact of the user parameters should be understood for an optimal update of the background velocity. We show that a sign reversal of the background velocity gradient could occur when the selected surface offset range or the space lag range is too small. We derive the theoretical limits and check their consistency through simulations in a simple model with a single interface. These guidelines determine the necessary ranges of surface offsets and space lags for a proper update of the background velocity model. We discuss their applicability on the Marmousi model. Artefacts in the retrieved background velocity model are observed when the guidelines are not satisfied.     

Triassic warm subduction in northeast Turkey: Evidence from the Ağvanis metamorphic rocks

Within the Tethyan realm, data for the subduction history of the Permo–Triassic Tethys in the form of accretionary complexes are scarce, coming mainly from northwest Turkey and Tibet. Herein we present field geological, petrological and geochronological data on a Triassic accretionary complex, the A?vanis metamorphic rocks, from northeast Turkey. The A?vanis metamorphic rocks form a SSE–NNW trending lozenge‐shaped horst, ～20 km long and ～6 km across, bounded by the strands of the active North Anatolian Fault close to the collision zone between the Eastern Pontides and the Menderes–Taurus Block. The rocks consist mainly of greenschist‐ to epidote‐amphibolite‐facies metabasite, phyllite, marble and minor metachert and serpentinite, interpreted as a metamorphic accretionary complex based on the oceanic rock types and ocean island basaltic, mid‐ocean ridge basaltic and island‐arc tholeiitic affinities of the metabasites. This rock assemblage was intruded by stocks and dikes of Early Eocene quartz diorite, leucogranodiorite and dacite porphyry. Metamorphic conditions are estimated to be 470–540°C and ～0.60–0.90 GPa. Stepwise ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of phengite–muscovite separates sampled outside the contact metamorphic aureoles yielded steadily increasing age spectra with the highest incremental stage corresponding to age values ranging from ～180 to 209 Ma, suggesting that the metamorphism occurred at ≥ 209 Ma. Thus, the A?vanis metamorphic rocks represent the vestiges of the Late Triassic or slightly older subduction in northeast Turkey. Estimated P–T conditions indicate higher temperatures than those predicted by steady state thermal models for average subduction zones, and can best be accounted for by a hot subduction zone, similar to the present‐day Cascadia. Contact metamorphic mineral assemblages around an Early Eocene quartz diorite stock, on the other hand, suggest that the present‐day erosion level was at depths of ～14 km during the Early Eocene, indicative of reburial of the metamorphic rocks. Partial disturbance of white‐mica Ar–Ar age spectra was probably caused by the reburial coupled with heat input by igneous activity, which is probably related to thrusting due to the continental collision between Eastern Pontides and the Menderes–Taurus Block.     

March 1986 eruptive episodes at Piton de la Fournaise volcano (Reunion Island)

From May 1985 to April 1986 five discrete eruptions have occurred at Piton de la Fournaise volcano. On March the 17th, a sixth episode began with four distinct stages. They took place along the southeast rift zone of the volcano, from the summit to the sea coast. It was the first rift zone eruption in the south since 1800 A.D. and the first ever monitored at Piton de la Fournaise volcano.Three fissural vents opened at decreasing altitude emitting about 12 to 15 × 10⁶ m³ of olivine basalts between 19th March and 1st April. Strong seismic activity was accompanied by deformation of the summit area, and large-scale variations of the magnetic field. A summital event characterized the end of the flank activity with collapse of a new pit-crater and outflow of small amounts of degassed aphyric basalt.     

Groundwater resources evaluation case study via discrete fracture flow modeling

The Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) is preparing to upgrade State Route 260 between Payson and Heber. It is estimated that a total of about one million cubic meters of water will be required for embankment construction during a period of about 84 months to upgrade the first 33.8 km of the highway. ADOT is investigating various sources of construction water for use in the highway improvement project, including groundwater resources along the highway corridor. A region known as the RV site, underlain by fractured granite, is located 12.9 km east of Payson. The site includes three springs, a creek and several wells. Several boreholes and observation wells were made to a maximum depth of 157 m to obtain fracture data and to conduct pumping tests with monitoring. Fracture data recorded by acoustic televiewer logs were used to build a fracture network model for the rock mass. Results of a 24-hour and a 7-day pumping tests were used to calibrate hydraulic parameters of a finite element discrete fracture fluid flow model considering the region as a heterogeneous, anisotropic, fractured medium. A 38-day multi-well pumping test was used to validate the calibrated numerical model. The calibrated model showed the capability to provide reasonably accurate predictions for new pumping tests conducted in the same well field. The validated model was then used to simulate pumping exceeding a 7 year period under different scenarios incorporating different sets of boundary conditions and different pumping rates at multi-wells, with and without recharge, to evaluate the yield of the aquifer and to assess the effect of long-term pumping on the environment. The results indicated that (a) the combined yield of the wells in the RV site is sufficient to meet the water demand for the ADOT highway project and (b) the water levels in the well field would decline between 3.0 and 7.6 m after one year of pumping and by 12.2 to over 30.5 m during the life of the project.     

Thermal modelling of magmatic intrusions in the Gjallar Ridge, Norwegian Sea: implications for vitrinite reflectance and hydrocarbon maturation

Extensive magmatic activity took place in the Vøring Basin, offshore Norway, related to the Early Cenozoic rifting. The break‐up of the North‐Atlantic at the Palaeocene–Eocene transition induced strong volcanism. There are numerous magmatic sills below 3 km depth in the area. They are predominantly layer parallel and thin compared with their lateral extent. Igneous intrusions, sills and dykes affected the temperature history, and thus need to be taken into account in petroleum prospect analysis. We have calculated the temperature and maturity effects in the sedimentary layers in the Gjallar area associated with the emplacement of single sill and sill complexes. A 120‐m‐thick sill produces a theoretical vitrinite reflectance (%R₀) 0.8% higher than normal at a distance of 100 m from the sill. Vitrinite reflectance changes caused by a swarm of seven sills varying from 8 to 80 m in thickness were calculated. It is shown that the calculated thermal profile can account for the observed shift in vitrinite reflectance in the well. A two‐dimensional section crossing the Gjallar Ridge, consisting of numerous magmatic intrusions, is also modelled. The modelled geological development and temperature history over the profile show that there are significant maturation effects in the interval under investigation. Based on this work, the sill swarm observed in the area could more than double the fraction of the kerogen that has been transformed to petroleum at the (present) depth of 4 km.     

Reconstruction of sea surface dimethylsulfide in the North Pacific during 1970s to 2000s

We proposed an empirical equation of sea surface dimethylsulfide (DMS, nM) using sea surface temperature (SST, K), sea surface nitrate (SSN, μM) and latitude (L, °N) to reconstruct the sea surface flux of DMS over the North Pacific between 25°N and 55°N: ln DMS = 0.06346 · SST − 0.1210 · SSN − 14.11 · cos(L) − 6.278 (R² = 0.63, p < 0.0001). Applying our algorithm to climatological hydrographic data in the North Pacific, we reconstructed the climatological distributions of DMS and its flux between 25 °N and 55 °N. DMS generally increased eastward and northward, and DMS in the northeastern region became to 2–5 times as large as that in the southwestern region. DMS in the later half of the year was 2–4 times as large as that in the first half of the year. Moreover, applying our algorithm to hydrographic time series datasets in the western North Pacific from 1971 to 2000, we found that DMS in the last three decades has shown linear increasing trends of 0.03 ± 0.01 nM year^− 1 in the subpolar region, and 0.01 ± 0.001 nM year^− 1 in the subtropical region, indicating that the annual flux of DMS from sea to air has increased by 1.9–4.8 μmol m^− 2 year^− 1. The linear increase was consistent with the annual rate of increase of 1% of the climatological averaged flux in the western North Pacific in the last three decades.     

Isotopic Composition of Strontium in Rocks of the Fen Alkaline Complex, South Norway

The isotopic composition of Sr and the abundances of Rb andSr have been determined in the alkaline rocks of the Fen Complex,South Norway. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁸Sr ratios range from as low as 0.703in carbonatite (s?vite) to as high as 0.710 in rauhaugite. Thewhole rock analyses do not plot on a Nicolaysen diagram as anisochron. Calculation of the initial isotopic composition ofSr in the rocks at the time of intrusion of the complex, approximately550 m.y. ago, shows that the rocks are not simply related asthe differentiation products of a single magma, since they donot possess similar initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. The lowest initialratio is seen in the s?vites and it is concluded that this rockrepresents the magma from which the other rocks of the complexwere derived. Production of hybrid rocks by bulk assimilationof granite gneiss in carbonatite is inadequate to account forthe observed Rb/Sr ratios. It is envisaged that selective concentrationof granitic Sr of high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio together with loss orgain of variable amounts of Rb has taken place. The processis closely connected with the fenitization observed at the marginsof the complex and is of a metasomatic nature. Thus, the genesisof rocks of the melteigite-ijolite-urtite series may be consideredto be a rheomorphic process. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios observed inr?dberg and rauhaugite can be explained in terms of the metasomaticalteration of damtjernite.