Climate change and coastal flooding in Metro Boston: impacts and adaptation strategies

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825 km long coastline of Metro Boston, USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments, and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis shows that the cumulative 100 year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas.     

Refinement of the late Quaternary geologic history of Erebus volcano,Antarctica using Ar/Ar and Cl age determinations

Six new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and three cosmogenic ³⁶Cl age determinations provide new insight into the late Quaternary eruptive history of Erebus volcano. Anorthoclase from 3 lava flows on the caldera rim have ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of 23 ± 12, 81 ± 3 and 172 ± 10 ka (all uncertainties 2σ). The ages confirm the presence of a second, younger, superimposed caldera near the southwestern margin of the summit plateau and show that eruptive activity has occurred in the summit region for 77 ± 13 ka longer than previously thought. Trachyte from “Ice Station” on the eastern flank is 159 ± 2 ka, similar in age to those at Bomb Peak and Aurora Cliffs. The widespread occurrences of trachyte on the eastern flank of Erebus suggest a major previously unrecognized episode of trachytic volcanism. The trachyte lavas are chemically and isotopically distinct from alkaline lavas erupted contemporaneously in the summit region < 5 km away.     

Optimum damping in linear isolation systems

Optimum isolation damping for minimum acceleration response of base-isolated structures subjected to stationary random excitation is investigated. Three linear models are considered to account for the energy dissipation mechanism of the isolation system: a Kelvin element, a linear hysteretic element and a standard solid linear element, commonly used viscoelastic models for isolation systems comprising natural rubber bearings and viscous dampers. The criterion selected for optimality is the minimization of the mean-square floor acceleration response. The effects of the frequency content of the excitation and superstructure properties on the optimum damping and on the mean-square acceleration response are addressed. The study basically shows that the attainable reduction in the floor acceleration largely depends on the energy dissipation mechanism assumed for the isolation system as well as on the frequency content of the ground acceleration process. Special care should be taken in accurately modelling the mechanical behaviour of the energy dissipation devices.     

Seismic response of heavily damped base isolation systems

The development of an efficient energy-dissipating mechanism that works in conjunction with laminated elastomeric bearings in order to reduce the lateral deformation of the isolation system has always been a goal of base isolation research. Theoretically, this deformation will be reduced to the minimum if damping augmentation of the isolation system can reach a critical value. However, augmenting the isolation damping may cause some unwanted side effects. The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of isolation damping on the seismic response of heavily damped base-isolated buildings. The base isolation system is assumed to be linearly viscoelastic and is analysed using the complex mode method. Solutions derived by using perturbation techniques for a two-degree-of-freedom system and the computer simulation for a multiple-degree-of-freedom system reveal that augmenting the isolation damping can reduce efficiently the deformation of the isolation system, but at the price of increasing the high-frequency vibration in the superstructure. When the damping ratio of the isolation system is beyond some level, increasing the isolation damping will enlarge the extreme values of the base and superstructural accelerations. It is also found that approximate solutions derived from the use of classical damping and classical modes of vibration in the seismic analysis of heavily damped base isolation systems can be substantially in error.     

A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology

Convenient bivariate densities found in the literature are often unsuitable for modeling hydrologic variates. They either constrain the range of association between variates, or fix the form of the marginal distributions. The bivariate meta-Gaussian density is constructed by embedding the normal quantile transform of each variate into the Gaussian law. The density can represent a full range of association between variates and admits arbitrarily specified marginal distributions. Modeling and estimation can be decomposed into i) independent analyses of the marginal distributions, and ii) investigation of the dependence structure. Both statistical and judgmental estimation procedures are possible. Some comparisons to recent applications of bivariate densities in the hydrologic literature motivate and illustrate the model.     

Sources of variability in springwater chemistry in Fool Creek,a high-elevation catchment of the Rocky Mountains,Colorado, USA

Springs are the point of origin for most headwater streams and are important regulators of their chemical composition. We analysed solute concentrations of water emerging from 57 springs within the 3 km² Fool Creek catchment at the Fraser Experimental Forest and considered sources of spatial variation among them and their influence on the chemical composition of downstream water. On average, calcium and acid neutralizing capacity (bicarbonate-ANC) comprised 50 and 90% of the cation and anion charge respectively, in both spring and stream water. Variation in inorganic chemical composition among springs reflected distinct groundwater sources and catchment geology. Springs emerging through glacial deposits in the upper portion of the catchment were the most dilute and similar to snowmelt, whereas lower elevation springs were more concentrated in cations and ANC. Water emerging from a handful of springs in a geologically faulted portion of the catchment were more concentrated than all others and had a predominant effect on downstream ion concentrations. Chemical similarity indicated that these springs were linked along surface and subsurface flowpaths. This survey shows that springwater chemistry is influenced at nested spatial scales including broad geologic conditions, elevational and spatial attributes and isolated local features. Our results highlight the role of overlapping factors on solute export from headwater catchments.     

The Fernow Experimental Forest,West Virginia,USA: Insights,datasets, and opportunities

Long-term experimental watershed studies have significantly influenced our global understanding of hydrological processes. The discovery and characterization of how stream water quantity and quality respond to a changing environment (e.g. land-use change, acidic deposition) has only been possible due to the establishment of catchments devoted to long-term study. One such catchment is the Fernow Experimental Forest (FEF) located in the headwaters of the Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia, a region that provides essential freshwater ecosystem services to eastern and mid-western United States communities. Established in 1934, the FEF is among the earliest experimental watershed studies in the Eastern United States that continues to address emergent challenges to forest ecosystems, including climate change and other threats to forest health. This data note describes available data and presents some findings from more than 50 years of hydrologic research at the FEF. During the first few decades, research at the FEF focused on the relationship between forest management and hydrological processes—especially those related to the overall water balance. Later, research included the examination of interactions between hydrology and soil erosion, biogeochemistry, N-saturation, and acid deposition. Hydro-climatologic and water quality datasets from long-term measurements and data from short-duration studies are publicly available to provide new insights and foster collaborations that will continue to advance our understanding of hydrology in forested headwater catchments. As a result of its rich history of research and abundance of long-term data, the FEF is positioned to continue to advance understanding of forest ecosystems in a time of unprecedented change.     

Electrochemical detection of harmful algae and other microbial contaminants in coastal waters using hand-held biosensors

Standard methods to identify microbial contaminants in the environment are slow, laborious, and can require specialized expertise. This study investigated electrochemical detection of microbial contaminants using commercially available, hand-held instruments. Electrochemical assays were developed for a red tide dinoflagellate (Karenia brevis), fecal-indicating bacteria (Enterococcus spp.), markers indicative of human sources of fecal pollution (human cluster Bacteroides and the esp gene of Enterococcus faecium), bacterial pathogens (Escherichia coli 0157:H7, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter jejuni, Staphylococcus aureus), and a viral pathogen (adenovirus). For K. brevis, two assay formats (Rapid PCR-Detect and Hybrid PCR-Detect) were tested and both provided detection limits of 10 genome equivalents for DNA isolated from K. brevis culture and amplified by PCR. Sensitivity with coastal water samples was sufficient to detect K. brevis that was "present" (相似文献   

An ecohydrological approach to predicting regional woody species distribution patterns in dryland ecosystems

This paper presents a quantitative ecohydrological framework for predicting regional distribution patterns of woody species in dryland ecosystems. The framework is based on an existing stochastic model for the daily mass balance of water that represents the interactions between soils, climate, and vegetation. Individual species selection is based on an optimality trade-off hypothesis, which states that dryland vegetation patterns are constrained by maximization of water use and simultaneous minimization of water stress. The relative importance of water use and stress avoidance to the overall fitness of three Acacia species is determined from the heterogeneous basin, the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro river basin, of the central Kenya highlands. The model results indicate that overall fitness is more strongly influenced by water use than stress avoidance but that consideration of both stress avoidance and water use is critical to predicting basin-scale patterns of species distribution. We identify a linear trend in the frequency and intensity of storms with the same annual total using a basin-wide gauge precipitation dataset. After calibration, we apply the basin average linear trends in time for average rain per storm and storm arrival rates. The model results indicate the upslope migration of two species, Acacia tortilis and Acacia xanthophloea to areas with higher total rainfall. Lastly, we explore the modeled changes of species cover in the basin influenced by changes in rainfall total holding growing season rainfall variability constant and changes in growing season rainfall variability holding total rainfall constant. We find that changes in dryland species distribution patterns and relative abundance may be as sensitive to growing season rainfall variability as they are to changes in total rainfall amounts.