Contribution à la surveillance de l'activité de l'Etna à partir de l'étude des zones fumerolliennes

Resume La convection de la vapeur d'eau formée en profondeur dans une zone fumerollienne crée en surface une anomalie hydrique, thermique et électrique, cette dernière pouvant être la plus sensible à une variation de l'activité thermique profonde. L'amplitude des anomalies dépend de la position du site par rapport à la configuration de l'activité magmatique, mais aussi des conditions hydrogéologiques locales. La surveillance spatiale et temporelle des éruptions à partir du phénomène convectif hydrique doit tenir compte de ces conditions.

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The water steam convection existing below a fumarolic area creates hydraulic, thermal and electric anomalies, the electric anomaly being probably the most correlated to a change of the deep thermal activity. The anomaly range depends on the position of the site connected with the configuration of the magmatic activity, but also on the local hydrogeologic conditions. The spatial and temporal surveillance of the eruptions based on these convective data should take into consideration these conditions.

     

Normalized 87Sr86Sr by multiple collection and comparison to a standard

A system for precisely determining normalized ${}^{87}\text{Sr}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ by comparing unknown to standard in a solid-source quadruple-collector mass spectrometer is outlined. This is made possible by a mathematical approximation in the data-reduction process.     

Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of “climate change to the year 2000”

The National Defense University's study of climate change to the year 2000 was based largely on the judgments of the members of two expert panels. Although the study has been widely distributed and apparently read by policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, the method of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment has not been critically reviewed. This paper uses the literature on judgment and subjective probability to evaluate the expert judgment methods used in the study.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.