The estimation of the shape of an array using a hidden Markov model

A hidden Markov model (HMM) technique for the estimation of the shape of a towed array is presented. It is assumed that there is a far-field source radiating sound containing possibly weak spectral lines. The technique uses either the Fourier coefficients at a given frequency computed from a single time block or the maximal eigenvector of a sample spectral covariance matrix. The technique is illustrated using several simulations. The results of these simulations indicate that the HMM technique yields shape and bearing estimates more accurate than those provided by a maximum-likelihood array shape estimation technique     

CONGRESS AND THE CHANGING DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL OUTLAYS,FY81-FY86*

Did Congressional influence play a role in the distribution of federal outlays between FY81 and FY86? This study hypothesizes that states with majority party House and Senate delegations and with seniority in the delegations experienced the largest increases in federal expenditures. These two hypotheses are tested for fifteen divisions of federal outlays using a stepwise regression model. The results provide only very modest evidence of any systematic Congressional influence over changes in the distribution of federal outlays during the study period.     

Late Oligocene-Miocene syn-/-late-orogenic successions in Western and Central Mediterranean Chains from the Betic Cordillera to the Southern Apennines*

The identification of syn- and late-orogenic flysch deposits, extending from the Betic Cordillera to the Southern Apennines, assists in the reconstruction of the tectonic-sedimentary evolution of the perimediterranean chains. A microplate was located between the European and African Plates during the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous, bordered northwards by the Piemontese Ocean and southwards by another (North Africa ‘Flysch’ Basin or Maghrebian) Ocean. The Piemontese Ocean and the northern margin of the microplate were structured from the Late Cretaceous to the Eocene to create an Eo-alpine Chain. The southern margin of the microplate was deformed in the Aquitanian, when the internal areas of the Maghrebian Ocean were characterized by syn-orogenic flysch deposits. This episode culminated with metamorphism (25–22 Ma) and nappe emplacement, which destroyed the former palaeogeography and created an orogenic belt (AlKaPeCa). Afterwards, a lower Burdigalian late-orogenic cycle started in the deformed area, which as a result of the opening of the Algero-Provençal Basin, caused the fragmentation of the AlKaPeCa, its thrusting on the ‘Flysch’ Basin and the collision with the North Africa and South Iberia Margins. These latter were folded and thrusted, the ‘Flysch’ Units pushed over the External Domain and also back-thrusted. Langhian late-orogenic deposits suture the new tectonic features. Finally, the whole orogen was thrust onto the foredeep during the Middle–Late Miocene.     

Transient response of a circular cavity in a poroelastic medium

This paper considers the transient response of a pressurized long cylindrical cavity in an infinite poroelastic medium. To obtain transient solutions, Biot's equations for poroelastodynamics are specialized for this problem. A set of exact general solutions for radial displacement, stresses, pore pressure and discharge are derived in the Laplace transform space by using analytical techniques. Solutions are presented for three different types of prescribed transient radial pressures acting on the surface of a permeable as well as an impermeable cavity surface. Time domain solutions are obtained by inverting Laplace domain solutions using a reliable numerical scheme. A detailed parametric study is presented to illustrate the influence of poroelastic material parameters and hydraulic boundary conditions on the response of the medium. Comparisons are also presented with the corresponding ideal elastic solutions to portray the poroelastic effects. It is noted that the maximum radial displacement and hoop stress at the cavity surface are substantially higher than the classical static solutions and differ considerably from the transient elastic solutions. Time histories and radial variations of displacement, hoop stress, pore pressure and fluid discharge corresponding to a cavity in two representative poroelastic materials are also presented.     

Shakedown in layered pavements under moving surface loads

Elastic–plastic deformations in pavements consisting of layers of different frictional materials are investigated. The upper bound, kinematic shakedown theorem is used to obtain estimates of the critical shakedown loads. Fully general three-dimensional deformations are considered. The influence of the loading distribution, interactions between loads, and the effect of varying the thickness, stiffness and strength of the layers are explored. Consequences of this investigation for particular existing designs of flexible pavements are investigated. In particular, it is found that the strength of the subgrade has no effect on the magnitude of the critical shakedown load.     

Upscaling of elastic properties for large scale geomechanical simulations

Large scale geomechanical simulations are being increasingly used to model the compaction of stress dependent reservoirs, predict the long term integrity of under‐ground radioactive waste disposals, and analyse the viability of hot‐dry rock geothermal sites. These large scale simulations require the definition of homogenous mechanical properties for each geomechanical cell whereas the rock properties are expected to vary at a smaller scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a new methodology that makes possible to define the equivalent mechanical properties of the geomechanical cells using the fine scale information given in the geological model. This methodology is implemented on a synthetic reservoir case and two upscaling procedures providing the effective elastic properties of the Hooke's law are tested. The first upscaling procedure is an analytical method for perfectly stratified rock mass, whereas the second procedure computes lower and upper bounds of the equivalent properties with no assumption on the small scale heterogeneity distribution. Both procedures are applied to one geomechanical cell extracted from the reservoir structure. The results show that the analytical and numerical upscaling procedures provide accurate estimations of the effective parameters. Furthermore, a large scale simulation using the homogenized properties of each geomechanical cell calculated with the analytical method demonstrates that the overall behaviour of the reservoir structure is well reproduced for two different loading cases. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geometry and kinematics of recent deformation in the Mondy–Tunka area (south-westernmost Baikal rift zone, Mongolia–Siberia)

We used satellite imagery and field data to investigate the south‐westernmost Baikal rift zone. We focus our study in the Mondy and Ikhe Ukhgun valleys, site of an Mw = 6.9 seismic event in 1950. Surface deformations are observed along the E–W‐trending Mondy strike‐slip fault and along the Ikhe Ukhgun thrust. The Mondy fault system is 80 km long and is composed of four segments 10–15 km long. These segments are characterized by subvertical planes with left‐lateral movements. The Ikhe Ukhgun thrust is 20 km long, dips 40° to the south and shows reverse movement with a left‐lateral component. These observations are consistent with the present‐day regional NNE–SSW compression and with the focal mechanism of the 1950 Mondy earthquake that was recently re‐evaluated. These features, like those observed in the Tunka basin, demonstrate a recent change of regional strain regime from transtension to transpression that we place before the Late Pleistocene.     

Preliminary organic petrography of Palaeozoic rocks from the Grand Banks,Newfoundland

Samples of lower Palaeozoic bedrock from the Grand Banks of Newfoundland were examined using reflected light microscopy and Rock-Eval pyrolysis. These samples contained organic material which included bitumen (structureless organic material), acritarchs, chitinozoa, scolecodonts and graptolites. The reflectance of the organic material increased from acritarchs towards graptolites with bitumen showing a wide range of reflectance. Multiple phases of oil migration through one sample were inferred by examination of the bitumens: the lowest reflecting being more recent than the highest reflecting bitumen. Combined reflectance and Rock-Eval analysis indicate that these samples are mature to overmature. The two oldest samples (Arenig-Llanvirn, Ordovician) are assessed as mature and as having potential for generation of liquid hydrocarbons, but must be considered as mainly gas prone.     

The interannual leading modes of the extratropical variability in the Southern Hemisphere simulated by the ECHAM-4 atmospheric model

 An ensemble of twenty-three 14-year experiments conducted with the ECHAM-4 GCM has been examined to test the model's capability to simulate the principal modes of interannual variability. The integrations were performed under specified monthly SST between 1979–1993. The analysis was focused on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis (EOF) using seasonal anomaly fields has been performed to isolate the principal modes that dominate the southern extratropical variability at the interannual time scale. Leading patterns of 500 hPa geopotential height (z500) have been compared with those estimated from the ECMWF re-analysis dataset. The model is able to adequately reproduce the spatial pattern of the annular mode, but it represents the temporal variations of the oscillation less satisfactorily. The model simulation of the Pacific South American (PSA) pattern is better, both in the shape of the pattern and in the temporal evolution. To verify if the capability of the model to adequately simulate the temporal oscillation of the propagating patterns is related to the increased influence of the tropical external forcing, covarying SST-atmospheric modes have been identified by singular value decomposition (SVD). In winter (July-August-September, JAS) the tropical SST variability is highly correlated with the ENSO mode. In summer (January-February-March, JFM) the strength of the teleconnections is related to strong westerly anomalies, disrupted by a meridional out of phase relation near to South America. The large size of the ensemble was exploited by comparing the time-varying model spread and degrees of freedom of the simulated extratropical circulation. Results show that when the extratropical circulation has a few degrees of freedom, the reproducibility is relatively low and the ensemble is governed by a fairly robust zonally symmetric structure of dispersion. Received: 9 May 2000 / Accepted: 30 January 2001     

Long-term seismicity of Istanbul and of the Marmara Sea region

We examine the long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in Turkey over a period of twenty centuries to attempt to answer two questions: (1) how well recorded in history is the earthquake activity of this region? and (2) does seismicity over this long period of time differ from that over the present century? We study this densely-populated and fast-developing region because it is one of the most tectonically active regions on the continents that appears today to be relatively quiescent.