集合动力因子暴雨预报方法研究

介绍了广义位温、湿热力平流参数、热力螺旋度、热力散度垂直通量、广义湿位涡、力管涡度、热力力管涡度、二级位涡、对流涡度矢量和波作用密度等宏观物理量的定义及其物理意义。个例分析表明,这些动力因子与降水系统发展演变密切相关,对地面观测降水有一定的指示作用。这主要是因为：（1）这些因子能够描述降水系统的动、热力垂直结构等共性特征;f2）这些因子大部分包含广义位温,而广义位温又与凝结潜热和相对湿度有关,因而这些因子也能描述降水系统的水汽场结构特点。以这些动力因子为基础建立了集合动力因子预报方法,该方法首先建立以GFS预报场资料为基础的单动力因子降水预报方程,然后根据其与观测降水的相关性,定义权重函数,对多个动力因子的降水预报进行权重平均,最后得到集合动力因子的降水预报。该预报方法可以充分发挥多个动力因子的优势,比较全面地反映暴雨过程的共性特征。长时间序列的统计检验表明,集合动力因子的降水预报评分略高于全球预报系统（GFS）模式自身的降水预报评分,表现在降水落区预报方面,集合动力因子的预报效果略优于GFS模式的自身预报,然而,在降水强度预报方面,集合动力因子和GFS模式都略有过度预报。集合动力因子预报方法计算量小,容易移植,可以提供降水预报产品,为预报员做暴雨预报提供支持。     

铜仁市碧江区旅游气象舒适度与客流量关系分析

利用碧江区1999-2018年的气候资料和2017-2019年的景区游客量资料,对碧江区气候舒适度进行评价,划分气候舒适度等级,综合分析气候舒适度与游客量的相关性。研究表明：碧江区旅游气候舒适度年适宜时段主要分布在3-6月,8月底到11月底,共196天;碧江区年内游客量呈“双峰型”特征,峰值分别出现在5月和10月;总体来说,碧江区气候舒适度与天生桥、大明边城、百花渡等三个景区游客量具有较好的相关性,相关系数分别为0.81,0.75,0.69。     

倾斜摄影测量和惯导RTK在农村宅基地确权中的应用

贵州省地形复杂,地块破碎,农村宅基地形状不规则,且房屋多在植被高且茂密的地方,导致实地作业难度大、耗时多,常规RTK信号易被中断。针对该问题,本文考虑倾斜摄影技术和惯导RTK的优势,提出了一种倾斜摄影测量技术和惯导RTK技术在农村宅基地确权中的应用方法,旨在高效率地完成贵州省农村宅基地确权工作。在贵州省纳雍县董地乡新华村进行农村宅基地确权测量试验,采用全站仪对研究区的界址点点位、界址线边长及宗地面积的高精度观测进行验证,并从两个角度详细阐述了该方法的可行性:一是对全站仪数据和倾斜摄影技术图解法得到的数据进行对比分析和精度评定;二是对全站仪数据和惯导RTK解析法得到的数据进行对比分析。试验结果表明,倾斜摄影测量的图解法成果数据满足《地籍调查规程》(TD/T 1001—2012)中图解法1∶1000地籍图的要求,惯导RTK的解析法成果数据满足该规程中解析法二级精度的要求。基于此,该方法在农村宅基地确权中表现出精度高、操作性强、耗时低的优势,可为喀斯特山区农村宅基地确权提供一种可复制性强的参考方法。     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Chinese coal: occurrence and sorption mechanism

Elevated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations were determined in different Chinese coals, with the highest concentrations in bituminous coals. Phenanthrene (Phen) was chosen as the probe compound for PAHs to study the sorption behavior of coal. No native Phen was detected in desorption experiments indicating irreversible sorption–desorption behavior of PAHs in raw coal samples. Sorption mechanism was further studied under varying conditions of pH value and ionic strength. Different ranks of coal showed different sorption behavior under acidic, neutral, and alkaline conditions. Batch experiments were further processed for the selected coals at pH values from 3 to 11 at a constant aqueous concentration. Sorption capacities of all coals decreased with increased pH except for YJ coal. Furthermore, although DOC-associated Phen mass contributed little to the total Phen mass under different pH values, the significant negative correlations between M _DOC and log K _OC values were observed for all coal samples, indicating a significant role played by DOC in the coal sorption. In addition, sorption experiments under varying ionic strength showed that the ionic strength influence was more obvious in sorption isotherms for higher rank coals with increasing ionic strength, and this effect was most significant when ionic strength increased from 0 to 0.15 M, especially at relatively low aqueous concentrations.     

Large-Sized Ankylosaur (Dinosauria) from the Lower Cretaceous Jiufotang Formation of Western Liaoning, China

Two incomplete bones referred to ankylosaur scapulocoracoid and humerus are described, which were discovered from the Early Cretaceous Jiufotang Formation of Dachengzi Town, Kazuo County, Liaoning Province. Ankylosaur dinosaurs have ever been found in the Lower Cretaceous Yixian, Fuxin and Sunjiawan Formations of western Liaoning. The occurrence of ankylosaurs within Jiufotang Formation improves our knowledge on the ankylosaur stratigraphic distribution. Based on the length of scapulocoracoid, the new dinosaur is estimated to exceed 6.0 meters long, representing the largest ankylosaur in western Liaoning.     

云南盈江邦朗寨铅锌矿成矿条件及找矿远景

邦郎寨铅、锌多金属矿化体主要赋存于下元古界高黎贡山群下段（Pt1gl1）角闪片岩、板岩及硅质岩和结晶灰岩中,矿体由深部富含挥发分的含矿热液沿层间剥离滑脱构造充填成矿.并在断裂构造有利部位形成热液充填型铅、锌多金属隐伏矿体.     

北京“7.21”暴雨过程中变形场引起的锋生与倾斜涡度发展诊断分析

从变形场驱动锋生及通过锋生引起倾斜涡度发展的角度对变形场在北京“7.21”暴雨发生、发展过程中的可能作用机制进行了初步探讨。诊断结果发现：北京地区降水产生时,变形向量与等位温线走向一致或有较小夹角,北京地区有较强的变形场局地锋生过程。锋生函数分析发现,变形项对引发暴雨的低层锋生有重要贡献。锋生能够引发大气动力、热力结构的调整,伴随大气锋生过程的高空急流加强和转竖使得北京地区处于高空急流入口区右侧的辐散区中,其带动低层空气辐合,有助于暴雨的加强维持。分析还发现,“7.21”暴雨过程中,垂直涡度存在爆发性发展,尤其是锋面降水阶段,而大气斜压度的增长趋势与垂直涡度增长趋势十分一致。分析全型涡度方程中与变形场有关的斜压度个别变化项发现,与变形场相关的垂直涡度驱动项异常正值区与垂直涡度爆发性增长区相对应,表明变形场在北京“7.21”暴雨过程中对垂直涡度发展有重要贡献。基于变形场沿其压缩轴方向气流汇合的特点,进一步分析了加入水汽作用的水汽通量变形场与暴雨发生、发展的关系。分析结果发现,低层水汽通量变形场的正值区与暴雨具有很强的相关,且水汽通量变形场包含两部分,一部分为比湿平流,其对未来暴雨区位置有很好的指示意义;一部分为变形场项,其对水汽通量变形场分布起主要贡献。     

“一带一路”对国民出境沿线国家旅游需求的促进效应

收集网络关注度等数据,构建趋势线模型测算“一带一路”对我国国民出境沿线国家旅游需求的促进效应、空间差异及影响因素。结果发现：①“一带一路”共对27个国家旅游需求有促进作用,且各国家所受影响程度差异较大;人口、经济发展水平、资源丰度和空间距离是“一带一路”对沿线各国旅游需求促进作用空间差异的重要影响因素。②“一带一路”共对30个省域国民出境旅游需求有促进作用,且各省域所受影响程度不同;人口、经济发展水平、受教育程度和人均可支配收入是“一带一路”对各省域国民出境旅游需求促进作用空间差异的重要影响因素。     

Dynamic changes and transitions of agricultural landscape patterns in mountainous areas: A case study from the hinterland of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Analyzing the agricultural landscape patterns in mountainous areas is critical to clarify the dynamic changes and development direction of agricultural landscapes. This also plays a significant role in the rational planning and management of agricultural land. A theoretical framework for agricultural landscape pattern transitions in mountainous areas is proposed to fill the gap of current research with an empirical study in the Caotangxi Watershed, Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), China. The transition characteristics of agricultural landscape patterns from 2000 to 2018 as represented by sloping farmland, abandoned land, and orchards are analyzed from a holistic-local perspective. The results indicate that the orchards expanded along river valleys, and abandoned land expanded at high elevations, which led to reduced sloping farmland. This phenomenon gives regional landscape differences at the holistic and local levels. Namely, it enhances the region’s holistic landscape diversity but causes fragmentation and aggregation of landscape patches in local areas. The agricultural landscape pattern transitions within the farming range in the study area are manifested primarily in four modes: sloping farmland-orchard conversion type (FOCT), comprehensive conversion type (CCT), partially abandoned type (PAT), and wholly abandoned type (WAT). Each transition mode reveals different development stages of the mountainous agricultural landscape patterns. In general, the agricultural landscape pattern transition is driven by socioeconomic factors in mountainous areas of the TGRA and is bidirectional. This attribute is expressed as the transition from the traditional grain-planting landscape with an even distribution to the eco-economic win-win orchard in valleys and transitions from sloping farmland to abandoned land in high-elevation areas. Overall, the results of this study reveal the uniqueness of agricultural landscape pattern evolutions in China’s mountainous areas in recent decades, which has enlightened the in-depth understandings of rural land use and agricultural ecosystems in mountainous areas of the TGRA, as well as improvements in rural developments and ecological environments.     

一维渗流引发介质颗粒位移维数的概念模型分析

从Helm的三维固结问题的质量连续性方程出发，通过对一维渗流概念模型分析，定性讨论了非固结含水层的一维储水渗流过程与释水渗流过程中的颗粒位移维数问题，指出颗粒位移的减维概化必须审慎从事，原因在于目前尚缺乏相应的理论支持。这对与抽注地下水有关的地层形变及地质灾害研究具指导意义。