Provenance of the Bosnian Flysch

Sandwiched between the Adriatic Carbonate Platform and the Dinaride Ophiolite Zone, the Bosnian Flysch forms a c. 3000 m thick, intensely folded stack of Upper Jurassic to Cretaceous mixed carbonate and siliciclastic sediments in the Dinarides. New petrographic, heavy mineral, zircon U/Pb and fission-track data as well as biostratigraphic evidence allow us to reconstruct the palaeogeology of the source areas of the Bosnian Flysch basin in late Mesozoic times. Middle Jurassic intraoceanic subduction of the Neotethys was shortly followed by exhumation of the overriding oceanic plate. Trench sedimentation was controlled by a dual sediment supply from the sub-ophiolitic high-grade metamorphic soles and from the distal continental margin of the Adriatic plate. Following obduction onto Adria, from the Jurassic–Cretaceous transition onwards a vast clastic wedge (Vranduk Formation) was developed in front of the leading edge, fed by continental basement units of Adria that experienced Early Cretaceous synsedimentary cooling, by the overlying ophiolitic thrust sheets and by redeposited elements of coeval Urgonian facies reefs grown on the thrust wedge complex. Following mid-Cretaceous deformation and thermal overprint of the Vranduk Formation, the depozone migrated further towards SW and received increasing amounts of redeposited carbonate detritus released from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform margin (Ugar Formation). Subordinate siliciclastic source components indicate changing source rocks on the upper plate, with ophiolites becoming subordinate. The zone of the continental basement previously affected by the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous thermal imprint has been removed; instead, the basement mostly supplied detritus with a wide range of pre-Jurassic cooling ages. However, a c. 80 Ma, largely synsedimentary cooling event is also recorded by the Ugar Formation, that contrasts the predominantly Early Cretaceous cooling of the Adriatic basement and suggests, at least locally, a fast exhumation.     

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

Sedimentology and palynology of the Calafate Formation (Maastrichtian), Austral Basin, Southern Patagonia, Argentina

The Calafate Formation crops out in south-western Santa Cruz Province, Argentina, and displays a stacking of asymmetrical coarsening–fining-upward cycles. These cycles are interpreted as the product of short-lived transgressive-regressive events in which the coarsening upward part represents sedimentary aggradation with a stable or decreasing sea level. Sedimentological and palynological analyses indicate nearshore marine conditions. Even though the existence of an estuary or incised valley cannot be determined, this is the most probable palaeogeographic model. Based on dinoflagellate cysts, the base of the section is considered to be not older than Maastrichtian. The presence of the oyster Ambigostrea clarae (Ihering) occurring together with the dinoflagellate cyst species Manumiella druggii (Stover) Bujak and Davies and Eisenackia circumtabulata Drugg in the middle part of the section indicates an age no older than late Maastrichtian. According to sedimentological data, deposits representing the Cretaceous–Palaeogene transition would have been eroded, which is confirmed by the presence of Grapnelispora loncochensis Papú. This megaspore is a consistent component of the Maastrichtian assemblages from Patagonia.     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

Evaluation of Subsurface Lithologic Units for Groundwater Exploration in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh

Barind Tract, located north western part of Bangladesh, is one of the most diversified physiographic units of the country. The surface water supply in this part is particularly limited, so the irrigation is almost entirely depends on groundwater. However, over exploitation indicates falling groundwater heads in this area. The objective of present study is to examine the nature of the aquifer system Barind Tract of Bangladesh in order to assess the sustainability of groundwater yield. Borehole lithology data were collected, processed and analyzed for this purpose. Representative panel diagram, 3-D stratigraphic and cross-sectional views were also prepared for necessary assessment of the variation of individual subsurface stratum in different locations. The study identified three subsurface geologic formations namely, a top clay layer, sand layer of different grain size and at the bottom an impermeable clay zone. Maps of formation thickness and index revealed that aquifer thickness is low in the north-western corner and in some places of middle of south-western corner. The thickness of sand formation in other places is recorded above 20 m. It is expect that the finding of the study will help groundwater resources development, planning and management in the area.     

Water pollution in gold mining industry: a case study in Roşia Montană district, Romania

The preliminary study of streams and rivers from the Roşia Montană area revealed that the concntration of heavy metals— Cd, Mn, Cu, Pb, and Zn—are above accepted limits. The gold extraction method is based on flotation. The most important pollution sources are mine tailings. The determinations were performed for samples collected in: April 2004, July 2004, September 2004, November 2004, February 2005 and May 2005. The highest concentrations were found for cadmium in September 2004: 0.17 mg/L; for copper in September 2004: 1.38 mg/L; for manganese in July 2004: 239.4 mg/L; for lead in May 2005: 0.54 mg/L; and for zinc in September 2004: 35.37 mg/L;. This study involved three small rivers (streams) that flow into the Mureş River and finally into the Danube River, having a great impact on human health and environmental stability in the area. In May 2005, a sample of drinking water from the mining district was also collected.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.