西安致灾短时暴雨中尺度与动力指数特征

基于同化多普勒雷达资料的WRF模式、地面加密观测、卫星云图和NCEP再分析资料等,分析总结2015年8月3日、2016年7月24日西安两次致灾短时暴雨过程环境条件、中尺度系统及动力因子指数特征。结果表明:关中处于稳定少动的西太平洋副热带高压西北边缘,上干下湿、午后低层大气超绝热状态,为短时暴雨提供了热力条件。西风槽与近地层切变线是暴雨直接影响系统。伴随冷锋过境,午后西北方向咸阳、铜川一带地面偏北风跃增是短时暴雨有利触发因子,强降水位于地面3 h正变压中心至东侧大梯度区附近。短时暴雨对流云团距离北部高空急流相对较远,无斜压叶状云系特征,降水对上升气流拖曳作用明显,云团TBB中心降至-65 ℃以下后,周边出现最大雨强。暴雨云团内部,霰粒子含量最大,冰粒子比其他粒子偏少一个量级以上,最强上升运动在霰粒子中心上方-30 ℃层附近、接近雪粒子中心;伴随整层雨水、霰和雪粒子含量5倍以上突增出现短时暴雨,雪粒子比雨水、霰粒子开始增多时段偏晚约1 h,其含量峰值与最大雨强同步。两次短时暴雨环境条件和中尺度特征差异明显。“0803”过程为切变线冷区暴雨,高空西风急流范围大、位置偏南,西太平洋副热带高压较弱,西风槽后偏北冷空气活跃,偏南水汽输送弱,关中地区中下层存在明显能量锋区和对称不稳定;云团内部冰相粒子明显偏多,雪粒子相对霰粒子占比偏高,冷空气入侵有利于冰相粒子快速生长;暴雨位于能量锋区和对流云团边缘、TBB最大梯度区附近。“0724”过程为切变线暖区暴雨,高空急流范围小、位置偏北,西太平洋副热带高压强盛,偏北冷空气弱,偏南水汽输送明显,关中地区中下层为位势不稳定;云团内部冰粒子偏少,雪粒子相对霰粒子占比低;暴雨位于对流云团内部、TBB中心附近。定义的垂直螺旋度指数VHI和散度垂直通量指数DVFI对暴雨落区预报具有较好的参考价值:大暴雨位于动力指数异常大值中心趋于集中且稳定少动的区域附近,动力指数小于200、中心分散且大值持续时间短的区域,降水不明显。      

川西坳陷西南端二叠纪玄武岩喷发环境及分布特征

川西坳陷西南端,在雅安周公山构造钻获玄武岩气藏以来,对玄武岩的研究引起石油地质工作者的极大重视。经实地踏勘及研究认为:玄武岩主要分布在三大古陆及其前缘,可分为海相喷发、陆上喷发和先海相后陆相的三类环境。据火山构造可分为火山岩的相划分则是溢流相、爆发相、火山颈相、火山沉积相和次火山岩相,中心式喷发及裂隙式喷发等,进而可识别出火山岩的相划分则是溢流相、爆发相、火山颈相、火山沉积相和次火山岩相等。从油气储集条件考量与火山颈相关的溢流相较为有利;若与烃源配置适当则可形成玄武岩油气藏。     

黔北务正道地区铝土矿沉积相与矿石品质的关系

在论述黔北务正道地区铝土矿成矿地质背景的基础上,根据古盐度(B)质量分数显示和古地貌特征,认为研究区北部的道真一带是一个"十字形"的半封闭式的古海湾沉积环境,南部属陆上沉积环境。相带划分表明:以滨海相沉积环境下形成的铝土矿矿石品质较好,以中高铝、中高铝硅比为特征;形成于滨岸湿地相的铝土矿次之,矿石品质以中铝、中铝硅比为特征;形成于坡积相的铝土矿矿石品质欠佳,以低铝、低铝硅比为特征。由坡积相向滨岸湿地相过渡的铝土矿矿石品质逐渐变富;而滨海相中铝土矿在其中心地带品质好,向浅海相过渡其矿石品质逐渐变贫。铝土矿矿石品质的规律变化,反映了研究区铝土矿的赋存富集严格受沉积相的制约而呈环状、条带状分布的特点。     

LATE-QUATERNARY ACTIVITY OF THE YALAHE FAULT OF THE XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE,EASTERN MARGIN OF THE TIBET PLATEAU

Complex geometrical structures on strike-slip faults would likely affect fault behavior such as strain accumulation and distribution, seismic rupture process, etc. The Xianshuihe Fault has been considered to be a Holocene active strike-slip fault with a high horizontal slip rate along the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. During the past 300 years, the Xianshuihe Fault produced 8 earthquakes with magnitude≥7 along the whole fault and showed strong activities of large earthquakes. Taking the Huiyuansi Basin as a structure boundary, the northwestern and southeastern segments of the Xianshuihe Fault show different characteristics. The northwestern segment, consisting of the Luhuo, Daofu and Qianning sections, shows a left-stepping en echelon pattern by simple fault strands. However, the southeastern segment(Huiyuansi-Kangding segment)has a complex structure and is divided into three sub-faults: the Yalahe, Selaha and Zheduotang Faults. To the south of Kangding County, the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe Fault shows a simple structure. The previous studies suggest that the three sub-faults(the Yalahe, Selaha and Zheduotang Faults of the Huiyuansi-Kangding segment)unevenly distribute the strain of the northwestern segment of the Xianshuihe Fault. However, the disagreement of the new activity of the Yalahe Fault limits the understanding of the strain distribution model of the Huiyuansi-Kangding segment. Most scholars believed that the Yalahe Fault is a Holocene active fault. However, Zhang et al.(2017)used low-temperature thermochronology to study the cooling history of the Gongga rock mass, and suggested that the Yalahe Fault is now inactive and the latest activity of the Xianshuihe Fault has moved westward over the Selaha Fault. The Yalahe Fault is the only segment of the Xianshuihe Fault that lacks records of the strong historical earthquakes. Moreover, the Yalahe Fault is located in the alpine valley area, and the previous traffic conditions were very bad. Thus, the previous research on fault activity of the fault relied mainly on the interpretation of remote sensing, and the uncertainty was relatively large. Through remote sensing and field investigation, we found the geological and geomorphological evidence for Holocene activity of the Yalahe Fault. Moreover, we found a well-preserved seismic surface rupture zone with a length of about 10km near the Yariacuo and the co-seismic offsets of the earthquake are about 2.5~3.5m. In addition, we also advance the new active fault track of the Yalahe Fault to Yala Town near Kangding County. In Wangmu and Yala Town, we found the geological evidence for the latest fault activity that the Holocene alluvial fans were dislocated by the fault. These evidences suggest that the Yalahe Fault is a Holocene active fault, and has the seismogenic tectonic condition to produce a large earthquake, just like the Selaha and Zheduotang Faults. These also provide seismic geological evidence for the strain distribution model of the Kangding-Huiyuansi segment of the Xianshuihe Fault.     

长江与黄河入海活性硅输送规律及变化趋势

根据长江与黄河各一个完整水文年的调查数据,并结合历史资料分析了我国这两条大型河流活性硅((RSi,RSi=溶解硅(DSi)+生物硅(BSi))的入海通量及长时间序列的变化规律与影响因素.结果表明,长江与黄河RSi的组成存在显著的差异,二者水体中BSi/RSi的平均比值分别为0.22和0.49;黄河DSi的年平均浓度为长江的74%,而BSi年平均浓度却是长江的3倍.黄河水体中相对较高的BSi浓度反映了黄河流域水体浑浊度与土壤侵蚀程度较高,源自黄土高原高的泥沙输送量是导致黄河水体中BSi浓度较长江高的主要原因.长江与黄河下游RSi通量在丰水期、平水期与枯水期的比值分别为5.3∶3.1∶1.6与3.8∶3.4∶2.8,长江半数以上的RSi入海通量是在丰水期输出的,而黄河在3个时期的差异不明显.相比于径流的变化,1958-2014年间长江DSi通量变化主要是由DSi浓度的变化引起的,流域气候变化(如温度变化)是其浓度及其通量年代际变化的重要原因;而黄河1985-2001年间DSi通量下降是由于径流量与DSi浓度降低的双重原因引起的.气候变化,特别是温度的变化会对流域硅的风化速率与硅的产出产生重要影响,但其具体的影响有待进一步揭示.     

An Experiment on the Prediction of the Surface Wind Speed in Chongli Based on the WRF Model: Evaluation and Calibration

In this study,the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to generate accurate near-surface wind speed forecasts at kilometer-to subkilometer-scale resolution along race tracks(RTs)in Chongli during the wintertime is evaluated.The performance of two postprocessing methods,including the decaying-averaging(DA)and analogy-based(AN)methods,is tested to calibrate the near-surface wind speed forecasts.It is found that great uncertainties exist in the model’s raw forecasts of the near-surface wind speed in Chongli.Improvement of the forecast accuracy due to refinement of the horizontal resolution from kilometer to subkilometer scale is limited and not systematic.The RT sites tend to have large bias and centered root mean square error(CRMSE)values and also exhibit notable underestimation of high-wind speeds,notable overestimation or underestimation of the near-surface wind speed at high altitudes,and notable underestimation during daytime.These problems are not resolved by increasing the horizontal resolution and are even exacerbated,which leads to great challenges in the accurate forecasting of the near-surface wind speed in the competition areas in Chongli.The application of postprocessing methods can greatly improve the forecast accuracy of near-surface wind speed.Both methods used in this study have comparable abilities in reducing the(positive or negative)bias,while the AN method is also capable of decreasing the random error reflected by CRMSE.In particular,the large biases for high-wind speeds,wind speeds at high-altitude stations,and wind speeds during the daytime at RT stations can be evidently reduced.     

无定河流域产沙量变化的淤地坝效应分析

无定河流域1971~1989年的年均流量、悬移质含沙量及输沙率比1954~1970年的明显变小,而月均水沙过程曲线也发生了明显变化。上述水沙过程的变化受到1970年以来人类活动的强烈影响,而淤地坝建设是主因。为探讨淤地坝的减沙效应,提出淤地坝有效减沙面积这一概念,并拟合了动态变化的淤地坝有效减沙面积与年份之间的关系,发现该关系曲线与无定河流域各年代产沙量的变化情况相符。自1990年以来无定河流域淤地坝有效减沙面积呈明显递减趋势,导致了自上世纪90年代以来该流域的产沙量出现增大现象。为了抑制该流域的产沙量,势必需要加大淤地坝建设的力度。如果想使该流域的产沙量逐渐减少,则至少要使流域内年淤地坝有效减沙面积逐年增加。     

地表破裂型逆断层地表缩短量计算方法探讨——以汶川MS 8.0地震地表变形为例

合理估计逆断层地表破裂缩短量是全面认识同震地表变形参数的核心内容,目前还没有较成熟的方法。以汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂为例,尝试通过探槽开挖来研究逆断层水平缩短量的计算问题。在分析汶川地震同震变形的基础上,总结了3种陡坎的成因模式:断层断错地表型、挠曲型、断层与挠曲叠加型,并依据这些模型提出了一些水平缩短量的计算方法及其限制条件,以及如何理解逆断层地表破裂探槽开挖所揭示的信息。最后给出了汶川MS8.0地震白鹿中心学校和汉旺全新村两地点水平缩短量的求解过程及结论,计算得到白鹿中心学校探槽水平缩短量为(2.83±0.3)m,汉旺全新村探槽水平缩短量为(0.61±0.11)m     

Impact of Soil Moisture Uncertainty on Summertime Short-range Ensemble Forecasts

To investigate the impact of soil moisture uncertainty on summertime short-range ensemble forecasts(SREFs), a fivemember SREF experiment with perturbed initial soil moisture(ISM) was performed over a northern China domain in summertime from July to August 2014. Five soil moisture analyses from three different operational/research centers were used as the ISM for the ensemble. The ISM perturbation produced notable ensemble spread in near-surface variables and atmospheric variables below 800 h Pa, and produced skillful ensemble-mean 24-h accumulated precipitation(APCP24) forecasts that outperformed any single ensemble member. Compared with a second SREF experiment with mixed microphysics parameterization options, the ISM-perturbed ensemble produced comparable ensemble spread in APCP24 forecasts, and had better Brier scores and resolution in probabilistic APCP24 forecasts for 10-mm, 25-mm and 50-mm thresholds. The ISM-perturbed ensemble produced obviously larger ensemble spread in near-surface variables. It was, however, still under-dispersed, indicating that perturbing ISM alone may not be adequate in representing all the uncertainty at the near-surface level, indicating further SREF studies are needed to better represent the uncertainties in land surface processes and their coupling with the atmosphere.     

THE STUDY OF RETRIEVAL THEORY AND METHODS FROM SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING FOR METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OVER EASTERN ASIA-PART Ⅱ:ISPRM AND VSPRM2*

Based on the practice of improved simultaneous physical retrieval model(ISPRM),in the light of the functional analysis approach,the variational simultaneous physical retrieval model(VSPRM) has been developed.Its approximation of 1st degree is VSPRM1,which is identical with the ISPRM.Its approximation of 2nd degree is VSPRM2,more advanced than the VSPRM1.This paper has analyzed the function of VSPRM2,pointing out the potentiality of synergy retrieval of this model.Also,it has dealt with the problem of parameterization of water vapor's kernel functions and retrieval of water vapor remote sensing.Because of the characteristics of this strong ill posed inverse problem,prior information must be used wisely in order to get the accurate calculation of radiance R.In the previous paper,we discussed how to build the best first guess field,the way to determine the P_s and to correct the calculation of radiance.In this paper,we continue discussing in depth about the calculation of transmittance,the determination of surface parameters and the selection for an optimum combination of channels for the low-level sounding.The long-term experiment and comparison work under operational environment have shown that the ISPRM is useful for retrieval of temperature and water vapor parameters over China including the Tibetan Plateau,and it further proves the scientific nature of well-posed inverse theory.