Improving a regional model using reduced complexity and parameter estimation

The availability of powerful desktop computers and graphical user interfaces for ground water flow models makes possible the construction of ever more complex models. A proposed copper-zinc sulfide mine in northern Wisconsin offers a unique case in which the same hydrologic system has been modeled using a variety of techniques covering a wide range of sophistication and complexity. Early in the permitting process, simple numerical models were used to evaluate the necessary amount of water to be pumped from the mine, reductions in streamflow, and the drawdowns in the regional aquifer. More complex models have subsequently been used in an attempt to refine the predictions. Even after so much modeling effort, questions regarding the accuracy and reliability of the predictions remain. We have performed a new analysis of the proposed mine using the two-dimensional analytic element code GFLOW coupled with the nonlinear parameter estimation code UCODE. The new model is parsimonious, containing fewer than 10 parameters, and covers a region several times larger in areal extent than any of the previous models. The model demonstrates the suitability of analytic element codes for use with parameter estimation codes. The simplified model results are similar to the more complex models; predicted mine inflows and UCODE-derived 95% confidence intervals are consistent with the previous predictions. More important, the large areal extent of the model allowed us to examine hydrological features not included in the previous models, resulting in new insights about the effects that far-field boundary conditions can have on near-field model calibration and parameterization. In this case, the addition of surface water runoff into a lake in the headwaters of a stream while holding recharge constant moved a regional ground watershed divide and resulted in some of the added water being captured by the adjoining basin. Finally, a simple analytical solution was used to clarify the GFLOW model's prediction that, for a model that is properly calibrated for heads, regional drawdowns are relatively unaffected by the choice of aquifer properties, but that mine inflows are strongly affected. Paradoxically, by reducing model complexity, we have increased the understanding gained from the modeling effort.     

Ground water discharge and nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico

Ground water samples (37 to 186 m depth) from Baldwin County, Alabama, are used to define the hydrogeology of Gulf coastal aquifers and calculate the subsurface discharge of nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico. The ground water flow and nitrate flux have been determined by linking ground water concentrations to 3H/3He and 4He age dates. The middle aquifer (A2) is an active flow system characterized by postnuclear tritium levels, moderate vertical velocities, and high nitrate concentrations. Ground water discharge could be an unaccounted source for nutrients in the coastal oceans. The aquifers annually discharge 1.1 +/- 0.01 x 10(8) moles of nitrate to the Gulf of Mexico, or 50% and 0.8% of the annual contributions from the Mobile-Alabama River System and the Mississippi River System, respectively. In southern Baldwin County, south of Loxley, increasing reliance on ground water in the deeper A3 aquifer requires accurate estimates of safe ground water withdrawal. This aquifer, partially confined by Pliocene clay above and Pensacola Clay below, is tritium dead and contains elevated 4He concentrations with no nitrate and estimated ground water ages from 100 to 7000 years. The isotopic composition and concentration of natural gas diffusing from the Pensacola Clay into the A3 aquifer aids in defining the deep ground water discharge. The highest 4He and CH4 concentrations are found only in the deepest sample (Gulf State Park), indicating that ground water flow into the Gulf of Mexico suppresses the natural gas plume. Using the shape of the CH4-He plume and the accumulation of 4He rate (2.2 +/- 0.8 microcc/kg/1000 years), we estimate the natural submarine discharge and the replenishment rate for the A3 aquifer.     

Evaluation of volatilization as a natural attenuation pathway for MTBE

Volatilization and diffusion through the unsaturated zone can be an important pathway for natural attenuation remediation of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) at gasoline spill sites. The significance of this pathway depends primarily on the distribution of immiscible product within the unsaturated zone and the relative magnitude of aqueous-phase advection (ground water recharge) to gaseous-phase diffusion. At a gasoline spill site in Laurel Bay, South Carolina, rates of MTBE volatilization from ground water downgradient from the source are estimated by analyzing the distribution of MTBE in the unsaturated zone above a solute plume. Volatilization rates of MTBE from ground water determined by transport modeling ranged from 0.0020 to 0.0042 g m(-2)/year, depending on the assumed rate of ground water recharge. Although diffusive conditions at the Laurel Bay site are favorable for volatilization, mass loss of MTBE is insignificant over the length (230 m) of the solute plume. Based on this analysis, significant volatilization of MTBE from ground water downgradient from source areas at other sites is not likely. In contrast, model results indicate that volatilization coupled with diffusion to the atmosphere could be a significant mass loss pathway for MTBE in source areas where residual product resides above the capillary zone. Although not documented, mass loss of MTBE at the Laurel Bay site due to volatilization and diffusion to the atmosphere are predicted to be two to three times greater than mass loading of MTBE to ground water due to dissolution and recharge. This result would imply that volatilization in the source zone may be the critical natural attenuation pathway for MTBE at gasoline spill sites, especially when considering capillary zone limitations on volatilization of MTBE from ground water and the relative recalcitrance of MTBE to biodegradation.     

The Absolute Abundance of Iron in the Solar Corona

We present a measurement of the abundance of Fe relative to H in the solar corona using a technique that differs from previous spectroscopic and solar wind measurements. Our method combines EUV line data from the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory with thermal bremsstrahlung radio data from the VLA. The coronal Fe abundance is derived by equating the thermal bremsstrahlung radio emission calculated from the EUV Fe line data to that observed with the VLA, treating the Fe/H abundance as the sole unknown. We apply this technique to a compact cool active region and find Fe&solm0;H=1.56x10-4, or about 4 times its value in the solar photosphere. Uncertainties in the CDS radiometric calibration, the VLA intensity measurements, the atomic parameters, and the assumptions made in the spectral analysis yield net uncertainties of approximately 20%. This result implies that low first ionization potential elements such as Fe are enhanced in the solar corona relative to photospheric values.