Effect of altered Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet cover on the climate of the GENESIS general circulation model

Previous studies have examined the effect of reduced Arctic sea ice cover on the circulation of climate models. Generally, the response is restricted to high northern latitudes. Here we examine a variant on those simulations, specifying both reduced Arctic sea ice cover and no Greenland ice sheet. The GENESIS general circulation model is used in these experiments. As in earlier studies, we find the effect limited primarily to the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, being greater in winter than in summer. New results reported herein involve: (1) in winter reduced Arctic ice cover has a significantly greater effect than reduced Greenland ice cover; (2) reduced ice cover had little effect on location of the winter freezing line over North America and Eurasia; (3) removal of ice caused a 30–50% increase in precipitation in high northern latitudes; however there were no significant effects elsewhere. This result does not support the hypothesis that past changes in Arctic ice cover were responsible for significant changes in area of tropical rainforests; (4) there is a peculiar surface pressure anomaly that extends into the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. This anomaly may be a spurious artifact of the effect of the removed Greenland ice sheet on the spherical harmonic expansion terms in the model. These sensitivity experiments should serve as a useful frame of reference for future Pliocene simulations with a more complete set of altered boundary conditions.     

Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA

To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics.     

Effect of obstacles on the rate of reconnection of magnetic field lines

Further results of a laboratory magnetic field line reconnection experiment are presented. In particular, it is found that the reconnection rate can be slowed by placing solid obstacles to impede the outflow of plasma from an x-type magnetic neutral point. Without the obstacles the reconnection rate is faster and more impulsive. The fastest reconnection event has strong similarities to solar flares and geomagnetic substorms. It is suggested that more stationary features of solar activity such as prominences may be the result of reconnection slowed by obstacles such as the photosphere.     

Relevance of peat draining rivers in central Sumatra for the riverine input of dissolved organic carbon into the ocean

Sources and discharges of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the central Sumatran river Siak were studied. DOC concentrations in the Siak ranged between 560 and 2594 μmol l⁻¹ and peak out after its confluence with the river Mandau. The Mandau drains part of the central Sumatran peatlands and can be characterized as a typical blackwater river due to its high DOC concentration, its dark brown-coloured, acidic water (pH 4.4–4.7) and its low concentration of total suspended matter (12–41 mg l⁻¹). The Mandau supplies about half of the DOC that enters the Siak Estuary where it mixes conservatively with ocean water. The DOC input from the Siak into the ocean was estimated to be 0.3 Tg C yr⁻¹. Extrapolated to entire Indonesia the data suggest a total Indonesian DOC export of 21 Tg yr⁻¹ representing 10% of the global riverine DOC input into the ocean.     

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities.     

Flux linkages of bipolar sunspot groups: A computer study

Past studies of the structure of solar magnetic fields have used magnetograph data to compute selected field lines for comparison with the morphology of structures seen in various spectral wavelengths. While those analyses examine one of the integral properties of magnetic fields (field lines), they are not complete since they fail to determine the other important integral property: the boundaries of the flux of field lines of given connectivity. In the present analysis we determine such a system of boundaries, called separatrices, for the current free field of two p-f spot pairs so as to exhibit the line of self-intersection, called the separator. The analysis is compared with previous analytical work. These computer results, confirming earlier studies carried out using iron fillings, show that the separatrix has the form of two intersecting ovoids, defining four flux cells. New features which have emerged from this study include the observation that the projections of the separatrix in a plane perpendicular to the separator at its highest point do not intersect at 90° as has been widely believed, but rather closer to 60° in the case studied. The separator is very nearly circular over most of its length. The two neutral points (B = 0) which appear at the photospheric ends of the separator have the mixed radial-hyperbolic form as expected, a feature requiring every field line lying on the separatrix to connect with at least one of the two neutral points. The rotation of line direction with height (shear) is graphically illustrated in the potential field case studied here. We also exhibit a magnetic arcade.     

Laboratory solar flare experiments

Several laboratory experiments on magnetic field line reconnection are briefly reviewed. Emphasis is placed on the double inverse pinch device (DIPD) in which magnetic flux is built up during a quiescent reconnection phase and then abruptly transferred during an impulsive reconnection phase. Scaling estimates show that this impulsive phase corresponds to a solar release of 10³⁰ ergs in 10² seconds with the production of GeV potentials. The trigger for the impulsive flare is a conduction mode instability (ion-acoustic) which abruptly changes the resistance of the neutral point region when the reconnection current density reaches a critical value.Some results are presented from another reconnection device which has exactly antiparallel fields at the boundaries. This flat plate device develops one x-type neutral point rather than tearing into many neutral points. The reconnection rate is more quiescent than in the DIPD. A mild conduction mode instability occurs. The results suggest that regions with flattened boundary fields may not be as conducive to flares as regions with more curved fields.     

A comparison of Martian albedo features with topography

Martian albedo features photographed from the Earth are compared with the topography observed by Mariner 9. We present three Lambert azimuthal equal-area charts prepared to facilitate the comparison. No correlation between large-scale albedos and topography can be generalized, but several different kinds of relationships seem to be indicated in particular regions. Examples of these are discussed.     

Chondrichthyans as an umbrella species-complex for conserving South African biodiversity

Conservation surrogates, such as umbrella and flagship species, could help focus South Africa’s limited resources for research and management and enhance the conservation gains from marine protected areas (MPAs). Sharks, rays and chimaeras (Chondrichthyes), which are charismatic and ecologically diverse, are potential umbrella candidates, but tests of the ecological suitability of putative marine umbrella species are lacking. Using baited remote underwater video in and around two MPAs in the Western Cape Province, we assessed the potential of chondrichthyans as an umbrella species-complex by quantifying the relationships and co-occurrence patterns between chondrichthyan abundance and diversity and those of other taxa (primarily teleosts and crustaceans). Sites with abundant chondrichthyans, with catsharks or large sharks (>1 m total length), all had significantly greater abundance and diversity of these other taxa, and associations with species of commercial and conservation interest (e.g. roman Chrysoblephus laticeps). Endemic scyliorhinids (notably dark catshark Haploblepharus pictus) and the broadnose sevengill shark Notorynchus cepedianus also had many strong positive co-occurrences (28% and 21% of interactions, respectively). The puffadder catshark H. edwardsii had the highest centrality of any species, denoting its high connectedness to other taxa. Overall, chondrichthyans, especially the dark and puffadder catsharks and the broadnose sevengill shark, show strong potential as an umbrella species-complex in South Africa.     

Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880–2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.