Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in Eastern China as simulated by CCSM4

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO(+PDO- AMO), as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO(-PDO + AMO). For the +PDO- AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley(YR),when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the-PDO + AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970 s and late 1990 s.     

Impacts of bias correction of lateral boundary conditions on regional climate projections in West Africa

Biases existing in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) influence climate simulations in regional climate models (RCMs). Correcting the biases in global climate model (GCM)-produced LBCs before running RCMs was proposed in previous studies as a possible way to reduce the GCM-related model dependence of future climate projections using RCMs. In this study the ICTP Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of LBC bias correction on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa. To accomplish this, two types of present versus future simulations are conducted using RegCM4: a control type where both the present and future LBCs are derived directly from the GCM output (as is done in most regional climate downscaling studies); an experiment type where the present-day LBCs are from reanalysis data and future LBCs are derived by combining the reanalysis data and the GCM-projected LBC changes. For each type of simulations, three different sets of LBCs are experimented on: 6-hourly synoptic forcing directly from the reanalysis or GCM, 6-hourly data interpolated from monthly climatology (without diurnal cycle), and 6-hourly data interpolated from the month-specific climatology of diurnal cycles. It is found that the simulations using different LBCs produce similar present-day summer rainfall patterns, but the predicted future changes differ significantly depending on how the LBC bias correction is treated. Specifically, both the bias correction applied at the synoptic scale and the bias correction applied to the monthly interpolated LBCs without diurnal cycle produce a spurious drying signal caused by physical inconsistency in the corrected future LBCs. Interpolated monthly LBCs with diurnal cycle alleviate the problem to a large extent. These results suggest that using bias-corrected LBCs to drive regional climate models may not guarantee reliable future projections although reasonable present climate can be simulated. Physical inconsistencies may be contained in the bias-corrected LBCs, increasing the uncertainties of RCM-produced future projections.     

An analysis on the concentration characteristics of PM2.5 in Seoul,Korea from 2005 to 2012

PM2.5 is a big issue as it is considerably more harmful than other sizes of particulate matter. World Health Organization (WHO) recommends 25 μg m^?3 as the daily average concentration, and 10 μg m^?3 per day as an annual average. To keep up with global trends, it is first necessary to understand the current status and characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations in Korea. Using the PM2.5 data measured by Seoul Metropolitan City from November 2005 to March 2012, the author analyzed its statistical characteristics and correlations with other air pollutants. For the time period from 2005 to 2012, the annual average concentration of PM2.5 was 27 μg m^?3, three times the WHO standard. Also, the daily average PM2.5 concentration of 215 days per year also exceeded the WHO standard. However, the number days exceeding the Korean daily average standard of 50 μg m^?3 to be enacted in 2014 was only three. PM2.5 concentration had a high correlation (r = 0.84) with PM10, and also showed high correlations with gaseous pollutants, such as SO₂, NO₂, and CO, but not O₃. This study suggests that the Korean government should strengthen their standard to match the criteria used by WHO.     

A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to tropospheric ozone

This study simulates the effective radiative forcing(ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol–climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI(Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone(TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere;and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m~(-2), thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36℃, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d~(-1)(the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4?C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator,with an increase of 0.5 mm d~(-1)near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about-0.6 mm d~(-1)near the middle of the Indian Ocean.     

A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

Identification of forcing mechanisms of convective initiation over mountains through high-resolution numerical simulations

正Convection and its ensuing severe weather,such as heavy rainfall,hail,tornado,and high wind,have significant impacts on our society and economy(e.g.,Cao et al.,2004;Fritsch and Carbone,2004;Verbout et al.,2006;Ashley and Black,2008;Cao,2008;Cao and Ma,2009;Zhang et al.,2014).Due to its localized and transient nature,the initiation of convection or convective initiation remains one of the least     

Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.     

Influence of coastal wind on surface ozone and nitrogen oxides in suburban Shanghai

Surface ozone, NO, NO₂, and NO _x were measured at a coastal site (Shihua) and a nearby inland site (Zhujing) in suburban Shanghai for the whole year of 2009. More days with ozone pollution in a longer time range were observed at the coastal site than the inland site. The diurnal variations of NO _x concentrations were obviously higher at Zhujing station, while those of ozone concentrations were higher at Shihua station, indicating their different air pollution conditions. Coastal wind has significant influence on the levels and characteristics of the air pollutants. The ozone concentrations during maritime winds (MW) were much higher than those during continental winds (CW) at each of the site, while the NO and NO₂ concentrations were both opposite. The ozone concentrations at Shihua station were much higher than those at Zhujing station, while the NO and NO₂ concentrations were both opposite. The ozone concentrations at both of the two sites showed a distinct “weekend effects” and “weekdays effects” patterns during CW and MW, respectively. Correlation analysis of the pollutants showed that, the compounds during MW were more age than those during CW, and the compounds at Shihua were more age than those at Zhujing. The air pollutions at both of the two sites are mainly associated with the pollutants emitted in this region instead of long range transport.     

Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

The author “Bhaski Bhaskaran” and his affiliation “Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK” should be replaced by “Balakrishnan Bhaskaran”, “Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK”, respectively.The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.