Quantification of the environmental structural risk with spoiling ties: is randomization worthwhile?

Many recent works show that copulas turn out to be useful in a variety of different applications, especially in environmental sciences. Here the variables of interest are usually continuous, being times, lengths, weights, and so on. Unfortunately, the corresponding observations may suffer from (instrumental) adjustments and truncations, and eventually may show several repeated values (i.e., ties). In turn, on the one hand, a tricky issue of identifiability of the model arises, and, on the other hand, the assessment of the risk may be adversely affected. A possible remedy is to adopt suitable randomization procedures: here three different strategies are outlined. The goal of the work is to carry out a simulation study in order to evaluate the effects of the randomization of multivariate observations when ties are present. In particular, it is investigated whether, how, and to what extent, the randomization may change the estimation of the structural risk: for this purpose, a coastal engineering example will be used, as archetypical of a broad class of models and problems in engineering applications. Practical advices and warnings about the use of randomization techniques are hence given.     

Marymia: an Archean, amphibolite facies-hosted, orogenic lode-gold deposit overprinted by Palaeoproterozoic orogenesis and base metal mineralisation, Western Australia

The Marymia gold deposit, comprising two orebodies, Keillor 1 and Keillor 2, is at the northern end of the Plutonic Well greenstone belt in the Marymia Inlier, in the southern Capricorn Orogen, just north of the Yilgarn craton. The Marymia Inlier is a discrete fault-bounded Archean gneiss-granitoid-greenstone domain surrounded by sedimentary basins that were formed and variably metamorphosed and deformed during several Palaeoproterozoic orogenic cycles. The greenstone sequence at Marymia is stratigraphically and geochemically similar to greenstone sequences in the Yilgarn craton, but was subjected to further deformation and metamorphism in the Palaeoproterozoic. Late Archean deformation (D1-D2) was ductile to brittle-ductile in style, whereas Palaeoproterozoic deformation was predominantly brittle. Equilibrium mineral assemblages indicate that peak amphibolite-facies metamorphism (540-575 °C, <3 kb) was overprinted by greenschist-facies metamorphism (300-360 °C). Petrographic textures indicate that prograde metamorphism was coeval with D1-D2, with peak metamorphism early to syn D2. Gold mineralisation at Marymia is hosted in metamorphosed tholeiitic basalts and banded iron formation. On a gross scale, the distribution of gold is controlled by D2 folds and shear zones. Lithological contacts with strong rheological or chemical contrasts provide local controls. Gold-related alteration comprises subtle millimetre- to centimetre-wide zones of silicification with variable amounts of quartz, hornblende, biotite, K-feldspar, plagioclase, calcite/siderite, scheelite, titanite, epidote, sulfide and telluride minerals. Quartz veins are generally narrow and discontinuous with low total volume of quartz. Gold is sited in the wall rock, at vein salvedges or within stringers of wall rock within veins. There are two distinct opaque-mineral assemblages: pyrite-pyrrhotite-chalcopyrite-galena and hessite-petzite-altaite-Bi-telluride-galena. Ore samples are variably enriched in Ag, Te, Pb, W, Cu, S and Fe reflecting heterogeneity of the ore mineralogy. Structural timing and temperature of formation of alteration and ore minerals support deposition of gold during late peak amphibolite-facies metamorphism from neutral to alkaline (pH=5-6), moderately oxidising (log P_O2,-21-22) and CO₂-bearing (X_CO2 Ƹ.2) fluids. The total sulfur content of the fluid is estimated at 1mDS. Lead isotope compositions support derivation of lead from within the local greenstone sequence. Gold lodes were deformed by faults and shear zones in the Palaeoproterozoic, with only limited remobilisation. Subeconomic, carbonate vein- and breccia-hosted base metal mineralisation is locally hosted within Palaeoproterozoic fault zones, which clearly cut gold lodes. Base-metal-related alteration is characterised by intense carbonatisation, chloritisation, and albitisation of the mafic host rocks. Mineral assemblages are consistent with formation at greenschist facies conditions. Lead isotope compositions support crystallisation at ca. 1.7 Ga from lead that is similar in composition to earlier gold-related galena.     

Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

Electron paramagnetic resonance,optical absorption,and magnetic circular dichroism studies of the CO 3 − molecular-ion in irradiated natural beryl

Room temperature X-irradiation of some natural beryls produced several new absorption lines in the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectrum, a known series of optical absorption lines in the 500–700 nm range, and a shift of the absorption edge to lower energies. Several of the new EPR lines and part of the irradiation-induced shift of the absorption edge disappeared after a few days at room temperature, and were not examined in detail. However, three of the paramagnetic centres responsible for the new EPR lines were stable at room temperature and two of these have previously been identified as atomic hydrogen and the methyl radical, CH₃. These species were stable to ～150 and ～450°C respectively. The third stable species, hitherto unreported, showed a single-line EPR spectrum of axial symmetry, with g∥=2.0051 and g⊥=2.0152. This spectrum was found to be intensity-correlated with the series of optical bands in the 500–700 nm range, after thermal bleaching at 175°C. The EPR and optical spectra are therefore assigned to the same species. It is argued that this species is the CO ₃ ^? molecular ion, located in the widest part of the structural channel and aligned with the plane of the molecule perpendicular to the c axis. The EPR spectrum is consistent with a ² A′₂ ground state of a CO ₃ ^? molecule with trigonal symmetry, and this requires that the optical transition has a ² A′₂ → ² E′ character. Most of the features in the optical spectrum can be assigned to coupling of a totally symmetric mode of frequency ～1020 cm^?1 onto a zero-phonon line at 14,490 cm^?1 and a second weaker line at 16,020 cm^?1. However, both of these two fundamental lines are structured, and the two components show strong temperature-dependent derivative-shaped magnetic circular dichroism (MCD). Furthermore, the overall sign of the MCD for the line at 16,020 cm^?1 is opposite to that at 14,490 cm^?1. The separation (～120 cm^?1) of the two components of the 14,490 cm^?1 line is much larger than that expected from spin-orbit interaction, and the origin of this splitting is not yet understood.     

The stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer: Processes,models, observations,and simulations

After briefly reviewing the observational data on the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer, the chemical and physical processes that are likely to fix the properties of the layer are discussed. We present appropriate continuity equations for aerosol particles, and show how to solve the equations on a digital computer. Simulations of the unperturbed aerosol layer by various published models are discussed and the sensitivity of layer characteristics to variations in several aerosol model parameters is studied. We discuss model applications to anthropogenic pollution problems and demonstrate that moderate levels of aerospace activity (supersonic transport and space shuttle operations) will probably have only a negligible effect on global climate. Finally, we evaluate the possible climatic effect of a ten-fold increase in the atmospheric abundance of carbonyl sulfide.     

Silicic differentiates of abyssal oceanic magmas: Evidence for late-magmatic vapor transport of potassium

Massive, nearly holocrystalline dolerites from DSDP Hole 417D contain from 0.5 to 1.5% of granophyric patches composed mainly of Na-plagioclase and quartz. These patches are compositionally similar to other crystalline silicic rocks from oceanic spreading centers and differ from rarer abyssal silicic glasses. Crystalline varieties withSiO₂60wt.% generally haveNa/K>10, whereas silicic glasses have Na/K in the range 3–6. While crystal fractionation readily accounts for the Na₂O and K₂O contents of abyssal silicic glasses, both the 417D granophyres and other crystalline abyssal silicic rocks have much lower K₂O than that predicted by any reasonable crystal-liquid fractionation model. We propose that high-temperature vapor phase transport is responsible for removal of potassium during late-stage crystallization of these rocks. This allows for the formation of cogenetic silicic glassy and crystalline rocks with greatly different Na/K ratios. These observations and interpretations lead to a more confident assignment of high Na/K silicic rocks of oceanic and ophiolitic environments to a cogenetic origin with basaltic oceanic crust.