Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming

 A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997     

A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability

 The North Atlantic is one of the few places on the globe where the atmosphere is linked to the deep ocean through air–sea interaction. While the internal variability of the atmosphere by itself is only predictable over a period of one to two weeks, climate variations are potentially predictable for much longer periods of months or even years because of coupling with the ocean. This work presents details from the first study to quantify the predictability for simulated multidecadal climate variability over the North Atlantic. The model used for this purpose is the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model used extensively for studies of global warming and natural climate variability. This model contains fluctuations of the North Atlantic and high-latitude oceanic circulation with variability concentrated in the 40–60 year range. Oceanic predictability is quantified through analysis of the time-dependent behavior of large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns for the meridional stream function, dynamic topography, 170 m temperature, surface temperature and surface salinity. The results indicate that predictability in the North Atlantic depends on three main physical mechanisms. The first involves the oceanic deep convection in the subpolar region which acts to integrate atmospheric fluctuations, thus providing for a red noise oceanic response as elaborated by Hasselmann. The second involves the large-scale dynamics of the thermohaline circulation, which can cause the oceanic variations to have an oscillatory character on the multidecadal time scale. The third involves nonlocal effects on the North Atlantic arising from periodic anomalous fresh water transport advecting southward from the polar regions in the East Greenland Current. When the multidecadal oscillatory variations of the thermohaline circulation are active, the first and second EOF patterns for the North Atlantic dynamic topography have predictability time scales on the order of 10–20 y, whereas EOF-1 of SST has predictability time scales of 5–7 y. When the thermohaline variability has weak multidecadal power, the Hasselmann mechanism is dominant and the predictability is reduced by at least a factor of two. When the third mechanism is in an extreme phase, the North Atlantic dynamic topography patterns realize a 10–20 year predictability time scale. Additional analysis of SST in the Greenland Sea, in a region associated with the southward propagating fresh water anomalies, indicates the potential for decadal scale predictability for this high latitude region as well. The model calculations also allow insight into regional variations of predictability, which might be useful information for the design of a monitoring system for the North Atlantic. Predictability appears to break down most rapidly in regions of active convection in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic. Received: 28 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 March 1997     

Reactive Nitrogen Compounds at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arctic

Simultaneousindependent measurements of NO_y and NO_x(NO_x= NO + NO₂) by high-sensitivitychemiluminescence systems and of PAN (peroxyacetylnitrate) and PPN (peroxypropionyl nitrate) by GC-ECDwere made at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arcticduring the first half year of 1994. The average mixingratio of the sum of PAN and PPN (denoted PANs)increased from around 150 pptv in early winter to amaximum of around 500 pptv in late March, whereasepisodic peak values reached 800 pptv. This occurredsimultaneously with a maximum in ozone which increasedto 45–50 ppbv in March–April. The average NO_xmixing ratio was 27 pptv and did not show any cyclethrough the period. The NO_y mixing ratio showeda maximum in late March, while the difference betweenNO_y and PAN decreased during spring. This is anindication of the dominance of PAN in the NO_ybudget in the Arctic, but possible changes in theefficiency of the NO_y converter could alsocontribute to this. Although most PAN in theArctic is believed to be due to long range transport,the observations indicate local loss and formationrates of up to 1–2 pptv h^-1 in April–May.Measurements of carbonyl compounds suggest thatacetaldehyde was the dominant, local precursor ofPAN.Now at 1.     

BLENDING HEIGHTS FOR WINDS OBLIQUE TO CHECKERBOARDS

Analysis of the two-dimensional checkerboardproblem of many alternating surfaces with different properties andvarious scales and aspect ratios is extended to the general case ofwinds oblique to the surface pattern. Relevant periodic solutions ofa three-dimensional atmospheric convection-diffusion equation arefound, and used to estimate blending heights for both concentrationand flux.Illustrative results show negligible directional effect on blendingheight for X1* (the smaller pattern wavelength) of 10 m, but a ratio of maximum/minimum heights of about 3 to 5 for X1* = 100 m. For X1* = 1000 mthe directional variation is strongly peaked with a maximum/minimum ratio of 8 to 14. At fixed X1* the maximum increases with check aspect ratio. It is associated withthe case where the wind blows along one check diagonal. In thatsingular situation, damping of the dominant harmonic varying normalto the diagonal depends purely on transverse and vertical diffusion:horizontal convection and wind shear play no part.     

The phase lag of temperature behind global solar radiation over Egypt

Summary The relation between the air temperature and the global solar radiation, which can be conveniently represented by the three characteristics: mean, amplitude and phase lag of the first harmonic of global radiation and air temperatures. A good correlation between the air temperature and the solar radiation has been found when the phase lag between them is nearly of 30 days.With 6 Figures     

Climatic and environmental reconstructions based on fossil assemblages from middle devensian (Weichselian) deposits of the river Thames at south kensington, central London, UK

Fossiliferous silts within the Late Pleistocene Kempton Park Gravel, of the River Thames Valley, were exposed in 1980 during foundation works for the Ismaili Centre in South Kensington, London. The results of a multidisciplinary study of the geomorphology, sediments, fossil plants, vertebrates, molluscs, ostracods and insects are reported. The silts were deposited under two distinct climatic regimes; a lower unit accumulated when the climate was arctic and an upper when the temperatures were at least as warm as those of the present day. Both these units occupy the same channel system and are separated from one another by less than a metre of sediment, implying that the climatic change was probably sudden and intense. The strongest evidence for this climatic difference comes from a study of the Coleoptera, which show an almost complete replacement of the arctic element in the fauna by a suite of temperate species. Palaeotemperature reconstructions using the Mutual Climatic Range method, based on the coleopteran assemblages from the lower unit, suggest that the mean temperature of the warmest month was 9±2 °C and that of the coldest month −22±10 °C. For the upper unit the mean temperature of the warmest month had risen to about 17 °C and that of the coldest month to about −4 °C. The episode represented by the lower unit, with its arctic climate, had not previously been recognized in the Thames Valley. The fauna from the upper, temperate, unit is very similar to that from other sites in the Kempton Park Gravel, such as that from Isleworth, 10 km upriver, which, like the upper unit at the Ismaili Centre, was characterized by the virtual absence of trees. It would appear that in such cases this treelessness does not indicate cold conditions, equivalent to those of the modern tundra, but may instead result from a combination of ecological and temporal factors. The value of multidisciplinary studies in reaching such conclusions is emphasized.The temperate episode described here is correlated with the thermal maximum at the early part of the Upton Warren Interstadial Complex. An earlier suggestion, based on amino acid epimerization ratios, that the Upton Warren Interstadial correlates with Oxygen Isotope Sub-stage 5a is not supported by the data, which show no evidence of the forested environments that characterized this period in both Britain and the adjacent Continent. It is thought that the temperate deposits at the Ismaili Centre belong to the Middle (Pleniglacial), rather than the Early, Devensian (Weichselian) and are equivalent to Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.     

Carbon cycling in a shallow turbid estuary of southeast Texas: The use of plant pigment biomarkers and water quality parameters

Particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and plant pigments (chlorophylls and carotenoids) were measured approximately bimonthly from March 1992 to October 1993 in the Sabine-Neches estuary (Sabine Lake region), located on the Texas-Louisiana border. High freshwater inflow into this shallow turbid estuary results in the shortest hydraulic residence time (ca. 7 d) of all Texas estuaries (Baskaran et al. in press). Annual averages of chlorophyll-a (3.0 μg l^?1) and particulate organic carbon (1.1 mg l^?1) in the water column were extremely low in comparison to other shallow estuaries. The highest chlorophyll-a concentrations were observed in October 1993, in the mid and lower regions of the estuary, during the lowest river discharge. Zeaxanthin and fucoxanthin concentrations suggested that much of the chlorophyll-a during this low flow period was represented by cyanobacteria and diatoms that entered from the Gulf of Mexico. The range of DOC concentrations was generally high (4.4–20.9 mg l^?1) and were significantly correlated with POC, but not with chlorophyll-a concentrations. When total suspended particulate (TSP) concentrations were below 20 to 30 mg l^?1, there were significant increases in %POC and %PON of the TSP. The unusually high POC: chlorophyll-a ratios (highest value of 1423) suggested that much of the POC contained low concentrations of chlorophyll-a that had degraded during transport from wetlands in the Sabine and Neches rivers. Based on these data, this estuary can be characterized as a predominantly heterotrophic system, with low light penetrance, short particle-residence times, high DOC, and low inputs from autochthonous carbon sources.     

Relationship of larval-stage growth and mortality to recruitment of striped bass,Morone saxatilis, in Chesapeake Bay

Variable recruitments of striped bass were hypothesized to be caused by factors influencing growth and survival of larvae. Eggs and larvae were collected in the Potomac River from 1987 to 1989 and in the Upper Chesapeake Bay in 1988 and 1989 to estimate abundances, larval growth and survival rates, and environmental variability. Larval batch dates, ages, and growth and mortality rates were estimated from analysis of otolith daily increments. A retrospective analysis of Potomae River ichthyoplankton data from 1974–1977 and 1980–1982 provided additional estimates of larval abundances and vital rates for comparative purposes. Significant correlations betweens vital rates (growth and mortality) and abundances of striped bass larvae, and the Maryland juvenile recruitment index indicated that recruitment level may be fixed during the larval stage. The ratio of mean daily growth and mortality rates (G:Z) of larvae in the Potomac River for 1987–1989 was highest in 1987 when the juvenile index was relatively high, and was lower in 1988 and 1989 when juvenile indices were low. In the Upper Bay, mean larval growth rate, survival rate, and the G:Z ratio were highest in 1989 when the juvenile index also was high. In both tributaries, abundances of late-stage larvae (8 mm SL) were correlated with juvenile-stage recruitment indices. The retrospective analysis provided additional evidence that Potomac River larval abundances and G:Z ratios were positively correlated with juvenile recruitment indices in the 1974–1977 and 1980–1982 periods. Conditions favoring striped bass larval abundance and potential recruitment differed between the Potomac River and the Upper Bay. In the Potomac, late-stage larval abundances coincided with late-season water temperatures that were relatively warm, low river discharges and high, late-season densities of zooplankton prey, which favored larval growth. In the Upper Bay, the high abundance of late-stage larvae in 1989 relative to 1988 was attributed to a higher egg production that was coincident with high zooplankton abundances.