基于位置误差的分布制作热带气旋路径袭击概率预报

为了探讨热带气旋路径预报的不确定性,利用2004-2007年4年中央气象台综合预报的误差分布状况,建立热带气旋路径综合预报的统计集合模型,制作热带气旋路径的袭击概率预报及产品,并为警报发布工作中有关登陆地段的预报提供有意义的参考.     

云南曲靖地区古生代可能经历过反时针旋转

攀西古裂谷带的概念尽管在地质同行中仍未取得一致意见,但是,川西滇东地区存在着近乎南北向断裂带的事实却已为大家所接受。本文仅对分布在曲靖地区某些古生代地层的古地磁学测定结果,就这个地区的构造活动特征提出初步的看法。     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of     

CARBON DYNAMICS OF WETLAND IN THE SANJIANG PLAIN

1INTRODUCTIONWetlandsplayanimportant roleintheprocessofcar-bonstorage.Thetotalcarbonstoredindifferentkindsofwetlandsisabout15%-35%ofthetotalcarboninthegloballandsoils(POSTetal.,1982;GORHAM,1991).Inaddition,wetlandsaresignificantnaturalsources fortheatmospheric CH4 (MOORE,1994).It isestimatedthatabout110×1012gCH4 originates fromanaerobicdecompositioninthenaturalwetlands,CH4 emission fromthenaturalwetlandsis15%-30%oftheglobalCH4 emission andtheCH4 emission from thepeat land at hi…     

Some experiments with multivariate objective analysis scheme of heights and winds using optimum interpolation

A two-dimensional, multitvariate objective analysis scheme for simultaneous analysis of geopotential height and wind fields has been developed over Indian and adjoining region for use in numerical weather prediction. The height-height correlations calculated using daily data of four July months (1976-1979), are used to derive the other autocorrelations and cross-correlations assuming geostropic relationship. A Gaussian function is used to model the autocorrelation function. Since the scheme is multivariate the regression coefficients (weights) are matrix.Near the equator, the geostrophic approximation relating mass and wind is decoupled in a way similar to Bergman (1979). The objective analyses were made over Indian and adjoining region for 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979, 12 GMT. The analyses obtained using multivariate optimum in-terpolation scheme depict the synoptic situations satisfactorily. The analyses were also compared with the FGGE ana-lyses (from ECMWF) and also with the station observations by computing the root mean square (RMS) errors and the RMS errors are comparable with those obtained in other similar studies.     

西澳大利亚较老的前寒武纪地质年代学

在西澳大利亚,太古宙这个名词一般应用在早于2400Ma的岩层,这与最近由前寒武地层分会提出的2500Ma界线是有一定偏差的(James,《前寒武纪研究》,7,193—204页:1978)。无论应用那个标准,西澳大利亚地盾的二个最老部分—皮尔巴拉(Pilbara)和伊尔冈地块—在太古宙期间就已清楚确立。上述两个地块均以典型的绿岩—花岗岩类为主所组成,其中许多花岗岩类深成岩由含高比例火山岩同时形成的绿岩带所包     

河流-湖泊三角洲相砂岩成岩作用的重建及其对储层物性演化的影响

延长油区侏罗系和上三叠统河流-湖泊三角洲相砂岩储层的物性受沉积相及埋藏-成岩作用的控制. 河流相砂岩的物性好于三角洲相砂岩(平均孔隙度和平均渗透率分别为14.8%和12.7×10-3μm2, 9.8%和5.8×10-3μm2). 埋藏压实作用是导致砂岩孔隙丧失的主要原因. 碳酸盐是造成砂岩物性降低的主要胶结物. 晚期成岩阶段富含有机酸和无机酸的酸性孔隙流体及表生成岩阶段的大气降水是形成次生孔隙及导致砂岩物性改善的主要介质.     

The 13th and 14th Workshops on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate

<正>1.Overview In July 2018, the Antarctic community came together to meet at the 13th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) in Madison, Wisconsin, USA (Fig. 1); and in the following year in June 2019, the 14th WAMC was held in     

The Role of β-effect and a Uniform Current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

A limited-area primitive equation model is used to study the role of the β-effect and a uniform current on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity.It is found that TC intensity is reduced in a non-quiescent environment compared with the case of no uniform current.On an f-plane,the rate of intensification of a tropical cyclone is larger than that of the uniform flow.A TC on a β-plane intensifies slower than one on an f-plane.The main physical characteristic that distinguishes the experiments is the asymmetric thermodynamic (including convective) and dynamic structures present when either a uniform flow or β-effect is introduced.But a fairly symmetric TC structure is simulated on an f-plane.The magnitude of the warm core and the associated subsidence are found to be responsible for such simulated intensity changes.On an f-plane,the convection tends to be symmetric,which results in strong upper-level convergence near the center and hence strong forced subsidence and a very warm core.On the other hand,horizontal advection of temperature cancels part of the adiabatic heating and results in less warming of the core,and hence the TC is not as intense.This advective process is due to the tilt of the vortex as a result of the β-effect.A similar situation occurs in the presence of a uniform flow.Thus,the asymmetric horizontal advection of temperature plays an important role in the temperature distribution.Dynamically,the asymmetric angular momentum (AM) flux is very small on an f-plane throughout the troposphere.However,the total AM exports at the upper levels for a TC either on aβ-plane or with a uniform flow environment are larger because of an increase of the asymmetric as well as symmetric AM export on the plane at radii ＞450 km,and hence there is a lesser intensification.     

西北地区不同类型云的时空分布及其与降水的关系

利用1983年7月～2001年9月国际卫星云气候计划ISCCP D2的月平均资料,对西北不同区域不同类型云的云量和云水路径的时空分布及其与降水的关系进行了研究。结果表明：高原气候区是各种云出现最多的地区,特别是积状云的云量明显高于其他两区,但这些云的云水路径值低;西北地区大多数云云量的高值区出现在天山山区、北疆地区、陕西东南部和青藏高原的部分地区。高云和部分中云云量空间分布特征与降水有着较好的一致性：沿着天山—昆仑山—祁连山一带以及陕南和／或陇南地区是高值区,低值区在塔里木盆地—内蒙古西部戈壁沙漠—黄土高原西北部一带;绝大多数云类春夏季节云量维持较高,秋冬季节云量较少。云水路径值较大的层状云类的云量多寡与降水多寡相一致;积状云类和层积云类云量多少与降水没有一定的关系,在降水偏少时,这类云的云量大多与降水正常时相近,有些云的云量甚至比降水偏多时还要多。