雷暴路径在雷击风险评估中的应用初探

落雷的强度、密度及其时空分布、雷暴路径是反映某一区域雷电活动规律的主要内容,目前对雷暴路径的研究还较少,通过分析得出:地面物体遭雷击的概率与雷暴路径有关,位于雷暴路径上风方的物体更易受雷击,在实际防雷工作中,要考虑雷暴路径对雷击点的影响,而不单是几何模型的关系.对位置因子的确定,应结合雷暴路径的因素,考虑周围物体的影响,适当增加或降低雷击风险评估标准中给予的参考值.此外,本文认为绕击现象并非仅与雷电流强度有关,还与雷暴路径密切相关.     

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation.     

Ground water modeling applications using the analytic element method

Though powerful and easy to use, applications of the analytic element method are not as widespread as finite-difference or finite-element models due in part to their relative youth. Although reviews that focus primarily on the mathematical development of the method have appeared in the literature, a systematic review of applications of the method is not available. An overview of the general types of applications of analytic elements in ground water modeling is provided in this paper. While not fully encompassing, the applications described here cover areas where the method has been historically applied (regional, two-dimensional steady-state models, analyses of ground water-surface water interaction, quick analyses and screening models, wellhead protection studies) as well as more recent applications (grid sensitivity analyses, estimating effective conductivity and dispersion in highly heterogeneous systems). The review of applications also illustrates areas where more method development is needed (three-dimensional and transient simulations).     

Nitrogen isotope ratios in estuarine biota collected along a nutrient gradient in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA

Stable nitrogen isotope ratios were used to study the incorporation of anthropogenically-derived nitrogen into the food webs of salt marsh systems along a contamination gradient in Narragansett Bay. Nitrogen isotope ratios (delta(15)N) were measured in six estuarine species collected from three marshes along this gradient, monthly from June to October between 1997 and 1999. A significant decrease in delta(15)N was found with distance along the estuary for four of the six species. Significant differences were found among monthly isotope ratios for some species. Nitrogen isotope ratios in sea lettuce (Ulva lactuca) increased during the summer season with highest delta(15)N values measured during September and October. This trend was most pronounced at the station receiving the highest nutrient inputs. Elevated delta(15)N values at this station appeared to correlate with seawater ammonia/nitrate concentration ratios. The temporal variations in delta(15)N suggest that care should be taken in species selection and the design of sampling schemes of studies using delta(15)N for monitoring anthropogenic nutrients in aquatic systems. Sampling programs designed to determine long-term trends should consider species that do not show rapid fluctuations in isotope ratios. The mud snail, Nassarius obsoletus, responded this way in the present study. Studies designed to measure short-term changes should include species such as U. lactuca, which rapidly respond to isotope changes. The results from this study also help to establish a baseline for nitrogen isotope values in Narragansett Bay. This information can be used to monitor future trends in nitrogen inputs to this estuary.     

The ECOMAN project: A novel approach to defining sustainable ecosystem function

The ECOMAN was initiated in 2001 by the University of Plymouth, UK, Plymouth Marine Laboratory and the Department of the Environment, Fisheries and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) to address the need for more pragmatic assessment techniques linking environmental degradation with its causes. The primary aim of the project was to develop an evidence-based approach in which suites of easy-to-use, cost-effective and environmentally valid biological responses (biomarkers) could be used together to assess the health of coastal systems through the general condition of individuals. A range of sub-lethal endpoints, chosen to reflect successive levels of biological organisation (molecular, cellular, physiological), was evaluated in common coastal organisms showing different feeding types (filter feeding, grazing, predation) and habitat requirements (estuary, rocky shore). Initially, the suite of biomarkers was used in laboratory studies to determine the relative sensitivities of key species within different functional groups to common contaminants. These results were then validated in field studies performed in a range of ecosystems exhibiting different degrees/signatures of contamination. Here, an example is provided of a field study in the Humber Estuary, UK, which illustrates how multivariate statistical analysis can be used to identify patterns of response to discriminate between contaminated and clean sites. The use of a holistic, integrated approach of this kind is advocated as a practical means of assessing the impact of chemical contamination on organismal health and of ranking the status of marine ecosystems.     

加权多变量灰色模型在变形监测中的应用

在变形监测过程中,监测因子较多,难以对监测因子进行合理的取舍。首先利用灰关联度分析方法,将监测因子根据灰关联度进行关联排序,为合理选择监测因子提供理论依据;然后,利用得到的关联度进行平滑处理,并将其作为权值建立加权多变量灰色模型,推广了传统的多变量灰色模型,提高了预测精度;最后,以南充水库土石坝沉降数据为例,验证了模型的正确性。算例结果表明,加权多变量灰色模型的平均相对误差比传统灰色模型小,模型精度也比传统模型高。     

噪声源的时空分布及其对噪声互相关函数的影响——以ChinArray二期数据为例

噪声源的空间分布和季节变化会对噪声互相关函数中的信号产生一定影响.本文选取了 ChinArrry二期台阵南部的 322 个宽频带地震台,利用其 2013年9 月至 2016年6 月的垂直分量连续记录计算了台站间的互相关函数,进而通过背景噪声能量流的方法,分析了周期频段4～8 s,8～12 s和 12～20 s的噪声能量随时间的演化规律.结果表明,在不同频段,背景噪声的强度及优势来源方向均具明显的季节变化,且不同周期频段的噪声能量变化规律有所差异.总体而言,噪声能量在北半球冬季较强,夏季较弱,与全球海洋活动的季节性变化一致,能量优势来源方向也与全球海浪波高分布相符.同时,在 10～20 s频段范围内,噪声互相关函数中存在较强的异常信号.该信号在环形台阵路径上的到时呈现随方位角的规律变化,且冬季较强,夏季较弱.基于走时的分析表明,该信号是由大西洋北部的一个强噪声源激发产生的.在特定路径上,该信号可能对频散提取产生干扰.研究表明,噪声源分布的不均匀性以及季节变化会对噪声互相关函数中信号的细节形态产生影响,进而影响格林函数的收敛程度,相关精细化研究应对噪声源的特性予以关注.     

基于COSI-Corr技术的龙羊峡库区1987—2019年风沙输移特征及潜在入库量估算

风沙活动威胁着龙羊峡水库的安全运营,查清沙害来源和入库量对于防治水患和沙害具有重要意义。基于1987、1995、2003、2013、2019年的Landsat卫星影像,利用COSI-Corr技术监测了龙羊峡库区不同时空的沙丘移动特征,并重新评估库区近32 a的潜在风沙入库量。结果显示：（1）1987—2019年龙羊峡库区沙丘平均移动速率为5.81 m·a^-1,呈先加速（1987—2003年）后减速（2003—2013年）再加速（2013—2019年）趋势;沙丘移动方向在132.81°—165.82°范围内,与该区主风向一致。（2）近32 a向龙羊峡水库输送的潜在风沙量可达7.82×10⁷ m3（1.20×10⁸ t）。上风向塔拉滩潜在输送量为7.38×10⁷ m3（1.14×10⁸ t）,下风向木格滩仅贡献了0.44×10⁷ m3（0.68×10⁷ t）。（3）库区内风沙输移受风况、气候、植被等多种因素的影响,在未来全球变暖条件下,青藏高原的风沙活动将会持续发展,风沙入库量的长期累计效应将对水库安全构成严重威胁,必须引起足够重视。     

对流移入杭州湾后飑线发展机制分析

为加深对杭州湾影响下飑线维持机制的理解,利用多普勒天气雷达、常规和加密观测资料以及NCEP GFS资料,分析了2014年7月27日浙北飑线成因,并重点探讨了此次飑线过程中对流从北岸和南岸移入杭州湾的演变过程及对飑线整体发展的作用。分析表明:南北向辐合线触发新的雷暴单体生成及中等强度的深层垂直风切变,是此次飑线生成和发展的关键环境条件;飑线中对流从南北两岸移入杭州湾后强度均加强,使得飑线得到更好的维持发展;杭州湾上更好的水汽和更强不稳定能量条件,使从北岸移入杭州湾的对流单体加强并连接苏南、浙北两条线状对流,这是进而使得飑线持续发展的重要原因;杭州湾表面与陆地相当的温度和湿度,以及海上较强的垂直风切变,使南岸入海对流强度维持,并在地面冷池和后侧入流的共同影响下发展成弓形回波,这也是飑线维持的重要因素。