云南石林岩溶发育的古环境研究

以地质地貌景观调查、填图为基础,应用区域地层、古地磁资料、植物和孢粉化石、岩石与古土壤的化学成分(含稀土元素)、古土壤粘粒硅铝比值、钙华、溶蚀率等资料,研究了石林岩溶各主要演化阶段的古环境特点。石林地区能保留有早二叠世晚期至第四纪的石林岩溶是源于该区特殊古地理环境演变所控制的不同古环境下的岩溶过程差异。按照岩溶与环境的关系,可将石林岩溶演化的漫长过程分别划分出有利于石林岩溶发育与有利于石林岩溶保存的不同时期。石林地区的石林岩溶经历了古热带湿热海岸边缘、古热带行星风系干旱环境、半干旱山地湖泊环境与热带低海拔湿热气候到高原亚热带干湿季风气候演变。石林地区是研究漫长地质时期的不同环境下石林岩溶发育与保存的较好地点之一。      

营城组三段及二段岩性岩相和储层物性的精细刻画——基于标准剖面营三D1井全取心钻孔资料

于标准剖面新部署钻探营城组上部的全取心钻孔揭示,营城组三段厚205.70 m,营城组二段厚48.75 m（未钻穿）。主要岩石类型包括火山熔岩类、火山碎屑熔岩类、火山碎屑岩类、沉火山碎屑岩类和沉积岩。整个井段火山喷发划分为3个旋回10个期次。火山岩的有效储集空间包括4种11类,储集空间组合关系有4种,孔缝直接连通型是最好的储集空间类型。用岩心、薄片和物性测试划分出4种孔隙分布和7种孔隙结构类型,单峰偏粗态型和双峰态型孔隙分布最好。低排驱压力-粗孔喉为最好的孔隙结构类型。     

南亚高压次季节尺度东西振荡对我国长江流域降水及水汽输送的影响

使用常规资料及HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model)模式,分析了早夏和晚夏期间南亚高压次季节尺度异常偏东事件和异常偏西事件发生时,我国长江流域降水及水汽输送异常特征。结果表明:早夏期间当南亚高压异常东伸时,西太平洋副热带高压可西伸至我国东南沿岸,此时,降水正异常场主要位于我国东部地区,表现为江淮区域降水异常偏多;而晚夏期间当南亚高压异常东伸时,西太平洋副热带高压的西脊点更偏东,降水正异常区位置比早夏偏西,表现为四川盆地的降水异常偏多。早夏期间,与南亚高压异常偏西事件相比,南亚高压异常偏东事件有利于更多的水汽从南方的水汽源地输送到我国江淮区域,加上此时江淮流域存在异常上升运动,动力和水汽条件共同使得江淮流域降水偏多。晚夏四川盆地地区有类似的结论。     

Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.     

BCC-CSM2-MR模式对北极海冰和气候的模拟及预估

基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),使用新一代全球模式BCC-CSM2-MR的历史试验和未来共享社会经济路径(SSPs)数据,依据Hadley中心的海表面温度和海冰密集度数据及NCEP/NCAR I再分析资料,评估了BCC-CSM2-MR模式对北极海冰及北极气候的模拟能力,并对未来变化进行了预估.结果表明:BCC...     

湖北省夏季不同阶段强降水及其大气低频特征

利用1961-2014年湖北省68站逐日降水资料和美国国家海洋和大气管理局环流资料,对比分析了湖北省夏季梅雨期和盛夏期低频强降水事件的基本特征、大气环流形势和低频信号传播特征。结果表明:(1)湖北省夏季降水存在显著的准双周低频周期。(2)相较于盛夏期,梅雨期低频强降水事件次数多,强度强。(3)梅雨期和盛夏期低频强降水事件发生期间的环流形势有着显著的差异。梅雨期,对流层中层东亚沿岸为南北向的波列分布,低层受强索马里越赤道气流和副热带高压外围西南气流共同影响,水汽条件好,东亚存在鞍型场,流场变形,利于形成中尺度气旋系统;盛夏期,对流层中层为欧亚波列分布,低层索马里越赤道气流弱,主要受副热带高压外围水汽输送的影响,日本海以西地区有一异常气旋,其西侧的偏北气流与暖湿气流在30°N附近交汇维持。(4)在强降水事件发生前后,对流层低层的低频正涡度传播特征有较大差异,在梅雨期表现为驻波特征,盛夏期传播更为明显,表现为向西、向南向北传播。     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUMMER LOW-FREQUENCY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION

This study investigates the relationship between summer low-frequency rainfall over southern China and tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the atmosphere by examining systematically the propagation features of the tropical ISO in terms of focusing on five large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes in summer over southern China. It is demonstrated that there is a close linkage between the five rainfall regimes over southern China and the northward propagation of the tropical ISO. The moist ISO signals, which influence the low-frequency rainfall events in different regions of southern China, mainly propagate northwestward from the tropical ocean to the southeast of China. The southeast China rainfall regime is intimately associated with the moist ISO signals propagating northwestward from the equatorial mid-western Pacific Ocean. For both the Yangtze River regime and South of Yangtze River regime, the moist ISO signals over the northern South China Sea show an evident northward propagation towards the Yangtze River region, and then propagate westward. It is further found that the interaction between the northward propagation of low-latitude ISO signals and the southward propagation of high-latitude ISO signals can also make a clear influence on the low-frequency rainfall in southern China. For the Southern China regime, the moist ISO signals show a significant northward propagation from the Philippines. Moreover, for the rainless regime, southern China is under dry ISO signals’ control, and the latter shows no clear propagation to southern China. This study may provide insights for the extended-range forecasting of summer rainfall in southern China.     

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.     

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.     

城市化对华北地区最高, 最低气温和日较差变化趋势的影响

利用华北地区255个一般站和国家基本、 基准站1961\_2000年的实测资料, 经过质量检验和均一性订正后, 将所有台站根据人口和台站地理位置分为5个类别, 分析了这5个类别台站和国家基本、 基准站地面平均气温、 最高、 最低气温的年和季节变化趋势以及城市化影响。结果表明： 华北全部台站的年平均气温、 最高、 最低气温均呈增加趋势, 且以最低气温上升最为明显, 导致年平均日较差呈现明显下降。就城市化影响而言, 平均气温、 最低气温变化趋势中城市热岛效应加强因素的影响明显, 但城市化对最高气温趋势影响微弱, 个别台站和季节甚至可能造成降温。在国家基本、 基准站观测的年平均气温和年平均最低气温上升趋势中, 城市化造成的增温分别为0.11℃·(10a)-1和0.20℃·(10a)-1, 对全部增温的贡献率分别达39.3%和52.6%。各类台站的四季平均气温和最低气温序列中城市化影响均造成增温。城市化增温以冬季为最大, 夏季最小。城市化还导致乡村站以外的各类台站日较差减小, 近40年华北地区国家基本、 基准站年平均和秋、 冬季平均气温日较差明显下降均由城市化影响造成的。